Hello, and welcome to Fix the Planet. Don’t be deluded that the pandemic is going to reverse the long-term trend of rising global carbon emissions, warns Angela Merkel. The German chancellor was in forthright form on Tuesday at the 11th Petersberg climate dialogue, an annual meeting to boost international climate action.
I don’t usually cover climate diplomacy in this newsletter. However, the virtual meeting was a key one given the seniority of speakers – including Merkel and the UN secretary general António Guterres – and the fact the coronavirus has meant many key milestones in international climate negotiations have been cancelled or postponed.
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Angela Merkel at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue. Photo: Michael Kappeler / Getty
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So what did they say?
Merkel drew several links between the coronavirus crisis and climate change, including the need for multilateralism. “The coronavirus pandemic shows us, yet again, albeit in a painful way, that international cooperation is essential, is crucial,” she said. While noting carbon dioxide emissions were temporarily down, she cautioned: “That does not mean we are able to reverse the trend.” Merkel, who has been hesitant in the past to throw Germany’s backing behind the European Union’s for a more ambitious climate target, said she supported the bloc’s proposed goal of cutting emissions by 50 to 55 per cent by 2030. Notably, she also said it was important countries remain committed to submitting new ambitious plans for cutting emissions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We’re stuffed without stronger NDCs - the current ones would see the world warm by more than 3°C.
And Guterres?
He was combative and strongly tied the pandemic to action on cutting emissions. “Like the coronavirus, greenhouse gas respects no boundaries. Isolationism is a trap,” he said. In particular, he said any covid-19 financial stimulus must be linked to greening economies at the same time. Like Merkel, he called for new NDCs. The big polluters of the world were “key to tackling the climate crisis”, he said, adding the 2015 Paris deal wouldn’t have been possible without the US and China. Without the big emitters, he warned efforts risk being “doomed”.
So what did the meeting achieve?
“There was some forward-leaning language from all of them, about the need for new, more ambitious targets and the need for a green financial stimulus. The acid test will be whether those are delivered,” says Pete Betts at the European Climate Foundation, who was the UK’s chief climate negotiator until 2018. Imke Lübbeke at WWF Europe says there was a welcome, strong commitment from Merkel and Guterres that any recovery should be a green one. “Merkel was very clear, saying we should not delay [climate] action,” she adds. She was pleased to see the chancellor backing the EU’s tougher climate target, but argues it isn’t enough – Lübbeke wants to see a 65 per cent cut instead of 50 to 55 per cent.
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UN secretary general António Guterres says we are "doomed" without climate action by big emitters.
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What about those new climate plans, the NDCs?
Officially, governments need to submit a new NDC before the end of this year, according to the timetable set out by the Paris agreement. So far, just eight countries have done so. Japan, one of the eight, hasn’t even increased its ambition. Moreover, those countries represent less than 3 per cent of emissions. Nicholas Stern at the London School of Economics says: “I do think the more we can get strong NDCs through this year the better.” He says the EU will be key to influencing what China does. He adds that, while it would be good if the enhanced NDCs are delivered on time, it would be a worthwhile trade-off if they came a little late, but strong.
Don’t we also need action from the US?
Yes. The US was notably absent from this week’s meeting, as it has been since president Donald Trump took office in 2017. While the US is on course to withdraw from the Paris agreement in November, a victory for his rival Joe Biden would overturn that. The expectation is a Biden presidency would see a big ramping-up of international climate action. Some major countries are waiting to see what happens in the US election before making their own decisions, observers think.
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