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Princeton Gerrymandering Project

Update - May 1, 2020

Redistricting timelines have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. In mid-April, the Census Bureau requested congressional action that would likely delay the arrival of redistricting data until July 31, 2021. The upcoming elections in New Jersey (for both state legislative chambers) and Virginia (for only the House of Delegates) are illustrative: they are the sole off-year state legislative elections that could be affected by the proposed delay in 2021. 

The requested delay would see data arrive over a month after the scheduled primaries in New Jersey and Virginia, in June 2021. According to Common Cause, under this timeline, the data would also come after constitutional deadlines in a few states (e.g. Arkansas) and slightly before deadlines in others (e.g. California).

The reality of quarantine complicates the Census, and subsequent redrawing of electoral lines. How will governments respond to an uncertain situation? There are several possibilities
First, both states could try to schedule their primaries right before the November 2021 general election.

However, given probable delays in map-drawing, this is likely infeasible.

There are statutory requirements which mandate times for candidate filings and mail-in ballots. In any event, to make this route available, significant bipartisan legislation or a court order would likely be required.
Second, the states could use other, non-census data to draw maps. While possible, this may not be favorable to reform-minded advocates. Indeed, the use of non-census data could lead to malapportionment and underrepresentation of vulnerable communities.
 
Third, both states could run 2021 elections under the old maps, and use maps drawn in 2021 for the state legislative elections in 2023. Arguably, this is the most likely outcome. If the most recent population estimates do not show significant demographic shifts since the 2010 census, this could buttress claims for a “two more years under old maps” approach. 
 
While a delayed census may have serious short-term consequences, an incorrect census would likely have negative long-term repercussions.

However, there is a silver lining for reformers. As Justin Levitt has
pointed out, even before the pandemic, the Census Bureau had innovated remote-access pathways for data collection: by mail, by phone, and online. Each of these digital vectors avoids door-to-door interaction. Such flexibility will be required in the coming months, as data-gathering and map-making adapt to an altered political landscape.

To fill out the census online, click here.
Copyright © 2020 Princeton Gerrymandering Project, All rights reserved.


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