Until now, the weekly unemployment claims have been pretty much the most substantial piece of hard data that we've had on the economic impact of COVID-19. After another round of 4 million claims, that data is now pointing to the loss of more than 30 million jobs across the US.
To add to that, this week we got the preliminary estimate of US GDP for the first quarter of 2020, and it didn't make for pretty reading. The BEA estimates that real GDP slipped at a rate of 4.8% for the period January-to-March, with similar declines in European economies.
We've charted that decline relative to the last 50 years of US data, which reveals that it's the 4th worst-quarter since 1970, but not quite as bad as the depths of the GFC.
Not so bad then?
Unfortunately, it is. That Q1 number captures economic activity for 3 months, only the last of which (March) saw significant disruption from COVID-19. For most of January and February the economy was operating relatively "normally", albeit with some modest travel restrictions.
It seems very likely that the second quarter of this year could see real GDP fall at a rate of 15%, 20% or even 30%. If true, those numbers would make the fourth-quarter of 2008, when real GDP fell at a rate of ~8%, look "relatively benign".
The fact that the US stock market just booked its best month since 1987 suggests that the stimulus provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks has detached the stock market from economic fundamentals in a way that has probably never happened before in history. Hold onto your hats.
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