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Recent reports from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity have outlined the number of unemployment claims filed, but they haven't told us much about who is filing the claims. In the five weeks ending April 4, 2020 (the latest date for which detailed data is available), more than 100,000 Tampa Bay residents made an initial claim for re-employment assistance.   
 

Today, we're taking a closer look at the detailed data behind those claims.


While this information will require continued monitoring as new data is posted, our initial analysis provides detailed insight into the people, occupations and industries most heavily impacted by the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here’s what we found. 
  • In terms of job loss, Tampa Bay may be faring slightly better than Orlando, South Florida or the state as a whole, but the economic crisis is having a disproportionate impact on women and younger, less educated workers in our region.
  • At this point, unemployment claims are largely concentrated in the industries and occupations most impacted by stay-at-home orders and social distancing measures.
  • Geographically, unemployment claims are concentrated in the region’s traditional urban working-class neighborhoods.
Keep reading to learn more.

Claims by Region

With 100,176 claims for re-employment assistance, commonly known as unemployment benefits, the Tampa Bay region accounts for a slightly smaller share of initial claims (21.6%) than its collective share of the state’s labor force (22.1%).

A smaller percentage of Tampa Bay’s working residents have filed claims than those in Orlando, South Florida or the state as a whole.

Claims by Sex

Tampa Bay and Jacksonville see a larger share of female claimants than their labor force composition would suggest, reinforcing concerns that women in the region are being disproportionately impacted by the economic crisis. In Tampa Bay, female workers account for 56.76% of the labor force, and 60.95% of initial claims.

Claims by Race

Claims by race and ethnicity currently mirror, for the most part, existing labor force demographics in each metro area. If, as reported, people are having challenges filing claims, and those challenges are spread equally across the population, then these numbers will likely remain stable as new claims data is released. If, however, minority populations have had more difficulty filing claims, we may see these numbers change over time. 

Claims by Age

The share of claimants aged 34 years and younger far outpaces their share of the labor force in each of Florida’s metro areas. These younger workers are less likely to have other work experience to fall back on, and likewise, less formal education. In Tampa Bay, younger workers account for only 33.94% of the labor force but represent 41.57% of claims.

Claims by Educational Attainment

In all of Florida’s major metro areas, workers with lower levels of education hold a larger share of the jobs lost as a result of the economic crisis. In Tampa Bay, workers with a high school education or less account for 29.08% of the labor force, and 39.41% of initial claims.

Claims by Industry

The hardest-hit industries represent 25.58% of the jobs in Tampa Bay, but 58.54% of the unemployment claims.
The category of “Other Services” includes automotive repair, dry cleaners, hairdressers and barbers.
 
 A number of other industries that have a significant presence in the region are far less represented in the claims data. These industries account for 28.63% of regional jobs, and just 6.18% of claims.

Claims by Occupation

The hardest-hit occupational groups account for 22.61% of the jobs in Tampa Bay, and 53.96% of the unemployment claims.
The Management category likely constitutes managers of workers in other heavily-impacted occupational groups. In Health Care support, potential claimants are likely concentrated in non-urgent care, such as Medical/Dental Assistants and Occupational/Physical Therapy Assistants.
 
 A number of other occupations that have a significant presence in the region are far less represented in the claims data. These occupational groups account for 12.4% of regional jobs, and just 4.25% of the claims.
Demographic Analysis
Our demographic analysis of claims data has shown a disproportionate distribution across measures of sex (women), age (35 and younger) and educational attainment (high school education or less).
Economic Analysis
Our economic analysis of claims data has shown a significant impact in industries and occupations most susceptible to closures due to stay-at-home orders and social distancing measures.
Claims by Zip Code
The map below shows Tampa Bay unemployment claims by the claimant's ZIP code of residence, normalized by labor force. (This measure provides an estimate of recent unemployment claims relative to the supply of workers in each ZIP code, thereby accounting for densely populated areas, or areas with a significant portion of retirees, children, etc.) The darker shades indicate a higher concentration of claims.
In Tampa Bay, claims have been concentrated among residents of traditional urban working-class neighborhoods such as Holiday, New Port Richey, West Tampa, Town N County, and Central St. Petersburg. The likely effects of amusement park and hotel closures are seen in eastern Polk County, where claims through April 4 accounted for more than 10% of the labor force in some ZIP codes.

An interactive version of this map showing detailed claim, labor force, and claims as a share of labor force data by Tampa Bay ZIP code is available by clicking the map image above or visiting the link below.
VIEW CLAIMS BY ZIP CODE
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Data reported in this email are believed to be the latest available at the time of production, accurate and from reliable sources. For more information, please contact Dave Sobush.



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