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Hi there,

For 2.5 years, we have sent out this newsletter mostly on Thursdays.

We tested several days throughout the week but our data suggest that Thursdays give us the highest possible opening rate. We don’t know why. For whatever reason, you prefer to read our content on Thursday.

But today is Wednesday, you might say.

Correct, but after week 10 in home office, every day feels the same. I’ve lost the handle over what day it is. I thought today was Thursday but it’s not. I sent it anyway. Forgive me.

Now, what do we have for you today?  

We set out on an extensive research task to come up with an educated guess on the likelihood of a V-curve vs. U-curve vs. L-curve recovery for the travel industry.

The full article is a slightly longer read (12 min), so we keep the rest of the newsletter short. Enjoy.

Lennart Dobravsky
Director Research & Intelligence, Lufthansa Innovation Hub

Research

The travel industry's recovery mode

There has been a single question on everyone’s lips in the Travel and Mobility Tech industry for quite some time: how will we recover from the Covid-19 pandemic that has slammed travel in ways we’ve never seen before?

Two months ago, my colleague Kolin took a first shot at this question by analyzing several early indicators for travel demand, particularly week-over-week app download trends for various travel segments in China.

You might remember this chart:

We saw that China had quickly overcome the initial Covid-19 panic phase and was gradually entering recovery mode following a return of travel interest.

Over the following weeks, flight capacity in China returned to around 60% of pre-crisis levels with the overall trend line inching slowly upwards.

This was an encouraging sign. One that we hoped could apply to the global travel industry.

However, reality showed that it's not that simple.

With more data at hand, we are now able to draw a much more comprehensive picture to outline some major future scenarios on how the travel industry might recover down the road.

Take a look at the full analysis with many more charts and share your feedback with us on Linkedin and Twitter.

Read in full

Press Picks

Our recommended must reads

THE FUTURE OF TRAVEL – The NYT talked to dozens of experts, from academics to tour operators and airport architects to help answer 14 of the most pressing questions about travel’s future.
Read in NYT

WHAT TRAVELERS THINK – Most countries are nearing the end of the lockdown phase, and consumers cannot wait to start traveling again according to BCG's latest sentiment survey.
Read more by BCG

YOU DON'T GET SICK ON AIRPLANES – The ventilation system requirements for airplanes meet the levels recommended for use with Covid-19 patients in airborne infection isolation rooms.
Read more in the Washington Post

THE BRIGHT SIDE – Chris Hemmeter, MD at travel- and transportation-focused venture capital firm Thayer Ventures, discusses the opportunities Covid-19 has created in the travel industry and whether it will change consumer behavior.
Read more in Phocuswire

THE DARK SIDE – Though there is evidence of pent-up travel demand in the U.S., travel’s great depression is looming as monumental job losses for the sector will take a long time to come back to pre-pandemic levels.
Read more in Skift

Deal Tracker

Most recent Venture Capital deals

= Exit Alert (startup listed at the stock exchange or got acquired)

= Unicorn Alert (post-deal company valuation at >$1B)

Waymo – the US-based self-driving unit of Alphabet raised $750M from T. Rowe Price Associates Inc., Perry Creek Capital, and Fidelity Management & Research Co.

Bolt – the Estonia-based startup offering on-demand ridesharing, scooters and other transportation services raised $109M from Naya Capital Management.

Hopper – the Canadian travel booking startup emphasizing price prediction raised $70M from Westcap, Inovia, and further investors.

Selina – the London-based hotel and co-working startup raised $60M from undisclosed investors.

Fly Now Pay Later – the UK-based fintech startup which allows people to spread out the cost of their holiday trips raised $43M from Revenio Capital, Shawbrook Bank, and BCI Finance.

Zeus Living – the US-based rental startup raised $15M from CEAS Investments, Initialized Capital Management, and Soros Fund Management.

VanMoof – the Dutch e-bike startup raised $13.5M from Balderton Capital and SINBON Electronics.

Run the World – the US-based virtual event startup raised $10.8M from a16z and Founders Fund.

Handiscover – the Sweden-based accommodation startups dedicated to people with special needs and disabilities raised $1.7M from the European Innovation Council.

Jufeng Networks – the Chinese short video service provider for travel videos raised an undisclosed amount.