CONVENTION CONTROVERSY

Last Week, Maggie Haberman & Annie Karni reported that the GOP was quietly looking into scaling back the RNC in August,

…behind the scenes, Republicans are looking at possible contingency plans, including limiting the number of people who descend on Charlotte to only delegates, and making alternate delegates stay home, according to interviews with a half-dozen Republicans close to the planning.

The New York Times

I will admit, this seemed very un-Trump. The President has long loved is rallies which have been but on hold during the COVID-19 outbreak. The idea that he would miss an opportunity to speak to a large crowd of support seemed unusual. Then a poll commissioned by the Republican-backed Carolina Partnership For Reform found that a majority of North Carolinians wanted the convention to happen in August,

 57% of North Carolinians want the convention to go ahead as planned with only a slim majority of Democrats wanting Governor Cooper to cancel the event.

CPFRNC

What seems almost unbelievable is that more North Carolinians support the convention happening than the next college football season which only has 38% support. It’s impossible to know if this poll played a role but The President yesterday morning threatened to pull the RNC from North Carolina if Cooper doesn’t provide assurances to the GOP,

It wasn’t just President Trump who floating the idea yesterday of moving the RNC. Vice President Mike Pence explored the idea on Fox & Friends as well,

“Having a sense now is absolutely essential because of the immense preparations that are involved,” Pence said. “If need be, [we’ll move] the national convention to a state that is farther along on reopening and can say with confidence that we can gather there.”

Fox & Friends

Many believe this is Trump just being Trump. Making a threat on Twitter in the hopes he won’t have to actually act on it. At first, I wasn’t sure this was the case. There is a legit concern North Carolina under Cooper’s leadership could keep the convention from happening at full scale. However, Philip Klein had a good point on Twitter today,
 

It’s an especially empty threat given that Charlotte was the only city publicly willing to take RNC in the first place. And that was before the pandemic. - @PhilipKlein

I completely forgot about the lack of options for the GOP when they were city shopping last year. This does complicate matters greatly for Trump and the GOP. When times were good they had very few options, now after a shutdown you have to wonder how many cities would be willing to shut down just as things would be getting back to normal for a giant convention that will undoubtedly bring with it a lot of controversies. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Charlotte was happy Trump wants to move the convention.

Time is running out, so if the GOP is going to move they are going to have to decide soon. I think the odds are that the GOP stays in Charlotte with a smaller impact than originally thought. Then again, making firm predictions when it comes to Trump is never a wise choice.

SIDE NOTE: Considering the ongoing political component of the urban/rural divide. It would be kind of cool if the GOP chose a smaller city to hold a more scaled-down version of the convention. Obviously the city couldn’t be too small because there are certain logistical concerns that must be met, but it would be extremely outside the box both literally and figuratively. Sure, Trump might not like it because the crowd would be smaller, but think of the benefits it would bring to a smaller town that could be way more Republican than any big city. Just a thought.

THE FINANCIAL TOLL OF COVID-19

It’s not that anyone needed to be told that things economically are bad across the state. However, it is important to quantify the economic damage COVID-19 has had on the state of North Carolina.

On Friday, the state’s unemployment rate skyrocketed to over 12%,

The seasonally adjusted rate of 12.2% represents a nearly 8-point increase from March. The national rate for April was 14.7%.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics said it’s the highest seasonally adjusted rate for North Carolina since 1976 when it began keeping records in the manner it currently does. Numerous other states also hit records. The previous North Carolina record was 11.4% for multiple months in 2010, according to state data.

WRAL

Inevitably as more and more people are unemployed revenue to the state will drop as well. Considering income tax is more than 50% of the state’s total revenue, this creates a very large hole in the state’s budget. On Friday, the Governor’s office working in tangent with the General Assembly released some pretty dire numbers,

North Carolina’s tax revenues will likely come in nearly $5 billion below what lawmakers expected just three months ago because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

WRAL

North Carolina is not alone, in fact the national unemployment rate in April was 14.7%. Whether or not we thought it would be this bad, we are here now. The big question is how quickly do we recover? While the thought of a v-shaped recovery has long passed. A recovery in a year or two is not completely out of the question. The really good news for North Carolina is that, unlike 2009, the state’s trusts funds are flush and when the recovery does start we won’t be in a two billion dollar hole. Let’s hope voters remember which party is responsible for that in November. (Hint: It was the Republicans)

The ‘Liberal Leaning’ Media Has Passed Its Tipping Point

This poses significant problems not only for Mr. Trump but for the media’s own standing." WSJ