COVID-19, Climate, and Resilience
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Coronavirus and climate change. Very quickly it became obvious that the COVID-19 situation has a lot to teach us about responding to climate change. One lesson is that if you wait until the pain is severe, you have missed the time when you should have already been acting. The most effective way to address the problem is to take dramatic actions, which might themselves involve high costs, before you are severely suffering. Dr. Howard Kunreuther, Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Risk Management and Decision Center Processes Center and Dr. Paul Slovic, president of Decision Research and professor of psychology at the University of Oregon laid this out very clearly in their article “What the Coronavirus Curve Teaches Us About Climate Change.” Unfortunately for our future, they note that humans do very poorly at understanding the whole concept of “exponential growth” and how it impacts our future. One of the most effective ways to overcome this limited decision-making framework that evolution seems to have created in us is through science and statistics—the key tools we have used to understand the future impacts of climate change and sea-level rise (CC/SLR). This reaffirms how much we need to be working to re-establish greater public awareness of, understanding of, and “belief” in the importance of science and scientists.
A second lesson, flowing from the first, is that even in CC/SLR and the current pandemic, people naturally care most and pay the most attention to the places and people closest to them. Climate communication research has demonstrated that the most important source of information about CC/SLR for many are family and close friends. And we have seen that CC/SLR awareness developed first in SE Florida in part due to the severity of the early impacts happening right there. And with COVID-19, many are paying the closest attention to the impacts in their city, county, or state, not across the world in other countries. We tend to be local by nature. So, CC/SLR should learn the lesson of making the context local.
Third, we can learn that there is a difference between having a plan and implementing it. By all accounts, the United States had spent considerable time and resources planning on how to react to a global pandemic. However, this plan and those who developed it do not appear to have been fully mobilized. Rather, changed priorities led to systemic changes within our government that eliminated the office charged with preparing the United States for addressing a pandemic. In Florida, we have seen greater willingness to acknowledge CC/SLR at the state level with a change of state administration even as at the national level we have seen the opposite. And many local governments now have or are developing CC/SLR plans. However, as the pandemic has demonstrated, plans will have little value without effective implementation.
This leads directly to a fourth lesson we can learn from comparing the current pandemic with CC/SLR: political affiliations, cultural affiliations, and news sources seem to determine peoples’ beliefs and attitudes about issues more than scientific information. How to address this remains a challenge. Provision of more scientific information does not change this dynamic; cognitive research has even indicated that relying on more and more scientific information to reach those that disagree actually exacerbates this dynamic. Maybe the best prescription in such a case is what CC/SLR advocates—and Extension generally—seek to do to reach difficult audiences: find messengers that the audience already trusts, preferably messengers that look and sound like the audience and share cultural, religious, economic, or geographic reference points. These messengers are far more likely to “reach” an audience with scientific information than are “experts” that the audience does not feel resemble the audience itself.
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