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At a national level, hydro storage is still substantially (1400 GWh) above the watch curve and risk curves are now declining through to spring. Because of this the chance of crossing the risk curves is currently low.
Over the past week hydro storage continued to decline, decreasing by 2% nationally to sit at 81% of average. Currently the North Island average storage level for June is the fourth lowest since 1926. While inflows over the past week provided some relief, we are currently just above the bottom 10% of national storage positions for this time of year. This combined with demand peaking over winter is contributing to spot prices regularly trading in the $200–$400/MWh range. As we expect in times of below-average hydro storage and high prices, thermal generation is high, at 61% of capacity over the previous week compared to 35% a month ago. This enables conservation of hydro storage. Thermal fuel supply remains healthy and less constrained than in recent years.
Cumulative Inflows for the year to date are currently 71% of average for the North Island and 98% of average for the South Island. However when comparing just the past 30 days, South Island inflows have dropped to 73% of average.
Nationally weekly demand is 823 GWh, which is within the range we would expect at this time of year.
Advice relating to Todd Generation’s Junction Road Peaker Plant
Todd Generation have informed us that their Junction Road Peaker Plant is experiencing infrequent issues associated with short-term atmospheric conditions. They are seeking a resolution with their manufacturer but until then Nova will only offer Junction Road if they are confident the plant can run and occasionally this may mean it is offered at short notice. We thank Todd and Nova for their openness and permission to make this information public.
Security of Supply – Outlook to 2030: Workshop 28 July 10 am – 12 pm
Update: This workshop will now be held at Transpower's Wellington office with an option to participate online. We look forward to seeing you there. Further information is available here.
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