New Response Rate Metric to Help Manage Get-Out-The-Count Efforts During the Extended 2020 Self-Response Timeframe
This email update includes:
- Dynamic new metric to track self-response rates.
- Other resources analyzing the latest 2020 Census response rates.
- Our latest analysis of the nation's self-response rate trends.
Quantifying how many households need to self-respond to meet each community's final 2010 response rate goal
We have added a new feature to the CUNY HTC/Response Rate map to help census stakeholders measure the progress of local Get Out the Count (GOTC) efforts to boost 2020 Census participation: a dynamic metric to quantify how many households need to self-respond to meet each local community's final 2010 response rate goal.
(We'll be adding another new feature soon to help with GOTC efforts; stay tuned!)
Here's what the new metric looks like, with three examples (based on response rates as of June 18). The first is for Tract 8435 in Chicago, IL. The left-hand panel at this map shows that if an average of 1.2 households per day fill out the census by July 31, the tract will meet its 2010 rate. Hopefully this is more manageable & actionable than comparing the final rate (52.1%) with the current rate (37.2%).
If a tract has already achieved its 2010 rate, we display that info as well, such as in Tract 3301.01 in Chicago:
We display the same information for each county and city. This link, and the screenshot below, show that for Chicago overall, if only 3 households, on average, fill out the census form per tract (across each of the city's 793 tracts) per day between now and July 31, the city would meet its 2010 goal.
There are still more than 4 months remaining in the extended self-response timeframe that the Census Bureau established in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Householders can self-respond through October 31, 2020, although the Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) (door-knocking) operation to count non-responding households in person will begin on August 11 and continue through the end of October. This means that households can take advantage of the self-response option for an additional three months compared to the original pre-COVID-19 census schedule.
The new HTC/Response Rate map feature is designed to provide stakeholder groups with a manageable and measurable metric at the local level to track progress during the remaining self-response timeframe.
A goal of many groups and local public officials is to meet and possibly surpass their community's final 2010 self-response rate. Simply comparing that rate with the current self-response percentage may not provide tangible markers for local groups with limited resources to determine how many households they need to convince to respond in order to meet the 2010 goal.
Therefore, the map now displays for each census tract (as shown in the examples above) the estimated number of households that would need to complete the census each day, on average, between now and July 31 (the formal end of the Self-Response Operation, before census takers begin knocking on doors) to meet the tract's 2010 response rate. This information is also shown by city and county as the average number of households per day per tract that would need to fill out the census to meet the city or county's 2010 goal.
REMEMBER: this new metric is dynamic for a reason -- it can change each day:
- If households in your community continue to respond to the 2020 Census in growing numbers, the metric will go down.
- If a dwindling number of households respond, the number may go up!
But you can track this each day for your tract (or group of tracts), county, & city to measure your GOTC progress.
For more detail on how we calculate the metric, see Section 4 at our response rate analysis report for Weeks 12 & 13 (June 5 through June 18).
As always, feedback is welcome!
Resources and reports analyzing response rates nationwide & locally
Several organizations recently published reports examining the latest self-response rate trends. Here are links to several of them:
Response Rate Analysis: May 22 through June 18
In collaboration with the Census Counts 2020 coalition and the Funders Census Initiative, we continue to examine response rate trends nationwide, especially in relation to communities with historically undercounted populations. Our latest analyses are summarized below:
- Analysis of Weeks 12 and 13 (June 5 through June 18). Highlighted topics:
- Substantial nationwide and statewide (and in Puerto Rico) response rate increases the weekend of June 12;
- Details about those increases in states & communities where Update/Leave operations resumed as of May 6;
- Notable increases also in New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago;
- Internet First vs Internet Choice: rates increasing for tracts that received bilingual mailing;
- Response rates across tracts by plurality race/Hispanic origin; and
- New online trendline visualization and new response rate metric to help support GOTC work during the extended self-response timeframe.
- Analysis of Weeks 10 and 11 (May 22 through June 4). Highlighted topics:
- NYC's response rate continues to outpace U.S. increases;
- The latest response rates in states where Update/Leave operations resumed as of May 6: modest increases;
- Closer look at communities already meeting their final 2010 response rates;
- Update on Internet First vs Internet Choice gap; and
- Update on response rates in plurality “historically undercounted population” census tracts.
Our next analysis will cover the three-week period of June 19 through July 9.
Links to earlier updates
Make sure to follow us on Twitter at @Census2020Map !
The HTC 2020 map is a work in progress. Other recent updates and enhancements are described here:
- May 27, 2020: Update/Leave operations have resumed in 42 states & Puerto Rico; rates are increasing slowly nationwide but bright spots highlight importance of census outreach to continue to boost response; tracts with lowest response rates are very different than tracts with highest rates.
- May 14, 2020: New map search feature for Area Census Offices (where the Update/Leave operation is resuming), our latest self-response rate analysis (Week7), & links to other projects analyzing self-response rates.
- May 6, 2020: News about where the Update/Leave operation is resuming, and our latest self-response rate analyses (Weeks 4, 5, & 6).
- April 13, 2020: Week 3 Response Rate Analysis; Trendlines Added to the Map.
- April 7, 2020: Week 2 Response Rate analysis; Tribal Lands added to the map.
- April 3, 2020: Census 2020 HTC map news: "Census Day" Self-Response Bump; Data Q&A.
- March 31, 2020: Week 1 Response Rate analysis.
- March 23, 2020: Update on mapping self-response rates, with emphasis on the 2020 progress bar that fills in daily after the latest rates are published, easy share/embed options for your map, and some notes on the data.
- March 19 2020: In a joint statement with our colleagues at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights (LCCHR), we highlighted the importance of a fair and accurate 2020 Census as the coronavirus challenges grow, and lifted up the resources available at our HTC 2020 map to help inspire Americans to fill out the 2020 Census form on their own. Self-responding helps ensure that the Census Bureau collects reliable data about the nation's population. And self-responding is a way to practice social distancing because it avoids a knock at your door later on from a census taker.
- March 2020: The HTC map is now focused on census self-response rates. All the former info at the map is still there. But now that census mailings are going out, the map has been updated to reflect 2010 response rates in anticipation of integrating 2020 real-time rates after March 20. NB: the map not only displays response rates for each state, county, and tract, but also include a bar chart in the map's left-hand panel that shows the 2010 rate (and 2000, for historical context) for now. The 2020 column in the bar chart is empty, but it will start to go up after March 20. How quickly and how far it rises depends on local census stakeholders!
- February 2020: New data on the risk of undercounting young children, in collaboration with the Population Reference Bureau. For more info, visit PRB's website.
- January 2020: To help promote the official start of the 2020 Census in Alaska, we added a special "It Starts Here" (in Toksook Bay, AK) graphic on the map. Updates in January also included new 2014-2018 population estimates for tracts, counties, states, legislative districts, and more.
- December 2019: New advanced tract search feature, statewide maps of Census Bureau contact strategies, and more.
- November 2019: Comprehensive information for all 2020 Census contact techniques combined in one place at the HTC 2020 map, so census stakeholders can more easily inform local residents about what to expect when the 2020 decennial census takes place. Also see the CUNY Center for Urban Research website for a state-by-state analysis.
- October 2019: Updates to TEA designations; the latest examples of groups using the HTC map across the country; enhancing the HTC metrics with the Census Bureau's "low response score", the Urban Institute's projections of undercount by state; & more.
- August 2019: In-Field Address Canvassing areas & stats on the map; organizations that are using the HTC map for local grant assistance; new examples of linking to and/or embedding the HTC map.
- July 2019: new feature to highlight tracts based on share of households without internet access; a list of other census maps nationwide, and more.
- June 2019: Census contacts by state/county; census tract search feature.
- April 2019: customized printing, data downloads, and more.
- March 2019: mapping Type of Enumeration Areas (TEA) and Area Census Offices (ACOs)
- January 2019: new ACS data for the 2013-17 period (including internet access), new legislative info, public library locations, and tribal lands added to the map.
If you haven't signed up for our HTC 2020 map updates, please do so here.
We look forward to hearing your suggestions for improving the map. Please contact the Mapping Service at the CUNY Graduate Center with your feedback.
Thanks!
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