Hay everyone!
Well we said we were never going into hay, however you’ve gotta make hay while the sun shines and there's been no shortage of sun.
Therefore we are in the game of hay broking now. If you are a buyer or seller of good quality hay in 25 tonne minimum lots let us know.
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More of the same for the cotton market. Cotton futures has traded in a relatively tight range between 57 and 60 cents for the past couple of weeks. For the market to go up or down significantly we need some strong fundamental news like a trade war agreement or some crop damage in the northern hemisphere.
For anyone who is likely to have cotton to sell for delivery in 2020 I think basis will be very strong and there could be opportunities to take advantage of shorts if conditions don’t improve between now and planting.
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COTTON ICE FUTURES
US 59.37c/lb (Dec 2019)
Range last 30 days
56.59 - 60.25
Current AUD/Bale price
2019 - $525
2020 - $540
2021 - $510
2022 - $500
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
AUD - Current 68.50
Range last 7 days
67.72 - 68.78
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If you are short cotton please let us know as we may be able to help.
If you have cotton to sell please talk to us as we may be able to link you up with a short.
For more information on this option please see www.rawcotton.com.au
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Harvest has started!
Chickpea harvest has started in Central Queensland with some promising looking paddocks. The bulk of the crops in CQ look like they will start in 2 to 3 weeks’ time but some of the early crops harvested are showing signs of good quality and yield. The frost seems to have been early enough to do minimal damage to the peas. If the quality and yields continue through harvest this could be a great thing for our market. While India remains out of our market through import permits, both Bangladesh and Pakistan have stepped up to become our major export partners. The change in countries for Australia has meant traders have had to attract new buyers in these countries as well as adjusting any internal trade risk they may have to consider with these buyers. For example, talking to several traders they have mentioned that there is a much bigger risk for traders who are shipping bulk chickpeas as a trade default on a bulk shipment can hurt more than a handful of containers.
New Crop 19/20 Delivered Downs September $725/mt /Graincorp NTP prices Gladstone and Mackay $670/ Del-Port Mackay and Gladstone Oct-19 to Jan-2020 $695
Old Crop Sept Fixed $630 Del-Wee Waa & Trangie, Del-Goondiwindi $630, Del-Narrabri $630, Del-Downs $660/mt.
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Denis Kiely standing in his crop of irrigated Macarena’s which are looking pretty good!
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A “seriously good” looking crop of irrigated Chickpeas East of Emerald on Foley’s road.
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Great looking crop of irrigated chickpeas on Neek Morwitz’s place near Comet.
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Ian G. “showing off” in front of Ian Burnett’s irrigated chickpeas just starting to turn, East of Emerald.
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CQ wheat looks good
The Central Queensland harvest has started well with the few paddocks that have been harvested looking good on quality and yield. Again the frost in CQ seems to have done minimal damage to the grain with many early paddocks below 1% screenings (but you can still see parts of the paddock effected). The protein is a little bit variable with ranges from 11% to 14% protein. The good start to harvest is great news for CQ growers as they try to take advantage of this drought market. Many growers in CQ are also cutting & baling some of the marginal crops instead of harvesting to sell hay at reasonable prices ( the hardest thing is finding a consistent buy).
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A dryland wheat crop north of Emerald not far off harvest time.
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Ian found a few heads with frost damage, but these were not everywhere.
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Most of this CQ wheat will be heading to the Condamine or Darling Downs but we are seeing some of the Millers still looking for APH to cover the next 12 months. The CQ ex-farm market is running hot and cold with bids varying up to $20/mt ($355 to $375) depending if the buyer has a home to take the wheat to, and also the further South the better the freight advantage.
Current Crop: Ex-F Sept+, Emerald SFW $370, Moree SFW $420, Goondiwindi SFW $417, Narromine SFW $395/mt
Delivered Downs SFW Sept+ $415/mt, Del Condamine $415, Del Hanwood SFW $375, Del Melbourne ASW1 $370.
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Cottonseed prices start to pick up
I went away on holidays for a few weeks and the cottonseed market exploded! The market is killing it’s own demand with very few offers (and the offer that are there are huge). This is something the cottonseed market is good at doing (killing demand) the biggest problem is that 90% of the available cottonseed stocks are now owned by traders draining supply so the market will go up and improve their trading margins. This increase in price may be negative for next seasons users as they search for viable and reliable feed sources to replace cottonseed.
If I was growing cottonseed next season, I would be starting to consider pricing seed for ginning as by the time we get to ginning time it may be hard to find a buyer who wants to keep it in their ration at these prices.
Prices Ex-Gin 18/19: MIA $580/mt, Macquarie Valley $600, Gwydir/Namoi Valley $630, Downs +$650.
Prices Ex-Gin 19/20: Downs $560, Gwydir $530, Macquarie $520, MIA $500.
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Hay prices will continue to drop for the next month or so by up to $100 per tonne. Sell now or otherwise be prepared to hold for a few months.
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Brisbane: 117.38
Melbourne: 117.66
Sydney: 117.89
Newcastle: 117.85
Fuel Prices have remained steady since our last report.
Allow about 4c to 6c for delivery depending on your proximity to the port.
To make sure you are ready to go when you want to order, please fill in the attached credit application. CREDIT APPLICATION.
Forward pricing options
If you are interested in locking in a forward price for delivery at a later date, please get in touch with us. We have been working hard to be able to bring a user-friendly hedging option to the market.
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The first person to correctly identify where Ian Grellman is in the photo to the right (by return email) will receive a free carton of beer from Newstead Brewing Company after their next business transaction with Rain Ag.
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In the last edition Tim was the at the Kronosaurus Korner sign out of Richmond QLD. And the winner was Tim Cassegrain - CONGRATULATIONS - two correct guesses in a row! Your carton of beer is on the way.
Learn more about Newstead Brewing Company by clicking on the can!
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CONTACT US:
Northern Region | Tim Whan | Grower Representative | 0448 444 015
National | Ian Grellman | Trade Commodities Specialist | 0448 333 959
Southern Region | Peter Horton | Grower Representative | 0448 777 358
Southern Region | Amy Billsborough | Grower Representative | 0406 872 323
Administration | Natasha Coffey | 0447 545 714 | natasha@rainag.com.au
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