Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Sept. 20-28

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com

A look ahead:

Sept. 19/ U.S. Labor Secretary confirmation hearing: Eugene Scalia will appear before a Senate panel Thursday after being nominated by President Donald Trump in August to serve as the United States' next secretary of labor.

• What's happened so far: Former Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta resigned in July amid fallout from his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case as a U.S. attorney more than a decade ago. In picking his successor, Trump nominated the son of late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who served as a top lawyer in the Labor Department during the George W. Bush administration.
• The impact: Scalia, who in the past represented large companies and will likely continue to push an anti-labor agenda, is all but certain to be confirmed. His hearing comes amid the first United Auto Workers strike in a decade. Democrats have criticized the pace of Scalia's confirmation, with ranking committee member Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., saying a rushed hearing would undermine the vetting process.

Sept. 20/ Area 51 "raid": Security is high in rural Nevada after a joke Facebook post urging people to storm a U.S. Air Force facility Friday morphed into plans for two music festivals. 

• What's happened so far: After more than a million people signed up on Facebook to attend an Area 51 raid, the event’s creator attempted to launch an "“Alienstock" music festival in the tiny town of Rachel, Nev. The festival was later canceled to avoid a “possible humanitarian disaster.” The festival website is urging people to go to a free concert in downtown Las Vegas instead, but the owner of a hotel in Rachel says the festival is still “full-steam ahead.” A second festival, called Area 51 Basecamp, is planned in nearby Hiko.
• The impact: Business owners and officials in Nevada’s rural Lincoln County are still preparing for thousands of people to show up. The U.S. Air Force is taking any threats of storming the facility seriously, with a spokesperson saying they are “ready to protect America and its assets.” Two men from the Netherlands have already been arrested for going inside an Area 51 restricted zone and the FAA has also posted temporary flight restrictions for two areas near the facility.

Sept. 20/ Possible protests in Egypt: Five years after assuming Egypt’s presidency, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is facing a rare threat of street protests Friday against his authority. 

• What's happened so far: Though opposition groups have failed previously to rally public support against el-Sisi’s regime, the relatively well-known Egyptian actor and construction contractor Mohamed Ali has led this effort, posting frequently about alleged corruption in the country’s military establishment. He has called for a nationwide peaceful protest that would last one hour on Friday, demanding the president’s resignation.
• The impact: While Ali has made a significant impact on social media, it’s unclear whether Egyptians will answer his call to take to the streets. Police have reportedly started preparing for potential demonstrations in Cairo and other major cities, and it’s possible the government could shut down internet and phone communications, as well as order a curfew.

Sept. 20/ Manhattan climate change protest: Demonstrators will take to the streets of Manhattan on Friday as part of a global climate strike just days before world leaders gather in the city to discuss “concrete, realistic plans” to address climate change at the U.N. Climate Summit. 

• What's happened so far: Though there’s been no word from organizers on the expected size of the Manhattan rally — one of more than 800 planned across the United States — the city’s 1.1 million public school students have been given permission to take part without penalties. Meanwhile, environmental groups have announced their intention to “Shut Down D.C.” on Monday, planning to disrupt traffic in the nation’s capital.
• The impact: At the summit, countries are expected to introduce their formal targets and commitments as part of the Paris Accord. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres is asking for goals that reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent over the next decade and net zero emissions by 2050.

Sept. 21/ Anti-Brexit protests in Edinburgh: On Saturday, pro-EU campaigners plan to march through the streets of Edinburgh, toward the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood, in opposition to the U.K. government’s Brexit policy.

• What's happened so far: The march is the second organized by Scottish pro-Remain group European Movement in as many months. Approximately 200 people gathered outside Holyrood on Aug. 29, chanting “stop the coup” — a reference to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend British Parliament and make it more difficult for lawmakers to pass legislation preventing a no-deal Brexit. 
• The impact: More than 60 percent of Scottish voters voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and many are also calling for a second Scottish independence referendum. It’s likely that calls for a so-called “IndyRef2” will form part of Saturday’s protest, particularly given that a number of pro-independence figures are scheduled to speak. A second pro-Scottish independence rally is planned for the same day, which could disrupt transit.

Sept. 24/ U.N. General Debate: The United Nations’ 74th General Assembly (UNGA) kicks off Tuesday for a weeklong summit in New York City. UNGA President Tijjani Muhammad-Band, of Nigeria, selected poverty eradication, education and climate action as discussion themes.

• What's happened so far: This year’s U.N. meeting takes place against the backdrop of a global climate crisis, international trade war and renewed conflicts between India and Pakistan, and the United States and Iran, among others. World leaders will address the summit over a schedule of five days — Trump is expected to speak Tuesday, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan’s Imran Khan are expected Friday. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani is also expected to address the gathering but has reportedly not yet been granted a U.S. visa to travel.
• The impact: Iran has ruled out a sidelines meeting between Rouhani and Trump, according to state-run outlet Fars. The comments come in the wake of an attack on two major oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia has claimed was perpetrated by Iran. During the summit, New York City is shutting down many major streets, limiting ferry service and closing some bike routes around the United Nations compound.

What else matters:

Attacks on Saudi oil assets: Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, lost about half of its production capacity when drone and missile strikes (members’ link) significantly damaged the biggest processing facility of state-owned Aramco. The attacks, which are still being analyzed by Saudi and U.S. officials to determine their exact source, sent oil prices up by as much as 20 percent and prompted Trump to authorize the release of supplies from the U.S. strategic reserves if necessary to stabilize oil markets. 

• Watch for: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to blame Iran for the attacks, despite the Houthis of Yemen claiming responsibility. Saudi Arabia said Wednesday the attacks came from the “north” and were sponsored by Iran, but stopped short of saying the missiles were launched from Iranian territory. Trump said the United States is “locked and loaded,” and chances of armed conflict have escalated.

Forest fires in Indonesia: Forest fires burning across Sumatra and Borneo in Indonesia are sending choking smog across Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. Deliberate burning to clear land is an annual issue in the archipelago, but it has been particularly bad this year due to dry conditions. There are approximately 1,000 hotspots in Indonesia alone. Air quality is so poor in some areas that residents have fled their homes and hundreds of schools have closed in Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia. Nearly 150,000 people have been treated for respiratory conditions and more than 100 flights have been canceled.

• Watch for: Environmental groups have accused the Indonesian government of failing to address the growing environmental disaster. Indonesian President Joko Widodo said 6,000 troops have been deployed to tackle the blazes and cloud seeding and water bombing efforts are also underway. The fires have also sparked diplomatic tensions – Indonesia has accused Malaysia of not being transparent about the extent their fires have contributed to the smog. In Borneo pollution is at "hazardous” levels. In nearby Singapore, air quality has hit unhealthy levels for the first time in three years.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Sept. 19: Climate forum with 2020 presidential candidates; U.S. Labor Secretary confirmation hearing; Supreme Court Brexit verdict expected

Sept. 20: NYC Climate Strike; Australian Prime Minister visits U.S.; Germany climate protection measures announced; Area 51 "raid"; possible protests in Egypt

Sept. 21: Brexit protest in Edinburgh; Polk County, Iowa, Steak Fry

Sept. 22: 71st Primetime Emmy Awards

Sept. 23: U.N. climate summit; climate change protest in Washington, D.C.; Spain government negotiation deadline; Cameroon to hold national dialogue with separatists to end Anglophone crisis

Sept. 24: U.N. General Assembly debate begins

Sept. 25: Michael Flynn called to testify before U.S. House committee

Sept. 27: Saudi Arabia to grant tourist visas for first time

Sept. 28: Afghanistan presidential election

Sept. 29: Austrian legislative elections

Oct. 1: China tariffs scheduled to rise

Oct. 2: Netanyahu pre-indictment trial due to begin

Oct. 4: Trump rally in Rochester, Minnesota

Oct. 6: Legislative elections in Portugal

Our members can subscribe to our full editorial calendar. Please email us at members@factal.com for access.

Thanks for reading! If this was forwarded to you, you can sign up for free.

What's Factal? Created by the founders of Breaking News, Factal alerts companies to global incidents that pose an immediate risk to their people or business operations. We provide trusted verification, precise incident mapping and a collaboration platform for corporate security, travel safety and emergency management teams.

If you're a company interested in a trial, please email sales@factal.com. To learn more, visit Factal.com, browse the Factal blog or email us at hello@factal.com.

Facts Save Lives