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In this week's newsletter, one new article, a new chart of the week, recent articles, and 10 top EV articles from around the world ...
Will 2021 Be The Breakout Year for EVs in the US?
Electric vehicle sales in the US are basically flat, but are poised to regain strong year-over-year growth in the next few years. The key questions are: When?, and Which EVs will be the top sellers?
In my latest article I have an updated forecast for EV sales through 2023 and project which EV models will be the top sellers for 2021 through 2023. No surprise, I expect the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 to lead the way, but have very high hopes and expectations for the VW I.D. 4 and Ford "Mach E" and Escape PHEV.
Recent EVAdoption Articles
Chart of the Week - EV Sales Share: Jan-June 2019 By ZEV and LEV States
This week both Minnesota and New Mexico announced they would be adopting the low emission standards set by the state of California, and known as the "ZEV mandate". According to Reuters, Minnesota and New Mexico would become the 11th and 12th states to adopt California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate and the 14th and 15th states to adopt its tailpipe standards known as LEV (low-emission vehicle). Colorado said in August it would adopt the ZEV mandate. (ZEV and LEV definitions)
With this in mind I wanted to look at EV sales market share by state comparing ZEV versus non ZEV states (chart below). In the chart you can see the existing ZEV states in the green bars, LEV states in purple and those that don't participate in either standard in blue.
While many of the states with the highest EV sales share during the period of Jan-June 2019 are either ZEV or LEV states, not all are. And in fact, earlier this past summer I conducted a regression analysis on 29 different variables - including ZEV/LEV states - and this variable did not have a significant correlation with EV sales by state. Many of the ZEV states also have very high gas prices, higher incomes, higher solar installations, greener grids, higher EV model availability, and a culture of being eco-conscious. But because many automakers only make their EVs available in ZEV states (or a subset of EV states), the fact that a state follows the ZEV standard has an indirect correlation with higher EV sales.
The EV 10: Recent News and Articles of Interest
- How electric vehicles will transform the grid, part 1 - Freeing Energy, September 16
- How electric vehicles will drive over the electric monopolies, part 2 - Freeing Energy, September 22
- Batteries: Take-aways from the first day of Detroit’s Battery Show - Roskill, September 17
- VW, BMW, JLR differ on best choice for EV architecture efficiency - AutoNews Europe, September 16
- Explainer: Why Asia's biggest economies are backing hydrogen fuel cell cars - Reuters, September 18
- If the world ran on sun, it wouldn’t fight over oil - The Guardian (Bill McKibben). September 18
- VW's US electric-car pricing: “Apples to apples” vs. internal combustion - GreenCarReports, September 18
- Ford Says 42 Percent Of Americans Believe EVs Require Gas To Run - InsideEVs, September 19
- Amazon Orders Fleet of 100,000 Electric Delivery Vans From Rivian - TheDrive, September 19
- Californians are buying up electric cars. But where will they plug in? - San Francisco Chronicle, September 18
Have a question, idea for some research that hasn't been covered, or just want to provide some feedback on the newsletter or site content (positive AND negative is welcome), please send me an email. Don't forget to share articles on your favorite social networks - and please follow me on Twitter at @EVAdoptionTweet and the EVAdoption Facebook page.
Plugs not pumps!
Loren McDonald
EVAdoption
EV Analyst/Writer/Speaker
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