Highlights
Monitored: During September, northern and central parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season; and southern islands received normal rainfall. The Southern Islands have an excess of 650 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern and Central Islands experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm.
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on October 7th. On the 8th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 9th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the entire country next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In October, the northern half of the country usually receives up to 200 mm rain while the southern half receives up to 250 mm rain. Wind is westerly. The entire country usually receives up to 200 mm rain in November with no change in the wind direction from October. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Southern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind.
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| 19th September |
Up to 50 mm in the southern islands. |
| 20th – 21st September |
Up to 50 mm in the northern and central islands; and up to 30 mm in the southern islands. |
| 22nd September |
Up to 50 mm in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. |
| 23rd September |
Up to 50 mm in the central islands; and up to 30 mm in northern and southern islands. |
| 24th September |
Up to 100 mm in the central; up to 50 mm in northern; and up to 20 mm southern islands |
| 25th September |
Up to 50 mm in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands |
| 26th September |
Up to 10 mm in the southern islands. |
| 27th September |
.Up to 20 mm in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. |
| 28th September |
Up to 30 mm in the southern islands; up to 10 mm in the central islands. |
| 29th September |
Up to 20 mm in the northern and central islands. |
| 30th September |
Up to 50 mm in the northern and up to 30 mm in central islands. |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In September, Central islands received up to 200 mm rainfall above than normal rainfall for the season; and northern islands up to 100 mm. The southern islands received average rainfall for the season. The central and southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall; and central and northern islands up to 300 mm.
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Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: To IMD GFS rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country on October 7 th. On the 8 th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 9 th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 10 th, rainfall up to 70 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands and up to 40 mm in the northern islands.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - September 19, 2019)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September. Patterns in the key atmospheric variables are also showing ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and into spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
1 0C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO was significant in Phase 8 from Sep 15-20; and in Phase 1 from Sep 21-30. Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
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Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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