NOTOS NEWS | MARITIME INDICES SEPTEMBER 2019

Despite increasing concerns about the world economy, shipping stocks were able to gain further ground in September.

CRUDE TANKERS MOVE AHEAD
The latest decision of the US administration to put four Cosco-subsidiaries on the sanctions list caused a sudden disruption in the VLCC markets. It seems that more than 20 VLCCs are currently out of the market. This led to a sharp increase in charter rates and a strong upward move in crude tanker stocks.

The Notos tanker index gained 4.9% in September and we assume that it will continue its strong trend into October.

BULKER SECTOR RETREATS
After a very strong summer, bulker charter rates fell back in September and so did the Notos bulker index. The overall sentiment for bulkers has decreased significantly (see next page) and we are therefore a bit pessimistic for the last quarter of this year.

VERY STRONG LPG MARKETS
The Notos gas index gained more than 8% and this was mainly driven by the LPG subsector. Whereas traditionally VLGC charter rates drop in the winter season, the market this year is driven by a wide Asia-US arbitrage window and a shortage of vessels due to scrubber retrofits. We would not be surprised if this market should stay strong for another twelve months.

BULKER SENTIMENT FALLS BELOW ZERO
While the ‘Notos Maritime Sentiment Index’ shed another few points (but stayed in positive territory), the bulker sentiment dropped considerably and even entered negative territory, indicating further softness in bulker stock markets. We are currently underweight in this sector.

NOTOS’ TRADING STRATEGIES REACH NEW HIGHS
The Dow Jones Global Shipping Index gained 4.7% in September. Our trading strategies ‘Calima’ and ‘Notos Maritime Strategy Index’ were able outperform their benchmark by 2.1 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points, respectively.

Even our passive strategy ‘Base Portfolio 2019’, which we do not change over the course of the year, was able to outperform its benchmark by 23.4 percentage points y-o-y.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you wish to learn more about our trading strategies.

GLOSSARY
NOTOS SHIPPING INDICES | Measure the average performance of listed shipping companies in each sector
NOTOS MARITIME SENTIMENT INDEX | Measures the sentiment of global shipping markets, ranks between -1 and +1
CALIMA | Closed-end maritime investment fund (AIF)
NOTOS MARITIME STRATEGY INDEX TRACKER NOTE | Based on a factor-trading-strategy on shipping sectors
BASE PORTFOLIO 2019 | Portfolio consisting of one selected ‘Quality Stock’ for each sector

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