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The hottest EV topics in recent days have been Dyson's announcement that it will end plans to produce an electric vehicle and the power shut downs by PG&E in California and its impact on EVs. The biggest and most important news of the week and recent months is that Toyota will bring a PHEV version of the RAV4 to the US, likely late in 2020. See my commentary below on these three news stories, plus my latest blog post on a massive flaw in the US gas guzzler tax, 2 new "charts of the week," links to recent articles, and 7 top EV articles from around the world ...
Dyson to End EV Plans
In announcing that Dyson would end its EV production plans, the company also said it would focus on the manufacturing of solid state batteries. In the end this is perhaps not a huge surprise, but also a wiser choice for the company. While may EV advocates like to chastise the legacy automakers for their slowness in producing EVs, Dyson and struggles at Nio and many other EV startups shows how difficult it is to succeed in the auto industry. I expect a few companies, perhaps Tesla and Rivian, to survive, but most other EV startup companies will eventually just be footnotes in the history of EVs.
We will also concentrate on the formidable task of manufacturing solid state batteries and other fundamental technologies which we have identified: sensing technologies, vision systems, robotics, machine learning, and AI offer us significant opportunities which we must grab with both hands. Our battery will benefit Dyson in a profound way and take us in exciting new directions.
PG&E Power Shut Downs: Implications and Opportunities for Electric Vehicles
If you live in Northern California you could not escape either the potential or reality of having your power shut off by the utility PG&E, or the constant news coverage. EVAdoption was referenced in this Washington Post article, California’s power outage means problems for electric cars. Tesla says charge up, quick and I subsequently was interviewed on the San Francisco news radio station KCBS on how the shut down is affecting EV owners. This obviously got me thinking about the impact of power outages on EVs, charging and the market. I will share my thoughts on the challenges and opportunities resulting from these planned power outages in a future article, but a couple of quick thoughts:
- It points to why long range battery packs of 400+ miles will be preferred by many American car buyers so that they can sleep at night knowing that in power outages they will still have several days worth of range available.
- These incidents will also be another reason why many consumers will be more comfortable with a PHEV versus BEV (though, of course gas stations cannot pump gas if the electricity is off).
- Hopefully these outages will encourage automakers to add vehicle-to-home functionality into their EVs in the coming years so that EVs can power homes during these temporary shut downs.
- I expect to see increased demand in solar + battery storage as consumers and businesses alike realize they need to become less dependent upon the grid.
- Large battery pack systems like Tesla’s Powerpacks could see growth in demand to ensure adequate power supply for DCFS locations.
2021 Toyota RAV4 PHEV Coming to the US (In Late 2020?)
At the upcoming Los Angeles Auto Show, Toyota will release details on a PHEV version of its popular RAV4 SUV. The regular hybrid version accounts for 19% (62,881 units) of RAV4 (324,622) sales YTD in 2019, and the model overall will end 2019 as the #4 selling vehicle in the US. If Toyota prices the RAV4 PHEV correctly and it has ~30 miles of range, it should be a huge selling EV in the US in 2021.
With a PHEV version of the Ford Escape coming to market in the spring of 2020, these two top-selling SUVs could in essence become the "new hybrids" and bring plugs to a huge market that might have otherwise planned to buy a regular hybrid. While sites like Electrek are bashing Toyota in the news - Toyota does electrification backward, unveils RAV4 PHEV when it used to have all-electric version - I believe a PHEV RAV4 could be a huge catalyst to EV sales, and help to make PHEVs "the new hybrids."
Trucks, SUVs and Minivans Inclusion in the Gas Guzzler Tax Is 20 Years Overdue
Did you know that trucks, vans, SUVs and crossovers are not subject to the gas guzzler tax in the US? According to the EPA site:
The Gas Guzzler Tax is assessed on new cars that do not meet required fuel economy levels. These taxes apply only to passenger cars. Trucks, minivans, and sport utility vehicles (SUV) are not covered because these vehicle types were not widely available in 1978 and were rarely used for non-commercial purposes.
The US Gas Guzzler Tax is deeply flawed, as it does not tax SUVs, minivans or pickups and its MPG threshold of 22.5 has not increased since 1991. In the latest EVAdoption article I outline 5 suggestions on how to fix or improve the Gas Guzzler Tax.
Recent EVAdoption Articles
Charts of the Week (1) - US EV Charging Connections/Locations
The latest EV charging numbers from the Alternative Data Fuels Data Center (AFDC) reveal that DCFC connections now comprise 18 percent of the total number of public charging connections in the US. By the end of 2019, there should be close to 70,000 charging connections at 25,000 locations.
There are currently 2.7 connections per Level 2 location, but 3.9 connections per DCFC location. As networks including EVgo, Electrify America, and Tesla Super Charger continue their rapid expansion, look for the average number of connections per location to average 5 by the end of 2020.
Charts of the Week (2) - US EV YOY Sales Estimates: Jan-Dec 2019
I'm currently estimating US EV sales will decline roughly 5% in 2019 versus 2018. The decline could be worse if sales of the Tesla Model 3 are not super strong. If Model 3 sales are huge, US sales will likely end up about flat versus 2018. In January I estimated EV sales would increase 12% but several factors have led to a potential decline in sales.
Sales of the Kia Niro and Hyundai Kona BEVs should have sold in the 1,000-1,500 per month range, but both automakers have limited sales to ZEV states and simply didn't produce very many units for the US market. Similarly, the hot-selling Honda Clarity PHEV, which was poised to potentially be the #3-selling EV in the US, has seen a significant decline due to Honda limiting sales just to California.
The EV 7: Recent News and Articles of Interest
- California’s power outage means problems for electric cars. Tesla says charge up, quick. - Washington Post, October 9
- The Most Detailed Map of Auto Emissions in America - New York Times, October 9
- Report: States Are Fostering EV Adoption and Infrastructure But Approaches Vary - GreenCarReports, September 17
- Royal Dutch Shell searches for a purpose beyond oil - Financial Times, September, 26 (paywall)
- Billions at risk as Britain moves away from fuel-burning cars - Telegraph, October 4 -
- Plug-in hybrids give automakers an emissions compliance lifeline - Auto News Europe, October 7
- Most electric car chargers don’t take credit cards. California wants to fix that - San Francisco, October 7
Have a question, idea for some research that hasn't been covered, or just want to provide some feedback on the newsletter or site content (positive AND negative is welcome), please send me an email. Don't forget to share articles on your favorite social networks - and please follow me on Twitter at @EVAdoptionTweet and the EVAdoption Facebook page.
Plugs not pumps!
Loren McDonald
EVAdoption
EV Analyst/Writer/Speaker
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