Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Oct. 11-18

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

Oct. 10/ Snowstorm in U.S. Northern Plains: Parts of the United States could see a major snowstorm Thursday with several inches forecast to fall on the Northern Rockies and High Plains.

• What's happened so far: The National Weather Service has issued several winter storm watches and warnings for the area. A jet stream moving across the Pacific Northwest this week drove cold air eastward, which should couple with moisture from as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters have warned some parts of Montana could see as much as 24 inches of snow over the course of the week, just days after a record-breaking storm brought several feet.
• The impact: The Denver metro area is forecast to receive snow Thursday, just one day after hitting a high in the 80s. Widespread snow could also leave many people in the Rockies and High Plains in the dark. A similar weather system hit North Dakota last year, causing widespread power outages.

Oct. 10/ U.S.-China trade talks resume: China’s Vice Premier Liu He will head to Washington on Thursday to lead his country’s delegation in the latest round of negotiations aimed at ending a trade dispute that has roiled markets and sparked fears of a global recession.

• What's happened so far: The talks are taking place against an increasingly grim backdrop, with China tamping down expectations and after the United States announced visa restrictions on Chinese officials over violence against the country’s minority Uighur-Muslim population. The move followed new restrictions on the sale of U.S. technology to Chinese security entities.
• The impact: Both countries are already feeling the impact of tariffs that have been imposed for more than a year. In addition to increased volatility in financial markets, the dispute continues to threaten the global economy, with the International Monetary Fund warning the cost could reach $700 billion by next year.

Oct. 13/ Tunisian presidential run-off: Kais Saied, a relatively unknown college professor, will face millionaire Nabil Karoui in a runoff Sunday, days after Karoui was released from prison to compete in the early election following the death of President Beji Essibsi in July.

• What's happened so far: Saied, who teaches law at Université de Tunis, and Karoui, who owns the nation’s biggest media company, led 24 candidates in the first round of voting last month, forcing the runoff. The race has been controversial with Karoui jailed since August on tax-evasion and money-laundering charges. Tunisia’s highest court ordered his release Wednesday, allowing him to campaign for the first time.
• The impact: Tunisia, the birthplace of the 2011 Arab Spring, has made significant progress toward democracy, having held multiple free presidential and parliamentary elections. Should the country’s next vote successfully put to rest concerns about its legitimacy, the winner will have a multitude of challenges to tackle, including unemployment, economic growth and human rights.

Oct. 13/ Super Typhoon Hagibis: Millions of people in Japan are bracing for the impact of Super Typhoon Hagibis, which is forecast to make landfall by Sunday.

• What's happened so far: The storm re-intensified this week in a serious way, increasing its wind speed by 100 mph in 24 hours — one of the fastest intensifications ever recorded. It has since started to weaken and turn north toward Japan, where weather officials are warning people to take precautions. Hagibis is the fourth storm to reach Category 5 this year, after last year saw a total of 11.
• The impact: Because of Hagibis' large size, millions of people in Japan could be affected by its rains and wind over the course of the weekend. This is especially problematic for people living in Japan’s Chiba Prefecture, which suffered large-scale blackouts during Typhoon Faxai. Several events in Japan could also be affected, including the Rugby World Cup.

Oct. 13/ FATF plenary meetings: The global anti-money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force will hold five days of meetings in Paris, beginning Sunday, to decide whether Pakistan should join Iran and North Korea on its blacklist.

• What's happened so far: Pakistan was first placed on the FATF’s grey list in June 2018 due to the country’s “counter-terrorist financing-related deficiencies” in its regulatory environment. The country was given 15 months to adhere to all 40 of the FATF’s recommendations, but so far, it has complied fully with just one, according to a report published earlier this month.
• The impact: Placement on the blacklist virtually ensures that Pakistan would be subject to international sanctions, which the country can ill afford given that it is already grappling with IMF-imposed austerity measures and a national debt crisis. It could also lead to a further breakdown in relations with India, as Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan claims Narendra Modi’s government has lobbied heavily in favor of blacklisting in order to damage Pakistan’s economy.

Oct. 14/ Boris Johnson's Queen's speech: U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will present his government's legislative priorities to parliament in the Queen's speech Monday, after months of deadlock over Brexit.

• What's happened so far: The longest sitting parliament in U.K. history was suspended Wednesday ahead of Johnson's presentation. The prime minister's plan for Britain is expected to include reforms to the National Health Service and policing, but they are being drowned out by persistent, intensifying uncertainty over Brexit. European Union and U.K. officials are still negotiating a deal, which is expected to materialize — or not — by Oct. 19. 
• The impact: Traditionally, the Queen's speech marks the beginning of a new parliament and sets the new government's priorities. There will also be a special Saturday sitting of parliament on Oct. 19 to urgently discuss how to resolve Brexit. The current deadline for leaving the EU is Oct. 31, but recent U.K. legislation has put restrictions on leaving in the event that no deal is reached.

Oct. 15/ Mozambique election: Voters in Mozambique will go to the polls Tuesday for elections that analysts warn will be neither free nor fair.

• What's happened so far: Hopes were high after the government and long-running opposition and rebel group Renamo signed a historic peace deal in August. Ongoing political violence and instability, however, means the elections are on track to be the most violent in the country’s history. An election official was shot dead in the Gaza Province, a stronghold of the ruling Frelimo party, on Monday. Election observers said a total of 38 people have been killed, more injured and dozens arrested since campaigning began.
• The impact: Commentators argue that if Renamo emerges from the election feeling cheated by the political process, they could revert to violence. A breakaway faction of the group warned their attacks will continue as long as campaigning continues.

Oct. 15/ Democratic presidential debate: A record-high 12 candidates will participate in the fourth U.S. Democratic presidential debate Tuesday, hosted by CNN and the New York Times on the Otterbein University campus near Columbus, Ohio.

• What's happened so far: After failing to qualify for the last debate, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and billionaire Tom Steyer hit the polling and fundraising thresholds to participate in the one-night event. Meanwhile, the age and health of the frontrunners has suddenly taken centerstage, with Sen. Bernie Sanders off the campaign trail after suffering a heart attack.
• The impact: With higher qualifying figures in place for the November debate, this may be the final chance for several candidates on the periphery of the race to make an impression on voters. Several candidates may still drop out of the running before the next debate— Sen. Cory Booker has threatened to quit due to insufficient funds, as has former housing secretary Julian Castro.

What else matters:

Turkey incursion into Syria: A new front in Syria’s eight-year-old civil war opened this week with Turkey launching an offensive on the northeastern part of the country following the sudden withdrawal of US forces from the area. Turkish fighter jets carried out strikes in at least two border towns in an attempt to wrestle away control from Syrian Democratic Forces, a militia made up of Kurds, Arabs, and other ethnic groups that has governed the area for about four years, fighting alongside the United States to defeat ISIS.

• Watch for: The new offensive risks turning an already dire humanitarian situation in northeast Syria into a “disastrous” one, the Human Rights Watch said. The group has also accused SDF of abuses in its management of prison camps housing thousands of suspected ISIS fighters. Turkey’s incursion may also increase the involvement of other parties in the fighting, including Saudi Arabia, Syrian government forces, and Russia.

Protest escalation in Hong Kong: After months of protests — originally stemming from a proposed extradition bill — tensions have steadily risen in Hong Kong, culminating in violent clashes between demonstrators and police in recent weeks. This past weekend, protesters defied an emergency mask ban, vandalizing businesses and damaging transit stations, causing an unprecedented rail system shutdown. Since June, nearly 2,500 people have been arrested, more than 200 of whom were charged with rioting.

• Watch for: Chief Executive Carrie Lam warned Tuesday that the Chinese military could be called upon if conditions continue to worsen, while critics have expressed concern that the mask ban could be a harbinger of "more draconian moves" on the part of the government. With no end to the demonstrations in sight, the government is reportedly averse to labeling the latest round of violence as "terrorism," over concerns the terminology would further inflame the situation.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Oct. 10: Canada election debate (French); U.S.-China trade talks set to resume; Trump rally in Minneapolis; snowstorm targets U.S. Northern Plains

Oct. 11: Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine  Marie Yovanovitch meets with House Intel panel; Nobel Peace Prize announcement

Oct. 12: 2019 World Beach Games begin in Qatar

Oct. 13: Pakistan’s Imran Khan in Paris; Polish parliamentary elections; Tunisian presidential run-off; FATF blacklist meetings begin; Super Typhoon Hagibis forecast to hit Japan

Oct. 14: U.S. Columbus Day; Britain’s Queen’s speech

Oct. 15: Mozambique elections; fourth Democratic debate; St. Louis Blues to celebrate their NHL title at the White House

Oct. 16: Democrats subpoena U.S. Ambassador Gordon Sondland to testify

Oct. 17: Trump rally in Dallas; EU Summit; Great ShakeOut earthquake drills held worldwide

Oct. 19: G20 Health Ministers Meeting begins; Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s inauguration

Oct. 20: Switzerland federal election; Bolivian general election

Oct. 21: Canada federal election day

Oct. 23: Botswana general election; Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies at U.S. House

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