Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Oct. 18-25

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

Oct. 19/ British parliament special session: Britain’s Parliament has been called to an extraordinary session on Saturday to discuss Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new Brexit deal.

• What's happened so far: British and European Union leaders said this morning a Brexit deal has been reached as they gather for a summit in Brussels.The U.K. government's key partner in Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party, said it cannot support the deal's provisions on consent, customs and value-added tax. Despite agreement with the EU, the government will ask for lawmakers to agree to the terms of the deal during Saturday’s special sitting. Parliament has so far refused to consent to a deal on three previous occasions under former PM Theresa May. 
• The impact: If an agreement cannot be reached on Saturday, the government will be forced to ask the EU for a Brexit deadline extension, and lawmakers will have to find a new way forward. A general election remains possible.

Oct. 20/ Indonesian president inauguration: Indonesian president Joko Widodo will be sworn in for a second term Sunday amid a series of crises, including massive wildfires, student demonstrations, resurgent Islamist militancy and unrest in Papua.

• What's happened so far: Thousands of students took to the streets in early October over a series of anti-democratic bills proposed by lawmakers. At least two students were killed and a number of bills have been postponed. Analysts say lawmakers, backed by powerful elites, are now making moves to curb Widodo’s power and the powers of popularly elected presidents.
• The impact: On Friday, Widodo ordered tightened security for state officials after a senior security minister was stabbed by an Islamic State sympathizer. More than 30,000 police and military troops will be deployed in Jakarta for Sunday’s inauguration and police have denied protest permits from Oct. 15-20. 

Oct. 20/ Bolivian presidential election: Voters in Bolivia will head to the polls Sunday to decide whether they want to extend President Evo Morales’s 14 years in office. Morales is leading in opinion polls over his most prominent opponent, former president Carlos Mesa.

• What's happened so far: Morales, the nation’s first indigenous president, is a socialist who has led one of the strongest periods of economic growth in the nation’s history. But the 60-year-old has also faced criticism over his efforts to remain in power after voters rejected his proposal to abolish term limits. This month, tens of thousands of demonstrators protested the lack of a strong response from his government to wildfires that have destroyed large parts of the nation’s forests.
• The impact: As Mesa promotes a more liberal, business-friendly platform, the election could serve as an indication of voter support for socialist versus pro-market policies across the continent. The election comes on the heels of violent protests in Ecuador (members’ link) that saw the government there reverse course on lifting fuel subsidies, while Venezuela continues to grapple with an economic crisis that has shaken President Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power (members' link).

Oct. 20/  World Internet Conference: The fifth annual World Internet Conference gets under way on Sunday in Wuzhen, China. 

• What's happened so far: The conference, which is organized by Chinese government agencies, has been running since 2014. Some big names have spoken there, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai from Google. It’s also garnered criticism for not allowing entry to reporters from certain media outlets, including The New York Times. Earlier this month, Russia’s state communications watchdog said it would attend the conference and sign a cooperation treaty with China aimed at “combating illegal content” on the Internet.
• The impact: The pact between Russia and China shows how both countries are trying to crack down on what its citizens can see online. This conference also comes at a time when there’s a spotlight on China and its relationship with Hong Kong, which has also threatened to curb internet access amid protests.

Oct. 21/ Canadian federal election day: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his ruling Liberal Party hope to maintain their majority in parliament while fending off challenges from the Conservatives and social-democratic NDP as voters head to the polls Monday.

• What's happened so far: Just days after the start of the campaign, the race was jolted by the revelation that Trudeau donned blackface on at least three instances, the latest of which came in 2001. Since then, the polls have shown a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives, while late gains by the NDP and Bloc Québécois have increased the likelihood of a minority government. Early voters have already set a new record, casting nearly 5 million ballots during the long weekend before the election.
• The impact: Trudeau has suggested he needs a strong government to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump and forces of populism around the world, while Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said his party is the only thing standing between massive budget deficits.

Oct. 22/ South Korean PM visits Japan: Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon will represent South Korea at the enthronement ceremony of Japanese Emperor Naruhito on Tuesday. He could also meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his visit, amid strained bilateral relations. 

• What's happened so far: Lee's visit comes just days after senior foreign ministry officials from both countries met in Seoul. Tensions have steadily risen between the two nations since a South Korean Supreme Court decision late last year ordered two Japanese companies to compensate South Korean workers for forced wartime labor. Since then, Japan dropped South Korea from its list of favored trading partners, while South Korea responded in kind and terminated an intelligence-sharing agreement between the countries. 
• The impact: Some have expressed hope that Lee's visit — the highest-level trip made by a South Korean official since the trade spat — will help improve relations, which are now thought to be at their lowest point in decades.

Oct. 23/ Mark Zuckerberg congressional testimony: On Wednesday, Facebook’s founder and CEO will return to Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, to speak before the House Financial Services Committee about his company’s planned cryptocurrency.

• What's happened so far: In June, Facebook announced it would launch its own cryptocurrency for its users with several companies on board including eBay, Visa, Mastercard and PayPal. Since then, all four of those companies have dropped out after regulators asked about the ”stability and privacy implications” of Libra. France and Germany have both said it should be banned in the EU.
• The impact: Zuckerberg’s testimony could alleviate concerns or raise even more red flags about the company’s plan to launch Libra next year. The testimony could also factor into the antitrust investigations that Facebook is facing, and whether more regulations will be coming for the technology company. The televised hearing could also move Facebook’s stock prices, affecting a number of companies on Wall Street.

Oct. 23/ Botswana elections: Sunday’s election represents the greatest challenge yet to the monopoly held by Botswana’s ruling party, the Botswana Democratic Party, which has been in power since the country gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. 

• What's happened so far: Botswana’s political environment was rocked in May when former president Ian Khama defected from the BDP, a party which his father founded, after clashing with his successor, current president Mokgweetsi Masisi. At a rally earlier this week, Khama called Masisi “autocratic and intolerant” and urged voters to choose any other party except the BDP in a bid to ensure Masisi does not win a second term.
• The impact: The BDP’s authority has been waning for some time and Khama’s defection has reduced it further still. If the former president’s new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front, wins a handful of seats, it will force several parties to work together in an unprecedented coalition. It’s unlikely, however, that the BDP will relinquish its grip on power readily, which could engender political conflict in a nation historically viewed as the exemplar of African democracy. 

What else matters:

Syrian conflict escalation: This week, Syrian government forces entered the war taking place in the northeastern region of the country following the invasion of the Turkish military (members’ link) to create a buffer zone and location where hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees could be settled. Russia, which has a significant military presence in Syria, has vowed to keep President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Turkish forces from fighting directly against each other.

• Watch for: As battles rage following the sudden withdrawal of a small contingent of U.S. forces in northeastern Syria, hundreds of thousands of civilians in what used to be a relatively peaceful corner of the country are getting caught up in the conflict. Non-partisan organizations such as the United Nations and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have already reported alleged atrocities being committed by both sides, in addition to concerns about malnutrition and disease amid disruptions in transportation, water and electricity. Despite the threat of U.S. and European sanctions, Turkey has shown no signs of letting up.

Catalan protests: Spain’s Supreme Court handed down lengthy prison sentences to prominent Catalonian politicians this week, sparking an angry backlash from the separatist movement. Following the ruling, protests erupted in Barcelona and across the region of Catalonia with independence supporters closing down streets and occupying Barcelona’s El Prat Airport. Catalonian lawmakers declared independence from Spain in 2017 following a referendum that Spain’s government deemed unconstitutional. The government of the region was subsequently dismissed by Spain’s prime minister.

• Watch for: Protests — mainly centered in Barcelona — continued for the third straight night Wednesday, as injury tolls near 200. Spain, meanwhile, is now seeking the arrest of Catalonia’s former leader Carles Puigdemont, who believed to be in Brussels. Previously, prosecutors in Belgium denied extradition requests. It’s likely protests will intensify if he is handed over to face trial on charges that may include rebellion and sedition.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Oct. 17: Trump rally in Dallas; EU Summit; Great ShakeOut earthquake drills held worldwide; pro-Trump rally in U.S. Capitol; Beto O'Rourke rally to counter Trump's visit to Dallas

Oct. 18: FATF to make final decision on blacklisting Pakistan; Air India flight operations may be disrupted due to oil supplies

Oct. 19: G20 Health Ministers Meeting begins

Oct. 20: Switzerland federal election; Bolivian general election;  Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s inauguration; World internet conference

Oct. 21: Canada federal election day; first all-women spacewalk at International Space Station

Oct. 22: South Korea PM visits Japan; NBA season begin

Oct. 23: Botswana general election; Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies at U.S. House; Trump set to visit Pittsburgh

Oct. 25: Deadline to exhume remains of Spain’s late dictator Francisco Franco

Oct. 26: NYC Basic Income March

Oct. 27: Diwali 

Oct. 30: Grenfell Tower Inquiry's first report due

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