Machines and workers: How different technologies affect different workers

Sotiris Blanas, Gino Gancia, Tim Lee, 10 October 2019

Since the early 1980s, technology has reduced the demand for low and medium-skill workers, the young, and women, especially in manufacturing industries. The column investigates which technologies have had the largest effect, and on which types of worker. It finds that robots and software raised the demand for high-skill workers, older workers, and men, especially in service industries. 

Figure 1 Employment shares by gender/occupation
Source: IPUMS census.

Strong economy, strong currency

Ric Colacito, Steven Riddiough, Lucio Sarno, 10 October 2019

While it is common to read in the press about linkages between the economic performance of a country and the evolution of its currency, the scientific literature suggests that exchange rates are disconnected from the state of the economy, and that macro variables that characterise the business cycle cannot explain asset prices. This column shares evidence of a robust link between currency returns and the relative strength of the business cycle in the cross-section of countries. A strategy that buys currencies of strong economies and sells currencies of weak economies generates high returns both in the cross section and over time. 

Figure 1 Disparity between interest rate and output gap spreads

Increasing diversity in UK economics

Arun Advani, Rachel Griffith, Sarah Smith, 15 October 2019

The future of UK economics is looking predominantly male and disproportionately privately educated. This column introduces #DiscoverEconomics – a campaign to increase diversity in economics led by the Royal Economic Society and with the support of a wide range of institutions involved in economic research, communication and policymaking, including the Bank of England, the Government Economic Service, the Society of Professional Economists and many leading research institutions. The campaign aims to attract more women, ethnic minority students, and students from state schools and colleges to study the subject at university. 

Figure 2 The widening gender gap

Growth and civilization

Diane Coyle

Brexit and legal traditions

Thorsten Beck

Randomized Controlled Trials

At a broad level, Esther Duflo focuses on poverty. In particular, she works on poverty in poor countries like India and Africa. One area that she has done extensive work in, and is particularly passionate about, is immunization. Here she speaks about the use of randomized controlled trials which revealed that although improving the supply of immunizations in India increased uptake, this could be substantially amplified by a little extra outlay on small incentives for people to have their children vaccinated.

The economics of an ageing population

David Bloom interviewed by Tim Phillips, 14 October 2019

Monetary policy should prevent deflation and avoid a bad equilibrium
     Rehn
Increasing diversity in UK economics
     Advani, Griffith, Smith
Sailing into uncharted demographic waters
     Bloom
The economics of an ageing population
     Bloom
Rethinking fiscal policy choices in the euro area
     De Grauwe, Ji
How domestic fiscal frameworks can contribute to sound fiscal policy
     Pench, Ciobanu, Zogala, Manescu
Recessions and size of the middle class
     Costa-i-Font, Batinti
The social suppression of labour supply
     Breza, Kaur, Krishnaswamy
E-cigarette taxation, pre-pregnancy and pre-natal smoking, and birth outcomes
     Abouk, Adams, Feng, Maclean, Pesko
Strong economy, strong currency
     Colacito, Riddiough, Sarno
How different technologies affect different workers
     Blanas, Gancia, Lee