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Abstract:
A seasoned literature suggests that a popularly elected presidency undermines the consolidation of representative democracy. The assumed mechanisms are generally located on the electoral and legislative levels. We develop and test a new theory holding that the “perils” of presidential elections are more severe, and more immediate, than previously assumed. Besides electoral and legislative stabilization, a popularly elected presidency impedes the development of stable party interactions on the executive level -a core characteristic of robust democracy. The effect is both direct (by challenging established patterns of government formation, in particular under powerful presidencies) as well as indirect (by disturbing electoral and legislative politics, which in turn affect executive politics). We demonstrate these relationships using panel analysis of a new dataset covering 61 European polities since 1848, and we scrutinize various cases to illustrate the mechanisms. Our findings have implications for current problems of constitutional design and institutional reform.
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