• Google is making big investments in genomics, healthcare application research and HIPAA compliance in the cloud, with much of that work being done through its Calico, DeepMind and Verily divisions.
   
• Amazon's health insurance company, Haven, started with Berkshire Hathaway and J.P. Morgan last year, is expanding to cover 30,000 employees. Amazon also acquired internet pharmacy PillPack, it’s actively building at-home medical diagnostic kits, and it’s built a product to mine patient health records. Pretty soon Alexa will be able to tell whether you’ve had a cold. Amazon and Apple, too, both have started building independent health clinics.
   
• Last month, Facebook announced a preventative health tool that makes recommendations for checkups and screenings based on users' demographic factors such as age and gender. (The social giant promised it won’t be sharing that information with health insurers or hospitals.) 

This week, we learned of Google's partnership with the Catholic health care system Ascension. Aimed at modernizing its information system with AI, the partnership was also engineered to help Google test the use of AI to spot patterns that doctors might have missed during their exams and diagnosis.  But it also gave Google access to thousands of patient health records without doctors' knowledge. Patients weren't explicitly told how their data would be used.

As data collection expands into every realm of our lives, the concept of privacy is becoming obsolete. Today, we criticize China’s social credit programs that use surveillance to collect data on its citizens and then rank, punish and reward people for their behaviors. How backwards and dystopian, we say. Yet the same big data landscape is playing out right here in the United States, though not directed by the highest levels of government.

Whether you get a loan or open a credit card has long been dependent on credit scores, a measure of your fiscal behavior. Your car insurance rates, too, depend on your driving record, tickets and number of accidents. Want more discounts? Then install a tracking device that gives insurers data on how fast you drive and more.

Health insurance has the potential to go in the same direction. Companies like Google and Amazon have started with wellness and will nudge closer to traditional healthcare. Your biometric data, such as your daily heart rate or sleep patterns, might lead to a suggestion of what meals you might eat or a nudge to get to the gym—which will matter if Amazon owns your health insurance company. Those preventative health promises are easier to sell to consumers today than say, a pitch to buy Amazon-branded drugs.

Last year, John Hancock (part of Manulife Financial) launched a U.S. program that rewards customers for healthy behaviors. When people exercise, meditate and engage in other healthy activities, they earn points that can be used for online purchases. The insurer, meanwhile, gets huge amounts of activity and lifestyle data in real time that lets them predict and adjust their pricing models down the road.

Emerging Tech Trend: Patient-Generated Health Data

Key Insight: Patients are creating a trove of data that could contribute to their healthcare provider’s overall assessment. The more devices we use as consumers, the more complete a picture A.I. companies have about our overall health and habits as individuals. Packaging all that data—and figuring out how to make use of it—is still a challenge.

Examples:  New software from companies like Validic allow doctors to collect health data from these consumer devices and incorporate it into their medical records—as long as patients give their consent. GE Healthcare, Meditech, Allscripts, eClinicalWorks and Cerner are all building products to make better use of our data.

What’s next: Healthcare systems and providers must shore up security fast. On a near-weekly basis, hackers are targeting hospitals and doctors, and holding patient data for ransom. In May 2017, hackers used the WannaCry malware to break into the UK’s National Health Service, crippling the nation’s hospitals and clinics. In January 2018, hackers used the remote access portal to break into a rural Indiana hospital.

Near-Futures Scenarios (2023 - 2028):

• Pragmatic: Big tech continues to develop apps that are either indispensably convenient, irresistibly addictive, or both, and we pay for them, not with cash, but with the data we (sometimes unwittingly) let the apps capture. But for the apps for health care and medical insurance, the stakes could literally be life-and-death. Consumers receive discounted premiums, copays, diagnostics and prescription fulfillment, but the data we give up in exchange leaves them more vulnerable to manipulation and invasion of privacy.
   
• Catastrophic: Profit-driven drugmakers exploit private health profiles and begin working with the Big Nine. They use data-based targeting to overprescribe patients, netting themselves billions of dollars. Big Pharma target and prey on people's addictions, mental health predispositions and more, which, while undetectable on an individual level, take a widespread societal toll.
   
• Optimistic: Health data enables prescient preventative care. A.I. discerns patterns within gargantuan data sets that are otherwise virtually undetectable to humans. Accurate predictive algorithms identifies complex combinations of risk factors for cancer or Parkinson's, offers early screening and testing to high-risk patients and encourages lifestyle shifts or treatments to eliminate or delay the onset of serious diseases. A.I. and health data creates a utopia of public health. We happily relinquish our privacy for a greater societal good. 

Action Meter:

Watchlist: Amazon; Manulife Financial; GE Healthcare; Meditech; Allscripts; eClinicalWorks; Cerner; Validic; HumanAPI; Vivify; Apple; IBM; Microsoft; Qualcomm; Google; Medicare; Medicaid; national health systems; insurance companies. 

New Research Available

How To Do Strategic Planning Like A Futurist

2019 Emerging Tech Trends Report - Launched at SXSW. The Future Today Institute’s 2019 Tech Trends Report is in its 12th year of publication and has received more than 7.8 million cumulative views. This is our biggest tech trends report ever––a 30% increase over last year, when we identified 225 trends and 10 weak signals. This sharp increase has to do with the advancement of many different technologies, which is causing acceleration across many different fields. Download a free copy of the full report or purchase a printed copy – details for both are here. View the entire report on Slideshare (part 1 and part 2) or read a synopsis on Medium.

For workshops, research collaborations and speaking requests, visit the Future Today Institute website.

FTI In The News 

Frontline Film: In The Age of AI. Stream here.

Popular Mechanics: What Would Happen If the Internet Went Down ... Forever? Read here.

BBC: Three things women need to know for the year 2030. Watch here. 

New York Times: Are You an Amazon or an Apple Family? Read here.

PBS: The Promise and Perils of Artificial Intelligence. Read here.

Psychology Today: Ethics and "Synthetic Media"  Read here.

Harvard Business Review: How AI Will Amplify Human Intelligence. Read here.

Fast Company: Privacy in 2034: A corporation owns your DNA (and maybe your body). Read more here.