Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Nov. 8-15

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

Nov. 9/ Saudi Aramco IPO: Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, will issue the prospectus for its initial public offering Saturday. Its shares are expected to start trading on Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s domestic stock exchange, on Dec. 11.

• What's happened so far: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman first floated the possibility of an Aramco IPO back in 2016, but the oil company’s stock market debut has been delayed by numerous disputes, particularly regarding valuation. Taking Aramco public is the flagship policy of the crown prince’s Vision 2030 plan, which seeks to diversify the Saudi economy and end its reliance on oil exports.
• The impact: The jury is out on whether Aramco’s debut will be the largest IPO in history, as it is dependent on how many shares the company decides to offer. Nevertheless, it’s likely to be used as a benchmark against which successful future IPOs will be measured. Aramco’s raise could also prove a litmus test for other oil majors, many of which are grappling with diminished interest as the world turns its back on fossil fuels.

Nov. 9/ Trump attends LSU-Alabama game: U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to attend the NCAA football game between the University of Alabama and Louisiana State University on Saturday. The high profile SEC matchup will be the third major sporting event Trump has attended in recent weeks and will surely bring heightened security and the potential for protests.

• What's happened so far: Trump was greeted with chants of “lock him up” when he made an appearance at Game 5 of the World Series in Washington, D.C., last week, and he received a mix of cheers and boos when he attended a UFC fight in New York City on Saturday. The SEC matchup will mark the first time a sitting U.S. president has attended an LSU-Alabama game. 
• The impact: Doors to Saturday’s game will open three hours before kickoff, and fans are encouraged to get to the stadium early to get through security. Alabama’s Student Government Association also warned student groups that disrupting the game could lead to a loss of reserved seating for the remainder of the season, though the university has attempted to walk back the statement. 

Nov. 10/ Spanish general election: Spanish voters will cast their ballots Sunday, with an eye on Catalonia after weeks of occasionally violent protests by Catalan separatists.

• What's happened so far: This is the country’s second election of the year, after politicians were unable to form a coalition following the election in April. In October, nine Catalan separatist leaders were sentenced to prison over their role in an independence referendum in 2017. Their sentencing sparked protests in Barcelona and Madrid. Right-wing parties are now campaigning on taking a harder stance on the separatist issue. Recent polls show the current prime minister and his socialist party are leading in polls despite losing support over his handling of the protests.
• The impact: Polls show parliament will likely stay deadlocked after the election. Right-wing parties, however, appear to be gaining momentum in the wake of the Catalan protests. That could spark even more protests and violence in Catalonia.

Nov. 10/ Romanian presidential election: Voters in Romania will head to the polls Sunday in the first round of the country’s presidential election — just a week after new Prime Minister Ludovic Orban survived a no-confidence vote.

• What's happened so far:  Recent polling shows incumbent president Klaus Iohannis continues to have a strong lead, with almost 40 percent of the intended vote. The race for second place, however, is now tightening between Save Romania Union leader Dan Barna and former prime minister and Social Democratic Party leader Viorica Dancila. The next round of voting is scheduled to take place on Nov. 24. 
• The impact: Romania has been in a period of political uncertainty for years, which was only heightened after the ruling Social Democratic government was ousted in a no-confidence vote last month. Orban, who is the fourth prime minister in three years, is expected to be watched closely as he attempts to ensure stability in the Balkan country. Romanians will return to the polls in the spring for local elections and in late 2020 for parliamentary elections. 

Nov. 12/ South Sudan government agreement deadline: The leaders of South Sudan have until Tuesday to form a government that includes representatives from the incumbent party and the opposition under the terms of a power-sharing agreement signed in August 2018. 

• What's happened so far: Civil war broke out in South Sudan in 2013 after President Salva Kiir accused his opposition deputy, Riek Machar, of staging a coup d’etat. The conflict, which has been fought along both political and ethnic lines, has killed almost 400,000 people and displaced more than 4 million. Although the 2018 deal established an uneasy peace between warring political factions, questions surrounding the army and security remain unresolved.
• The impact: Machar, who currently lives in exile in Khartoum, has said he will not return to Juba to participate in a new government on Nov. 12. Instead, he has proposed a delay, an option favored by civil society groups who believe rushing the process could engender further conflict. The international community, however, does not support postponement, and the United States has said it will consider applying sanctions to South Sudan’s leaders if they fail to meet the deadline.

Nov. 13/ Turkey’s Erdogan visits White House: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit President Trump at the White House on Wednesday, marking the first meeting between the two leaders since Turkey started a controversial military operation (members’ link) in northeast Syria last month to wrestle control away from Kurdish forces formerly allied with the United States.

• What's happened so far: Erdogan has come under heavy criticism — and faced the threat of economic sanctions — from Europe and the United States due to the military incursion. The operation followed the sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region, which left Turkey and Russia in control of enforcing Erdogan’s plan to establish a “safe-zone” free from his rival Kurdish fighters and open to the relocation of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.
• The impact: The two leaders reconfirmed Wednesday that the White House encounter will happen after Erdogan was angered by U.S. House resolution that formally recognized the Armenian genocide. Erdogan and Trump have a mutual interest in calming fears about northeast Syria, in addition to mending differences that could weigh on more than $20 billion of bilateral trade. Last year, the Justice Department dismissed charges against seven of Erdogan’s bodyguards who attacked protesters during Erdogan's 2017 visit to the White House.

Nov. 14/ Anti-ISIS coalition ministers meeting in Washington: Officials from more than 30 nations of the U.S-led coalition fighting the Islamic State are expected to gather on Thursday in Washington, D.C., for a meeting called by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian following the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

• What's happened so far: In a statement, the U.S. Department of State said the meeting will include strategy discussions in the wake of al-Baghdadi's death, and focus on recent developments in northeast Syria and their impact on the stability and security of the region. Specifically, the United State's withdrawal of remaining U.S. troops from Syria in mid-October and Turkey's offensive in the country will likely be major talking points. 
• The impact: European allies widely condemned the U.S. decision to withdraw from the Syrian-Turkish border, clearing the way for Turkey and Russia to establish a safe zone. That condemnation makes it unclear if the countries of the coalition will be able to reach any sort of consensus moving forward. 

What else matters:

Great Lakes winter storm: Though the official start of winter is more than six weeks away, areas along the Great Lakes are bracing for the first significant lake-effect snowfall of the season later this week.

• Watch for: Colder-than-normal winds are expected to blow from Canada over the Great Lakes this week, spreading snow showers from Michigan to central New York. Forecasts now call for lake-effect snow Thursday in parts of Lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, with the possibility for accumulations in the snowbelts of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on Friday. That weather pattern is expected to continue over the next two weeks, bringing progressively colder air and snowfall.

Chile protests: Income inequality protests in Chile, which began more than three weeks ago, show no sign of stopping. President Sebastián Piñera said he will not resign, despite a recent poll showing his job approval is at 14 percent. He also started to reach out to the left-wing opposition for talks. The protests have turned violent in some places, including an incident in Santiago that left two police officers hospitalized with burns.

• Watch for: At least 20 people have died since protests began in mid-October, while thousands have been detained. It’s unclear whether the demonstrations will stop while Piñera is still in office. He has promised more taxes for the rich, pay cuts for politicians and has even signed a bill guaranteeing a minimum income for Chilean workers, but protesters remain undeterred. Two major international summits set to be held in Chile have also been canceled amid the unrest.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Nov. 7: John Bolton scheduled to testify in impeachment inquiry

Nov. 9: Trump attends LSU-Alabama game; Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering prospectus is released

Nov. 10: Romanian presidential election; Spanish general election; Japan enthronement parade

Nov. 11: Trump attends NYC Veterans’ Day parade

Nov. 12: South Sudan transitional government deadline

Nov. 13: Turkey’s Erdogan travels to United States; U.S. House Intelligence Committee begins impeachment inquiry open hearings

Nov. 14: U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition ministers to meet in Washington

Nov. 15: Hong Kong temporary injunction banning online posts inciting violence ends 

Nov. 16: Sri Lankan presidential election; hearing on Catalan president arrest warrant

Nov. 17: Dubai Airshow begins; Belarus assembly elections

Nov. 19: First U.K. election debate; Virgin West Coast train manager strike

Nov. 20: Ethiopian state referendum on autonomy; fifth Democratic U.S. presidential debate

Nov. 22: Twitter ban on political ads comes into effect

Nov. 23: Pope Francis visits Japan and Thailand

Nov. 24: Guineau-Bissau presidential election; second round of Romanian presidential elections; Hong Kong local elections

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