Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Nov. 15-22

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

Nov. 15/ Hong Kong online posts injunction end: On Friday, an order by Hong Kong's High Court that bans the posting of personal details of police officers by protesters ends. It’s a practice that the government argues has been used by demonstrators to harass and incite violence against security forces during anti-government protests that have been ongoing for months (members' link).

• What's happened so far: The protests in Hong Kong, initially against the government’s decision to start extraditing wanted individuals in China, have spiralled into an all-out call for regime change and independence from the mainland. Scenes of violence by both police and protesters, as well as vandalism of public property, have increased in frequency as officials struggle to contain the discontent. The court order set to expire this week has already been extended by one week.
• The impact: The unrest has now reached Hong Kong’s college campuses — police on Monday began raids on university grounds, and students responded with Molotov cocktails and bricks. At least one school has ended its fall term early due to the clashes. Analysts say this is a marked sign of escalation, as university campuses were widely seen as the last refuge for protesters. Meanwhile, China has asked the United States to stop interfering in the crisis that many believe has no end in sight.

Nov. 16/ Louisiana gubernatorial run-off: Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards will attempt to secure a second term as governor on Saturday in Louisiana — a state President Donald Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. 

• What's happened so far: Edwards came up short of an outright victory in October's all-party primary, taking nearly 47 percent of the vote, while businessman Eddie Rispone took second in a contentious battle for conservative votes against Rep. Ralph Abraham. The two Republicans combined won 51 percent, with the congressman immediately endorsing Rispone in hopes of unseating the only Democratic governor in the U.S. South, and the last in Louisiana holding statewide office.
• The impact: Nationally, the race will be viewed in part as a barometer on the president's popularity. Trump headlined a rally for Rispone in Monroe in last week and another is scheduled for Thursday in Bossier City.

Nov. 16/ Sri Lankan presidential run-off: Voters will head to the polls in Sri Lanka on Saturday to choose their next president, after incumbent Maithripala Sirisena opted to not seek a second term. 

• What's happened so far: The election comes more than six months after a series of deadly bombings across the country on Easter Sunday left more than 250 people dead. Those attacks have pushed national security issues front and center in the lead-up to the election. Former Defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa is widely considered to be the favorite against housing minister Sajith Premadasa for the role once held by his brother, Mahinda.
• The impact: Some are concerned a victory for Rajapaksa would mark a return to family-rule, with Mahinda as the "obvious choice" for prime minister. The election comes just over a year after the country was thrown into a constitutional crisis, when President Sirisena appointed Mahinda as prime minister, despite rejections from Parliament. 

Nov. 19/ Virgin West Coast train manager strike: Members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union are set to walk off the job across the United Kingdom on Tuesday over the dismissal of a co-worker.

• What's happened so far: The spokesperson for Virgin West Coast said a train manager was dismissed for gross misconduct after a disabled customer wasn’t allowed to board a train. The union has said their colleague who was fired has been “disgracefully treated” by management. The union also accused their bosses of “efforts to mislead, intimidate and harass members.” In recent weeks, union workers have undertaken an overtime ban.
• The impact: The company says they have “robust contingencies” in place and plan to run the majority of their trains during the strike. Rail service, however, will likely be affected, especially on the line between Holyhead in Wales and London.

Nov. 19/ U.K. general election debate: On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face off against Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in the first TV debate of Britain’s 2019 general election. 

• What's happened so far:  Although the election may seem like it is being fought entirely on Brexit, the campaign has been punctuated with debates about health and social care, as well as flooding across Northern England. The Liberal Democrats — who’ve said that if they win a majority, they’ll cancel Brexit by revoking Article 50 — will not be participating and may launch a legal challenge to stop the debate. Scotland’s SNP, the third largest party in the previous parliament, are also suing.
• The impact: Debates have a long history of upsetting the political balance of an election, though they’re relatively rare in U.K. politics. This debate may largely serve as a preview of policies or ideas that will make it into the party’s platforms, which are expected to be released in the coming weeks.

Nov. 20/ Sidama independence referendum: Members of Ethiopia’s Sidama group, who are currently contained in one of the country’s most ethnically diverse southern regions, will go to the polls on Wednesday to vote on the creation of a new autonomous state to house their community. 

• What's happened so far:  Ethiopia’s 1994 constitution divided the country into nine ethnically-based states, with the provision that any unrepresented ethnic group can ask the government for a referendum on creating a new state within a one-year timeline. The Sidama group filed such a request in July 2018. But when it became clear this past summer that the government was not going to meet the deadline, clashes broke out, leaving 53 people dead and forcing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to promise a vote within five months.
• The impact: If the Sidama are successful in their bid for independence, which analysts expect, it will further the campaigns of the eight other ethnic groups in Ethiopia that are also seeking autonomy. While this could improve rural economic development, as each region is apportioned its own budget, it may also lead to intra-ethnic violence or even cause the break-up of the nation.

Nov. 21/ U.S. government faces funding fight: Congress plans to vote next week on a bill that would extend government funding through Dec. 20, likely setting up a budget battle around the same time as a vote on impeaching President Trump.

• What's happened so far: Lawmakers announced a bipartisan agreement on Tuesday that would land on Trump’s desk before the government runs out of money on Thursday. Congress will likely avoid a situation that occurred less than a year ago when Trump refused to sign a budget deal, causing a 35-day government shutdown.
• The impact: While the White House has signaled their approval of the stopgap measure, Trump has also floated the idea of shutting down the government over his impeachment. This stopgap resolution also does not satisfy the key question of how much money will go towards a border wall. Another shutdown could happen if that isn’t resolved. 

What else matters:

Israeli-Palestinian violence in Gaza: Earlier this week, an Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bahaa Abu al-Ata, drawing a barrage of rocket fire from the strip that reached as far north as Tel Aviv. This latest escalation also raises concerns of a protracted intensification of fighting between the two sides after months of relative calm (members' link). Israel's army says at least five rockets were launched Thursday, just hours after a ceasefire went into effect. 

• Watch for: Reaction from Hamas, the Islamist group that rules Gaza, will be closely watched for signals on whether it will join Islamic Jihad’s call to avenge the death of Abu al-Ata or work to maintain the unannounced understanding reached with Israel to avoid direct confrontation. On the Israeli side, Benny Gantz — the former army chief of staff now in charge of forming the nation’s next government — expressed support for the operation, even as critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed it was part of an effort to maintain his hold on power.

Australia fires: Queensland and New South Wales have been hit by one of the worst wildfire seasons on record over the past week, forcing the Australian government to declare its first state of emergency since 2009. At least three people have died so far, while more than 100 others were injured. The fires have ripped through more than one million hectares, damaging more than 150 homes.

• Watch for: Fire authorities have warned that the fires could be worse than the deadly Black Saturday blazes, which killed 173 people and burned 1.1 million acres in 2009. While a number of fires have since been contained, some people have been told it was too late to leave their homes. Fire department officials have warned a new wave of fire danger is expected over the next week, due to the return of hot, dry and windy conditions.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Nov. 14: U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition ministers to meet in Washington; Trump rally in Bossier City, La.

Nov. 15: Hong Kong temporary injunction banning online posts inciting violence ends 

Nov. 16: Sri Lankan presidential election; hearing on Catalan president arrest warrant

Nov. 17: Dubai Airshow begins; Belarus assembly elections

Nov. 18: U.S. House plans vote this week to stave off shutdown

Nov. 19: First U.K. election debate; Virgin West Coast train manager strike

Nov. 20: Ethiopian state referendum on autonomy; fifth Democratic U.S. presidential debate

Nov. 22: Twitter ban on political ads comes into effect

Nov. 23: Pope Francis visits Japan and Thailand

Nov. 24: Guinea-Bissau presidential election; second round of Romanian presidential elections; Hong Kong local elections

Nov. 25: President Trump hosts Bulgarian prime minister

Nov. 27: Namibian general election

Nov. 28: Thanksgiving

Nov. 29: Black Friday

Dec. 3: NATO leaders meeting in London

Dec. 5: OPEC meeting in Vienna; French rail officials plan strike over retirement reforms

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