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The Plastic Economy 

Let the holiday guilt begin.

Starting this week, Americans will spend $730.7 billion over the holidays. All that “stuff” comes with packaging—half of which will be made of plastic. In fact, waste doubles over the holiday season, accounting for 25 million more tons of garbage between Thanksgiving and New Year’s in the U.S. alone.

This problem is far more complicated that it may first appear. Plastic is made from petrochemicals, and the oil and gas industry is a major contributor to the global economy. Which is why banning plastics outright won't work. Until our automotive, transportation and manufacturing sectors have either gone completely electric or have found an alternative source of fuel, the oil and gas industry needs to remain solvent. 

But there's hope! Enter the enzymes: Last year, researchers at the University of Portsmouth accidentally discovered a plastic-eating enzyme that could help break down larger pieces of plastic and aid in recycling efforts. French biotech company Carbios will produce a new generation of plastics for bottles, packaging and film that include enzymes that trigger biodegradation after use. UK-based Recycling Technologies is working to turn traditionally un-recyclable plastics into “plaxx,” or virgin plastic, wax and oils. Industry funding and support could speed up progress and lead to plastic-eating enzymes and other biomaterials that can break down plastics – without creating new environmental problems – at scale.

The Plastic Problem

Versatile, cheap and necessary, plastic has become pervasive. It keeps food from spoiling, protects products and has actually reduced the package weight.

But it’s also become the scourge of the world: Some 8.3 billion tons of plastic has been produced since the 1950s, and only 9% of that plastic has been recycled.  In addition to piling up in oceans and landfills, plastic, when exposed to the elements, also releases methane and ethylene—two greenhouse gases that worsen climate change, according to new research by the University of Hawaii. 

Emerging Trend: Corporate Sustainability


Key Insight: Companies engaged in corporate sustainability are balancing long-term stakeholder value along with traditional shareholder value using economic, social, environmental, ethical, cultural factors as prioritized dimensions of doing business. These companies incorporate longer-term planning, and they intentionally look at the next-order implications of their actions. 

Some companies are developing new materials and pushing environmental packaging, as part of a broader effort to make sustainability a core corporate value. This isn’t just about rejecting plastic straws. Any organization can follow suit by developing long-term strategy, vision and R&D plans to create new business opportunities, which help shareholders while also helping the planet. 

Examples: Just this month, Business Waste, a U.K. trash company, just made a public plea to B, asking them to clamp down on Christmas waste. Ikea started using biodegradable packaging from mushrooms, and Walmart recently announced it would would work with suppliers to achieve 100% recyclable, reusable or compostable packaging by 2025. Origin Materials will make plastic bottles from sawdust and cardboard. Evian promised to use recycled plastic in all its water bottles by 2025. Starbucks pledged to eliminate plastic straws by 2020. British supermarket Morrisons will bring back traditional brown paper bags for loose fruit and vegetables, and a number of cities have banned plastic bags at grocery stores. Adidas created a whole line of shoes made with recycled plastic called Adidas Parley, partnering with Parley for the Oceans, an environmental group combatting ocean plastic pollution.

What’s Next: Small companies and scientists are leading the charge for more sustainable smart packaging. Efforts include moisture-control and temperature sensors incorporated into QR codes to antimicrobial and edible packaging— even packaging that eats itself after it is no longer needed. Saltwater Brewery in South Florida designed plastic rings for its six-packs of beer to be biodegradable and edible. Berlin-based Infarm created a renewable sheet of plastic that folds to create a self-contained package. University of Minnesota researchers are developing new kinds of polymers that will self-destruct or “unzip” when exposed to light, heat, or acid. Stockholm-based Tomorrow Machine has also developed oil packaging made from caramelized sugar and coated wax. Designed for rice, oil and smoothies, you crack the package like an egg and melt it in water. This kind of active and intelligent packaging used for meat has been shown to extend shelf life and cut costs. 

 

Mid-Futures Scenarios (2026 - 2031):

  • Optimistic: We approach a zero-waste system for plastic production. New laws require disposable single-use products to be made of plastics that can be entirely broken down using an organic process, an organic or biodegradable alternative, or recycled and recyclable plastics. New technologies deconstruct existing plastic back into component materials for reuse, and companies get fined if they produce virgin plastics that cannot be fully digested by an enzyme or other biological process. We reclaim our oceans and earth from plastic pollution, which diminishes because few new plastics are introduced. We see notable improvements in rehabilitative ecological efforts and the overall health of the planet.
     
  • Pragmatic:  Companies continue to innovate and create alternative materials for products and packaging. But those alternatives still come at a premium. Less eco-conscious companies continue to use traditional cost-saving plastics and maintain a cost advantage. 
     
  • Catastrophic:  A global recession forces corporations to abandon R&D and “green” initiatives to save money, leaving them more dependent on plastics than ever before. Governments roll back even moderate regulations on climate-harming plastic production in an attempt to boost national economies. This leaves the door wide open for massive scale manufacturing of virgin plastics. These materials flood the planet, clogging various biomes and playing a major role in the widespread collapse of our global ecosystem.

    Action Meter:



Watchlist: Amazon; Walmart; Ikea; Ecovative; Ocean Cleanup; University of Portsmouth; Origin Materials; Business Waste; Starbucks; Adidas; Parley for the Oceans; Morrisons; Salt Water Brewery; Infarm; University of Minnesota; Tomorrow Machine; Chevron; Ingersoll Rand; Carbios; Recycling Technologies; University of Portsmouth; The Seabin Project.

2020 Emerging Tech Trend Report


It's nearing December and some of you have written or called asking when our annual report will be published. For the past few years, we have launched it March at the SXSW festival. As a member of our mailing list, you will get a message the weekend of March 13, 2020 with a link to download our 13th annual Emerging Tech Trends Report.

 

New Research Available


The Future Today Institute's research is open source. We invite you to read, share and build on our work. 



Our 3rd annual Entertainment Media and Technology Trends Report. This industry-specific report has 157 trends for 2020 and launched on Saturday, September 14th. Read more and download here
 



How To Do Strategic Planning Like A Futurist
 – Published in the Harvard Business Review. Futurists think about time differently, and company strategists could learn from their approach. For any given uncertainty about the future — whether that’s risk, opportunity, or growth — we tend to think in the short- and long-term simultaneously. To do this, FTI uses a framework that measures certainty and charts actions, rather than simply marking the passage of time as quarters or years. That’s why FTI's timelines aren’t actually lines at all — they are cones. Read our research and download the HBR article to share with your team.
 
 

2019 Emerging Tech Trends Report - Launched at SXSW. The Future Today Institute’s 2019 Tech Trends Report is in its 12th year of publication and has received more than 7.8 million cumulative views. This is our biggest tech trends report ever––a 30% increase over last year, when we identified 225 trends and 10 weak signals. This sharp increase has to do with the advancement of many different technologies, which is causing acceleration across many different fields. Download a free copy of the full report or purchase a printed copy – details for both are here. View the entire report on Slideshare (part 1 and part 2) or read a synopsis on Medium.

For workshops, research collaborations and speaking requests, visit the Future Today Institute website.

FTI IRL

Thinking about the future? Say hello to the Future Today Institute when we're in a city near you. Here's where we'll be the next few weeks:


Rethinking Conference
Oslo, Norway
December 2

World Economic Forum
Davos, Switzerland
January 21 - 24

FTI In The News 


Visionary Artistry Magazine: Amy Webb: Strategically Predicting the Future. Read here.

Assume Tech: Why AI is a threat to democracy – and what we can do to stop it. Read here.

Forbes:
BPS/Frontline's "In the Age of AI" Is Profoundly Exciting—and Frightening Read here

AlleyWatch: Is China an AI Security Concern?  Read here.

PBS: The Promise and Perils of Artificial Intelligence. Read here.

GoTechDaily: 
Why AI is a Danger to Democracy—and What We Can Do to End It  Read here.

Harvard Business Review: How AI Will Amplify Human Intelligence. Read here.

Fast Company: Privacy in 2034: A corporation owns your DNA (and maybe your body). Read more here.

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