Hi there,

In today's Signal we'll outline the arguments for a global approach to governing Big Tech, look at large-scale protests in Iran, worry about Chinese troops in Hong Kong, and track the return of a controversial political figure in Sri Lanka.

Send us your love/hate here, and follow us on Twitter and Instagram.

-Kevin and the Signalistas

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Hi there,

In today's Signal we'll outline the arguments for a global approach to governing Big Tech, look at large-scale protests in Iran, worry about Chinese troops in Hong Kong, and track the return of a controversial political figure in Sri Lanka.

Send us your love/hate here, and follow us on Twitter and Instagram.

-Kevin and the Signalistas

 

A few days ago, the New York Times published a bombshell report on the Chinese government's systematic oppression of Muslims in Western China. The story was about many things: human rights, geopolitics, Chinese society – but it was also about technology: Beijing's repression in Xinjiang province is powered in part by facial recognition, big data, and other advanced technologies.

It's a concrete example of a broader trend in global politics: technology is a double-edged sword with sharp political consequences. Artificial intelligence, for example, can help develop new medicines but it can also support surveillance states. Social media helps nourish democracy movements and entertains us with cat memes, but it also feeds ISIS and 4Chan.


There are geopolitical considerations at work here too: the US and China are slipping into a technology "Cold War" over technologies like AI and 5G that will shape both economic growth and the future of military power. Meanwhile, Europe is trying to lead a new regulatory front against Western tech giants that have run roughshod over users' privacy. The US, for its part, isn't sure what to do: calls for more regulation are getting louder, but policymakers are leery of hamstringing Silicon Valley with new restrictions right as the US steps up its tech competition with China.

It's a mess out there. To manage—and possibly avoid—a damaging split that could stop globalization in its tracks, Ian Bremmer, the founder of GZERO Media's parent company, Eurasia Group, called on Monday for a new approach to managing global tech competition.

His idea is to create two new global organizations:

First, a kind of global referee to assess the world's current progress in managing data and emerging technologies like AI. This would be modelled after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body that serves a similar function on the science of climate change.

Second, a World Data Organization (WDO) modelled on the World Trade Organization — a club of like-minded countries that believe in "online openness and transparency" that could set and enforce norms around data privacy and digital trade.

There are some clear benefits to this approach: a WDO would make the world safer helping countries develop shared norms on privacy, cybersecurity, and AI safety. And it would help preserve the kind of country-to-country collaboration that spurs positive technological innovation.

But there are also two big challenges: First, the Western countries that might form the core of these organizations actually hold very different views on the appropriate trade-offs between Silicon Valley profits and users' privacy. Consensus won't come easily.

Second, how would these bodies deal with China? Using WTO membership as an enticement to try to mould China's economy in a more "Western" direction led Beijing to embrace some market forces, but only up to a point. (And it did not convince the Chinese Communist party to liberalize politically). It's not clear that a WDO would be any more effective at getting China to reform. And yet, excluding China entirely might deepen the rifts that a new global platform is meant to address.

It's obvious that new approaches to managing global technology competition are needed. New global institutions are one potential solution. But we'd love to hear your ideas, too. You can write to us here.


 

 
 
 

Increasingly violent anti-government protests in Hong Kong have dealt a major blow to the city's once booming economy. Tourism – an economic lifeline in that city – has dropped, and retailers are suffering from a sharp decline in sales. Now, six months since the unrest began, Hong Kong has recorded its first recession in a decade, meaning its economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters. Here's a look at how Hong Kong's quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth has fared during the past two years.


 

 
 
 

Tehran's Next Move: "We don't want an Islamic Republic, we don't want it," was the chant heard among some protesters in Tehran over the weekend after the government announced a 50 percent fuel price hike meant to fund broader support for the country's poor. Under crippling US sanctions, the country's economy has plummeted, unleashing a "tsunami" of unemployment. What started Friday as nationwide economic protests took on a political coloring, as protestors in some cities tore up the flag and chanted "down with [Supreme Leader] Khamenei." The unrest seems to be related, at least indirectly, to widespread demonstrations against Tehran-backed regimes in Iraq and Lebanon as well. Economically-motivated protests erupt in Iran every few years, but they tend to subside within weeks under harsh government crackdowns. So far, the authorities have shut down the internet to prevent protestors from using social media to organize rallies. But Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps has warned of more "decisive action" if the unrest continues.


China's army sweeping up Hong Kong? A central question hangs over the ongoing turmoil in Hong Kong: Will China's soldiers intervene? Elite troops of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) are garrisoned in Hong Kong and the city's basic law says they can help maintain public order, but may not "interfere in local affairs." As the battle of wills between protesters and local police rages on, some observers saw ominous signs over the weekend: on Saturday, some of the PLA troops took to the streets with brooms and plastic buckets to help clean up the debris following demonstrations. PLA troops have left their garrisons in Hong Kong just twice in the past 22 years, and they would not have done so now without orders known at the highest levels of the Chinese government. Is this whistle-as-you-work cleaning brigade a warning from the mainland that the army's role can quickly expand?

Sri Lanka's new president: Former defense Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected president of Sri Lanka on Sunday, soundly defeating a candidate from the current government. Rajapaksa's campaign focused on tax cuts to spur growth and tighter security, particularly after the Islamic State's horrific Easter bombings this spring. But Rajapaksa is a polarizing figure in a deeply divided society: as defense secretary he oversaw the military defeat of the Tamil separatist movement during a brutal civil war, and has faced allegations that he committed human rights violations during that time. He and his brother, former strongman president Mahinda Rajapaksa, also favor closer relations with China, a major and controversial new investor in the Sri Lankan economy. We're watching to see how the new government positions the country in an increasingly delicate dance between Beijing and its traditional allies in India.

What We're Ignoring

Meaningless elections in Belarus: To be honest, Sunday's parliamentary vote in Belarus didn't exactly have us on the edge of our seats. The last time general elections were held there, only two of the legislature's 110 seats went to figures opposed to President Alexander Lukashenko, who prides himself on being "Europe's last dictator." But this time around the result was even more ridiculous: precisely zero opposition figures were elected (the two from last time were barred from running). Lukashenko says his elections are fair, and we are of course ignoring that. More interesting is whether Lukashenko, who has run Belarus for a quarter of a century, provokes any kind of backlash when he stands for "reelection" next year, as he intends to do.


 

 
 
 

13 billion: Building a single state-of-the-art US aircraft carrier costs about $13 billion, a figure that exceeds total military spending by countries like Poland, the Netherlands, or Pakistan. But as China's ability to hit seaborne targets improves, the Economist asks if carriers are "too big to fail." (Come for that, stay for the many strange Top Gun references in the piece.)


87.5: Iranian intelligence officers expensed 87.5 Euros worth of brib– we mean gifts – for a Kurdish commander whom they were cultivating in Iraq. That and many other details of Tehran's extensive cloak and dagger efforts to gain sway over Iraq's post-Hussein government feature in this extraordinary New York Times / Intercept report, based on hundreds of leaked Iranian cables.

2,280: Turkey says it is currently holding 2,280 members of the Islamic State, representing 30 different countries. About half of those are from Western European countries, and of those, 700 are children. Ankara says it will deport them all, creating a challenge for their home countries' legal systems.

200 million: Visa has paid $200 million to purchase a 20% stake in the Nigerian electronic payments company Interswitch. The deal makes Interswitch the first so-called unicorn (a startup company with a valuation of $1bn or more) to be completely homegrown in Africa.


 

 
 

This edition of Signal was written by Kevin Allison, Gabrielle Debinski, Alexander Kliment, and Willis Sparks. Graphics magic by Ari Winkleman and Gabriella Turrisi. Spiritual counsel from Leon Levy.

 

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