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Today we'll learn how a group of shaggy gunmen in 1979 shaped today's Middle East, wonder who's going to pay for US troops in Korea, check on Bolivia's new president, mark the impeachment calendar for Democrats, and build a giant dog statue in Turkmenistan.

Write us here or find us on Twitter and YouTube.

-Alex Kliment

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Hi there,

Today we'll learn how a group of shaggy gunmen in 1979 shaped today's Middle East, wonder who's going to pay for US troops in Korea, check on Bolivia's new president, mark the impeachment calendar for Democrats, and build a giant dog statue in Turkmenistan.

Write us here or find us on Twitter and YouTube.

-Alex Kliment

 

Forty years ago today, dozens of bearded gunmen stormed the holiest site in Islam, the Grand Mosque at Mecca, in Saudi Arabia.

They held the complex for two weeks before a French-trained Saudi force (pictured above) rooted them out, but the fallout from the attack went on to shape the modern Middle East in ways that are still with us today: in the scourge of transnational jihadism and the deepening rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.


It's worth recalling the backdrop in November 1979. Cairo had recently allied itself with the US and made a controversial peace deal with Israel at Camp David that would later lead to Egyptian president Anwar Sadat's assassination. The Iranian revolution had just brought to power a Shiite Islamic theocracy that was immediately a political and sectarian rival to the Saudis. The godless Soviets were mulling their fateful invasion of Afghanistan. And several years earlier, the Saudi King himself had been assassinated by an extremist relative who resented his introduction of television to the kingdom.

The gunmen who took the mosque at Mecca were of a similar mindset. Their leader, Juhayman ("the scowler") el-Oteibi, was a homegrown Saudi religious fanatic who believed – as did many of the kingdom's clerics, in fact – that Saudi Arabia's rapid, oil-fueled modernization of the 1970s had caused it to stray from strict Islamic ideals: Too many women in the workforce. Too much TV. Too many foreigners. Too many Saudi princes carrying on in Monaco.

Stung by Iran's external challenge to its legitimacy and Juhayman's internal one, Saudi Arabia radically changed course: it rolled back all social liberalization, imposing the clerical establishment's strict wahhabi interpretation of Islam at home and aggressively exporting it abroad.

Saudi Arabia's rulers made this bargain in part because they thought it would head off the growth of anti-government extremism in the Kingdom. And in part because, fearful of Iran's rise, it made sense to double down on extreme Islamic piety in the face of a nearby theocratic rival.

There are three things happening today that flow directly from all of this:

First, today's transnational jihadism was hugely inspired by Juhayman's attack – the first spectacular jihadist operation of its scale in the modern world – and by the ultra-conservative ideology that motivated it. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's funding of Wahhabism around the globe helped nurture much larger transnational jihad networks like Al-Qaeda (which arose out of later Saudi and US support for holy warriors in Afghanistan) and ISIS.

Second, Saudi Arabia is only now undoing the legacy of 1979: Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the kingdom, has framed his tightly controlled experiments in social liberalization as an attempt to put the country back on its pre-1979 course.

Lastly, it was a moment that crystallized the Iran-Saudi rivalry that continues to cut across the region today. As Wall Street Journal correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, who quite literally wrote the book on the Siege of Mecca, explained to us, the one thing that the House of Saud, the clerics, and the Juhayman types could all agree on was that Iran, as a Shiite power, was a heretical danger that must be confronted. Now, forty years later, even as Saudi Arabia carefully liberalizes at home, the rivalry with Iran is as fierce and dangerous as ever.


 

 
 
 

To understand better how the legacy of the siege of Mecca is still with us today, we put some questions to Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign affairs correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, and author of the single best source out there on the subject, his magnificently written 2007 book The Siege of Mecca. He believes we are once again at a historical moment in Saudi Arabia, but wonders if the lessons of 1979 have been learned.

Read the whole interview here.


 

 
 
 

In recent years, Republicans have come to dominate most of the state legislatures in the US. Ironically, it was during the Obama-era that the GOP made major headway in states that had long been considered safely blue. State legislatures are now redder than they've been in nearly a century, and in most parts of the country, one party holds all the levers of power (governorship and legislatures). For the first time since 1914, there's only one split legislature in the entire country: Minnesota. To be sure, some state races are bucking the trend: Kentucky and Louisiana, both deep-red states, recently elected Democratic governors. Here's a look at how Democratic and Republican control of state legislatures has evolved over the past four decades.


 

 
 
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Bolivia's polarizing interim president: After Bolivian president Evo Morales and his deputies were pushed out of office for rigging last month's presidential election, little-known opposition Senator Jeanine Añez took office as interim leader. Añez has promised to guide the country toward a "national consensus" ahead of new elections in January, but she's already risked deepening political divides. On day one, she lugged a giant bible into office, in a perceived swipe at Morales, who had elevated popular indigenous traditions that the ultra-conservative Ms. Añez once called "satanic." She's also abruptly reoriented the country's foreign ties toward Latin America's conservative governments. On her watch, at least eight pro-Morales protesters have been killed by the authorities. Morales himself, exiled in Mexico, says he's the victim of a coup and wants to run in the elections. Añez says he's barred, but his MAS political party still controls both houses of congress and has to be a partner for any smooth transition. Some compromise is necessary, but things don't seem to be going that way.


Impeachment and 2020 Democratic primaries: As the Trump impeachment process grinds on, a potential problem is emerging for some Democratic presidential candidates. If the House impeaches President Trump, there will be a trial in the Senate. If that trial is held in January/February, it will force Democratic senators to be in Washington rather than on the campaign trail engaging voters directly. That's potential bad news for presidential-hopeful Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker—and might be good news for rival candidates Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, who won't be chained to Washington. But do Republicans really want to help Biden beat Warren and Sanders, both of whom might be easier for Trump to beat? We'll be watching to see how Democrats in the House and Senate try to manage this problem.

US walks out on South Korea: Talks on the cost of basing US troops in South Korea ended abruptly Tuesday when the Americans walked out of the meeting, accusing Seoul of falling short of "fair and equitable burden sharing." Washington had demanded a five-fold yearly increase (to $5 billion) in Seoul's contribution to maintaining 28,500 American troops on the Korean peninsula. Earlier this year, Seoul agreed to pay $890 million, more than 40 percent of the day-to-day expenses of keeping US troops in the area. It also paid more than 90 percent of the hefty cost of relocating the US' main Korean base, and buys billions of dollars worth of US arms. Until now, US presidents have seen Washington's security commitments to Seoul — which date back to the 1950s when the Korean War ended without a peace treaty — as mutually beneficial: South Korea gets protection from the North, while the US gets to safeguard its security and economic interests in East Asia. Will President Trump's hardline approach to South Korea work? And will it set an enduring precedent? We're watching because similar talks on cost-sharing with Japan, Germany, and NATO are slated for next year.

What We're Ignoring

Dog days in Turkmenistan: Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the eccentric autocrat who runs the gas-rich Central Asian nation of Turkmenistan, has long adored his country's renowned horse breeds (even when he's falling off of them.) But now he is pivoting to a different point on the mammalian map: dog. In particular, the Alabai, a hardy little sheepdog that has been part of Turkmenistan's traditionally nomadic society for thousands of years. Recently, he's been writing books and poems about the dogs, and now he plans to build a 50-foot tall statue of one in the capital as a symbol of national unity. We are ignoring this because we're spoiled by the last Turkmen president's penchant for building 25-story gold plated statues of himself that rotated to face the sun. Next to that, this pup stuff doesn't stack up.


 

 
 
 

2,887: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has now broken a century-old record to become the longest serving PM in Japan's history, at 2,887 days. It's a stunning feat for a premier who made a political comeback after quitting in 2007 due to a series of embarrassing scandals.


100: More than 100 Iranians have been killed by Iran's security forces in the days since a fuel price hike provoked nationwide protests. According to Amnesty International, Iran's supreme leader himself gave security personnel the green light to use force to crush protests.

100,000: The US has the highest rate of children in detention of any country. Uncle Sam currently has more than 100,000 in immigration-related custody alone, according to a new UN report. That's about a third of all children who are held in immigration detention centers worldwide.

3,769: The Amazon rainforest shrank by 3,769 square miles in the year ending this past July – that's an area about 12 times the size of New York City. It's the biggest annual loss in more than a decade, the strongest indicator to date that deforestation in the Amazon has surged since Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro came to power with a pledge to loosen environmental restrictions.


 

 
 

This edition of signal was written by Alex Kliment, Gabrielle Debinski, and Willis Sparks. The graphic was made by Paige Fusco. Spiritual counsel from the French commandos who smuggled a case of Sauvignon Blanc into Saudi Arabia while they planned the raid to retake the Grand Mosque.

 

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