Highlights
Monitored: During November, the whole country received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 450 mm and 200 mm of rainfall respectively compared to the average. The Central Islands are experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 0C above normal. This is extremely warm
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4th and 5th. On the 6th and 7th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm for the northern and central parts next week.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. Wind is north easterly.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| 16th November |
Up to 30 mm in the southern and central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands. |
| 17th – 18th November |
No Rainfall. |
| 19th November |
Up to 20 mm in the central islands. |
| 20th November |
Up to 50 mm in the southern and central islands; up to 10 mm in northern islands. |
| 21st November |
Up to 5 mm in the southern islands. |
| 22nd November |
Up to 20 mm in the northern islands. |
| 23rd November |
Up to 10 mm in the northern islands. |
| 24th November |
Up to 70 mm in the northern islands; and up to 30 mm in the central islands. |
| 25th November |
Up to 30 mm in the central islands. |
| 26th November |
Up to 50 mm in the entire country. |
| 27th November |
Up to 20 mm in the central and southern islands and up to 15 mm in northern islands. |
| 28th November |
Up to 50 mm in the central; up to 30 mm in southern; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. |
| 29th – 30th November |
Up to 50 mm in the entire country. |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
In November, the whole country received up to 75 mm of rainfall above than normal for the season. The entire country received up to 450 mm of total rainfall.
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Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4 th and 5 th. On the 6 th and 7 th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands. On the 8 th, rainfall up to 70 mm of is expected in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in central island; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 9 th, rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands.
Image caption:- Left: Total 6-day precipitation forecast
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI -November 19, 2019)
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
1 0C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO was significant in Phase 7 from Nov 11-13, and in Phase 8 from Nov 14-30 Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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