Survation on behalf of The Economist - Wrexham Constituency
Survation conducted a telephone constituency poll on behalf of The Economist in Wrexham
Details
- Fieldwork dates 27th-30th November.
- Conducted by telephone, to a combination of mobile and landline data
Get the data:
https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/07120205/Wrexham-Constituency-Poll-27-30-November.xlsx
Commentary, Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive, Survation
Labour gained the seat of Wrexham in the 1918 General Election and have held it ever since, however in a seat estimated to have voted 58% Leave in the EU Referendum in work by by our own election consultant Professor Chris Hanretty the case FOR coordination by the remain parties to survive this election is rather clear 
Putting aside the debate about whether Labour, offering a second referendum is a remain party or not the voting intention results in Wrexham equate to:
Leave (CON + BREX) 53%
Remain (LD + LAB +GRE + LD + PC) 47%
Considering there has been a minor shift to Remain observed in Wales since the referendum - our MRP model showed Wales as a whole flipping to remain by 2018. Wrexham appears to have split neatly down current Brexit attitude lines in terms of party choice with the added problem for Labour that both Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems have eaten into their 2017 vote share.
It would seem likely that many Lib Dem, Plaid and Green voters in Wrexham would be surprised to see a snapshot poll indicating the end of Labour's 101 year tenure in their seat and so the extent to which voters across marginal seats in GB appreciate the current political landscape by polling day remains to be seen.
If historically high numbers of voters act on the basis of their own "least worse outcome" rather than voting for the party that is their actual first preference a Conservative majority is far from assured, however the magnitude of such a phenomenon and the effect of the advocacy for such behaviour may not be fully measurable until polling day itself.
Elsewhere in the poll:
Preferred Brexit outcome by party
Best Prime Minister Attitudes
<ENDS>
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