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Next Automaker To Reach 200,000 In US EV Sales
The last week were quite the roller coaster ride when it came to the status of the Federal EV tax credit. First, over the last weekend many sites reported that Congress might extend the tax credit, but then on Tuesday it was reported that President Trump had intervened and said he would veto any plans to extend the tax credit.
Both Tesla and GM have long since passed the 200,000 threshold of US EV sales that starts the phaseout of the tax credit over 8 quarters. But with the credit no longer likely to be extended, many are wondering which automaker will be the next to reach the 200K threshold. While Nissan currently has the third most sales, the company only has the Ariya planned for the US market, perhaps arriving in 2021 or 2022.
On the other hand, both Ford and Toyota have new EV models that could see very strong sales in the US beginning in 2020 and especially in 2021. These include:
- Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV
- Ford Mustang Mach-E
- Ford Escape PHEV
Ford also could see the F-150 electric pickup reach market in 2021 or 2022 and will also have PHEV versions of the Lincoln Aviator and Corsair reach dealers in 2020.
70,000 US Level 2 and DCFC Connections
As of December 18, 2019, the US has surpassed the milestone of 70,000 Level 2 and DC fast charging connections, and at 25,000+ locations. (Note: the AFDC databased only lists a few connections and locations from Volta, which I have added to the AFDC numbers.)
With an estimated 1.37 million EVs in the US, this equates to a ratio of roughly 19.3 L2 and DCFC connections per EV. Assuming sales of approximately 389,000 EVs in 2020, an additional 22,000 L2 and DCFC connections will be needed to maintain a ration of 19 EVs to charging connection.
First Decade of Modern EV Sales in the US: Slow & Bumpy
Growth of electric vehicle sales in the US this past decade did not take off as many EV advocates had expected or hoped. A couple of highlights to the decade:
- About 1.37 million new BEVs + PHEVs total will be sold
- There are two years where sales declined versus the previous year: 2015 & 2019 (most likely)
- Median YOY growth was 33%
- The Tesla Model 3 will account for an estimated 42% of US EV sales for 2018 to 2019 sales.
US EV Sales Numbers: IHS Markit Versus InsideEVs
As long-time subscribers know, I focus a lot of my analysis and writing on US EV sales trends. Key to analyzing these trends and forecasting future EV sales is of course having reliable and consistent sources of sales data. For the past three years I have been using data from both IHS Market (free via Auto Alliance site) and the InsideEVs Sales Scorecard.
A challenge, however, is that these two sources have reported different sales numbers the past few years - making it challenging to base a forecast on these inconsistent numbers. I sharing my latest forecast for 2020 using InsideEVs data, but may actually report two separate forecasts in the future. Stay tuned ...
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