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For the week of Jan. 17-24

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

Jan. 17/ Xi to visit Myanmar: Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit Myanmar on Friday after a period of problematic relations between the bordering countries.

• What's happened so far: This will be the first time a sitting Chinese leader has visited the country in 19 years, despite a relationship dating back thousands of years. Things began to fray in the early 2010s following Myanmar’s embrace of other countries, such as the United States and Japan. Though China did offer support in 2016, when Myanmar began the ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims, The countries are now set to form a new economic alliance using Xi’s “Belt and Road” scheme involving dozens of projects including a new railway, seaport and dam.
• The impact: This visit and planned economic alliance is seen as a way for China to inexorably link itself to Myanmar, their largest trade partner. It also being categorized as a way for China to ensure Myanmar doesn’t embrace any of its rivals. In Myanmar, this is seen as a chance for the country to diversify its economy and gain the backing of a powerful country that sits on the UN Security Council.

Jan. 18/ Women’s March: Thousands of protesters are expected to take to the streets of Washington, D.C., on Saturday for the fourth annual Women’s March.

• What's happened so far: The first Women’s March, which took place after President Donald Trump’s 2017 inauguration, is widely considered the largest single-day protest in U.S. history, with millions participating in sister marches across the country and internationally. In recent years, however, the legacy has been marred by accusations of financial mismanagement and anti-semitism among the organizers, leading numerous celebrities and high-profile activists to distance themselves.
• The impact: Numbers in Washington will likely significantly dwindle this year, with organizers expecting just 10,000 protesters, compared to the almost 500,000 in 2017. Turnout could be further affected by inclement weather forecasted to hit D.C. over the weekend. Speeches have been shelved this year in favor of a performance of the feminist anthem “A Rapist in your Path” by the Chilean protest group Las Tesis, which will take place outside the White House, the midpoint of the march.

Jan. 19/ Libya peace talks: On Sunday, Libya’s UN-recognized government is set to meet in Berlin with Khalifa Haftar, a retired general that has been waging a military offensive aimed at overthrowing it for almost a year.

• What's happened so far: Libya’s civil war has claimed the lives of thousands of people (members’ link), while displacing hundreds of thousands. At the heart of the conflict are local and regional jockeying for the nation’s resources and political loyalty. While the United Nations and regional influencers such as Turkey and Qatar back the central government, which controls parts of western Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have backed Haftar, who controls parts of the east.
• The impact: The peace talks follow a tentative ceasefire declared around Tripoli by Turkey and Russia, who back the central government and Haftar, respectively. The agreement came as the conflict started posing a real threat to oil production and drew a number of foreign fighters, in addition to a Turkish military deployment that drew sharp criticism and muscle-flexing military exercises from Egypt. It’s still much too early to tell whether the negotiations, called for by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will push both sides to a more permanent settlement.

Jan. 20/ Possible teachers' strike in Ontario: Elementary teachers in Canada's largest province could walk off the job as soon as Monday for rotating strikes, unless significant progress is made in contract talks, as a long-running standoff between teachers' unions and the government of Ontario drags on. 

• What's happened so far: Union members ramped up work-to-rule actions on Monday, opting not to participate in field trips or supervise extra-curricular activities. Meanwhile, teachers in the province's English Catholic system will hold a one-day strike on Jan. 21, after launching their own work-to-rule campaign earlier this month. Public high school teachers have held several one-day walkouts of their own in recent months, following months of negotiations.
• The impact: Teachers have taken issue with government plans to boost class sizes and the introduction of mandatory e-learning courses in high schools, while the government says teacher compensation is at the heart of their dispute.

Jan. 20/ Gun control rallies in Virginia.: Gun rights activists are planning to descend on the Virginia State Capitol in Richmond on Monday to protest gun control legislation being considered by the legislature.

• What's happened so far: Democrats cemented control of state Congress and governor's mansion last November for the first time in 25 years. Earlier this week, a Senate committee killed a bill that would have expanded the definition of "assault firearms" and outlawed the sale of magazines with a capacity of more than 10 rounds, while forwarding measures regarding mandatory background checks, red flag laws and handgun purchase limits. Dozens of municipalities across the state have passed "second amendment sanctuary" resolutions, saying they'll refuse to enforce any new gun measures.
• The impact: Along with pro-gun groups, the legislation has drawn the ire of out-of-state militias expected to take part in next week's rallies, raising concerns from some of potential violence. Virginia's governor has declared a "state of emergency" ahead of the event, banning weapons from the Capitol grounds. Organizers have told the state to prepare for anywhere from 50,000 to 100,000 to attend, though police say there's no indication that many will take part.

Jan. 21/ World Economic Forum: Thousands of business and political leaders, including President Trump and Chancellor Merkel, will meet in Davos, Switzerland, starting Tuesday for the annual World Economic Forum.

• What's happened so far: The World Economic Forum has been meeting for several decades under the guise of different themes. This year’s theme is “Stakeholders for a cohesive and sustainable world.” The organization has stressed the importance of fighting climate change, which they said is doing harm to “our ecology and economy.” 
• The impact: Climate change activist Greta Thunberg will be speaking at the meeting. In an opinion piece published this month, Thunberg says she’ll be urging world leaders to immediately abandon fossil fuels. This year’s forum may provide an opportunity for world leaders to announce new action on climate change.

Jan. 21/ Portuguese police forces strike: The national civil preventive police force (PSP) and the national republican guard (GNR) have announced plans to strike this Tuesday across all Portuguese airports.

• What's happened so far: Back in November, approximately 13,000 police officers took part in demonstrations across the country, demanding better working conditions and pay. After failed talks with the government, trade unionists said a new demonstration would take place this month, and potentially every month after, until their demands are met.
• The impact: PSP and GNR forces will occupy all airports across Portugal, including in the Madeira and Azores islands. They also plan to hold protests during the Final Four football tournament in Braga and outside the Finance Ministry in Lisbon. Meanwhile, the Interior Ministry has set dates to discuss their demands. Last week, a meeting was held to discuss pay, and new meetings will be held over the next two months to discuss new safety equipment legislation and health and safety concerns.

Jan. 21/ Trump impeachment trial begins: On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to send the articles of impeachment against Trump to the Senate to start a trial, the opening statements of which expected to begin Tuesday.

• What's happened so far: Two articles, one covering abuse of power and the other obstruction of Congress, passed the House in December. Both the prosecution and the defense will get the chance to speak in the Senate next week before witnesses are called. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has named a team of impeachment managers, who will argue as the prosecution. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will preside over the trial.
• The impact: It’s up to the Senate to set the trial’s rules and call witnesses, both of which are expected to be hotly debated. Some potential witnesses, such as former national security adviser John Bolton, are expected to give explosive testimony. It takes two-thirds of the Senate to impeach the president and remove him from office. Democrats lack a majority in the upper chamber, so the chances of removal are slim.

What else matters:

Eruption of Taal Volcano: There is an imminent risk that a hazardous, explosive eruption will occur at Taal Volcano, about 100 km south of Manila in the Philippines, after it first erupted on Sunday. The eruption led to a “state of calamity” in the entire Batangas region. Almost half a million people live within the evacuation zone surrounding Taal and thousands of people have left their homes. Flights at Manila’s international airport were temporarily halted Sunday as ash fell as far north as Quezon City.

• Watch for: The Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology says multiple, intense volcanic earthquakes have rocked the area since the initial eruption, indicating magmatic intrusion, which could lead to further eruptions. More than 25 million people live within 100 km of the volcano, an area that could be majorly contaminated by ash fall if a larger eruption happens.

Russia leadership shuffle: Following a series of shock announcements Wednesday, Russia’s political structure is facing a major shake-up after remaining mostly unchanged for two decades. President Vladimir Putin proposed constitutional changes that would allow him to hold onto power whether or not he steps down in 2024. Hours later, Prime Minister and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev and his government resigned. Putin has already nominated a replacement PM: Mikhail Mishustin, head of the federal tax service. Parliament approved his appointment on Thursday. 

• Watch for: Putin’s reshuffle comes amid rampant speculation about his power hold. While Putin framed the proposed changes, which include shifting power from the president to parliament, as ways to improve democracy, many see it as a chance for him to continue leading the country when his term ends in four years. It’s quite possible the announcements will lead to protests like the ones seen this summer, when opposition candidates were barred from registering in regional elections.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Jan. 16: Uzbekistan Senate elections; protests in France

Jan. 17: President Xi to visit Myanmar

Jan. 18: Women’s March; SpaceX tests rocket for critical Crew Dragon in-flight abort launch

Jan. 19: Germany summit on Libya peace plan

Jan. 20: Teachers in Ontario could begin strikes; Gun control rallies in Richmond, Va.

Jan. 21: World Economic Forum; Thai court rules on opposition dissolution; Protests at all Portuguese airports; opening statements in Trump impeachment trial expected

Jan. 22: India sets executions for four men convicted In New Delhi bus rape

Jan. 23: Michelle Carter expected to be released from prison; Adria Airways auction; ICJ to deliver verdict on provisional measures against Myanmar requested by Gambia

Jan. 24: French PM plans to present pension reform bill

Jan. 25: Lunar New Year

Jan. 26: Peru legislative elections; Regional election in Italy's Emilia-Romagna; Michael Flynn sentencing

Jan. 28: Trump rally in Wildwood, N.J.

Jan. 31: Britain to leave EU

Feb. 3: Iowa caucus

Feb. 4: U.S. State of the Union

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