Shipping is part of the invisible infrastructure that powers our everyday lives. We rely on the global shipping industry: roughly 80% of the goods we consume are transported on ships. Most of the time the shipping industry operates as planned. But the Covid-19 coronavirus has revealed how brittle shipping can be in the wake of a sudden black swan event. China is home to 7 of the 10 largest and busiest container ports in the world, and the outbreak has endangered our global supply chains. Ports are either closed down entirely or ships must first sit in quarantine, which has made it impossible to load or discharge goods: car parts, medical supplies, phones and consumer gadgets, and ingredients. If containers aren't being emptied, there's no room to load anything new. Global trade is slowing, and this will cause reverberations for months -- possibly years -- to come.

It will take public health officials several months to contain Covid-19. By that point, the shipping industry could face another big disruptor: environmental regulation. The EU commission's new president, Ursula von der Leyen, has made curbing maritime emissions a top priority. Oil tankers, container ships and cruise ships now guzzle huge amounts of fuel that is full of sulfur, a chemical that produces poisonous gases and harmful particles. The maritime industry contributes to 2.5% of all greenhouse gases and is linked to 14 million childhood asthma cases and 403,000 premature deaths among people with cardiac and lung disease. 

Why should you care?  
Shipping may be forced to clean up its act this year. Today’s ocean-going vessels are increasingly embracing novel new technologies, thanks to sweeping environmental regulation that went into effect in January. The United Nations International Maritime Organization, or IMO, will require vessels use fuels that contain no more than 0.5 percent sulfur, down from today’s limit of 3.5%. 

Can sustainable tech really clean up a notorious industry? Transport and the Environment, a Belgian NGO, argues that even with the new rules, the shipping industry will continue to pollute on massive levels. The group reports that even at the 0.5% cap, the industry’s emissions will still be 100 times worse than all of Europe’s 260 million passenger vehicles. Enforcement, too, will undoubtedly fall on countries like Liberia and Panama, where an increasing number of vessels are registered—and that tend to have lax oversight.

Emerging Trend: Sustainable Shipping

Examples: Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, announced a plan to be carbon neutral by 2050 and has put $1 billion into new technologies for fuel efficiency and sustainability for its 700 ships. Last year, the IMO adopted a plan to curb carbon emissions by 50% by 2050. We are tracking a host of new technologies: 

• London-based Silverstream Technologies is seeing swift demand for its air lubrication technology that creates a carpet of microscopic air bubbles between the vessel and water. The system uses nine steel boxes welded in the shape of ‘V’ on the surface of each ship and air compressors inside the vessels. Together, the tech reduces drag in the water and improves fuel efficiency by 5%—or an estimated $1 million savings per ship each year. Companies such as Carnival Cruise Line, Maersk and Royal Dutch Shell installed the technology. Silverstream expects to add its bubble technology on 200 to 300 new ships in the next five years, including a dozen Grimaldi Group cargo ships.

• Finland startup Norsepower makes "rotor sails," which are spinning columns that operate like automated, more powerful wind sails and promise to cut fuel consumption 5-20%. Viking Line and hybrid ferry operator Scandlines have already installed them.

• In Canada, Corvus Energy makes marine-grade lithium ion batteries that can withstand rough sea conditions. Its batteries now power 55% of the world’s 300 or so electric or hybrid vessels around the globe—from ferries, freighters, and cruise ships, to submarines, tug boats, and the vessels that serve offshore oil and gas rigs. The batteries are used in half of the world’s 300 electric and hybrid ships.

• Dutch company Port Liner, meanwhile, makes electric barges dubbed “Tesla ships” that now operate in Amsterdam and on the coast of Belgium. In addition, new hybrid boats, powered by solar energy, promise to reduce a craft’s weight, cut noise and cut emissions. 

What’s Next: As electric vehicles become more commonplace in other transportation arenas, including cars, trucking, aircraft and even scooters, we’ll see more electric vehicles that are fully automated. Electric ships that don't require people could not only be safer and solve labor shortages, they could be better for the environment. The IMO this year will lay the legal foundation for maritime autonomous surface ships.

Strategic Impact: Emerging technology and new regulations in the shipping industry impact our economies, our ability to conduct business, and the products we buy. 

Action Meter: Informs Strategy

Scenarios for the year 2025

The GREEN Chain
Near-future optimistic: Investments in new technology drives a new sector of eco-commerce. Building carbon-neutral ships and ports and employing collaborative robots result in an environmentally-friendly, cost-efficient supply chains. This gives rise to a new GREEN Chain: Global Redemptive Energy for Environmental Navigation. This certification program would designate environmentally-friendly supply chains, and the benefits to companies would include lower operating costs, less waste, reduced liability and tax incentives.

Small Improvements Lead to More Emissions
Near-future pessimistic: Innovations in sustainable shipping provide only incremental improvements. Widespread changes only go as far as regulation requires. Progress winds up being pendular: governments require greener maritime regulations, but subsequent administrations relax restrictions. Eventually, emissions rise again sharply. Without long-term planning or oversight, this results in more harmful pollution, so the net effect is worse than where we started in the year 2020.

2020 Tech Trend Report - Available Next Week!

• 406 Tech Trends, which is up 28.8% from last year. We're not trying to overwhelm you! A broad view of tech trends is the best way to see around corners and spot emerging disruption. This is our most expansive and robust report yet, and if you look for connections between your industry and trends in other fields, it will guide your strategic thinking throughout the year.
• 30 trend sections: We're covering several new areas like synthetic media, vices, algorithmic scoring, supply chain and logistics, synthetic biology, quantum and edge computing, big tech's move into healthcare and medicine...in addition to all the usual trend areas like AI, blockchain, home automation, AgTech and the global supply of food, geopolitics, climate change, robotics, space, cryptocurrencies, autonomous vehicles, AR/ VR/ MR and more. 
• 27 future scenarios on a wide array of topics.
• 11 strategic guidance mini-reports for senior decision-makers.
• 6 strategic foresight toolkits and frameworks to use with our trend analysis.
• 9 tech and science primers to help you get smart fast.
• A calendar for 2020 to help you plan your strategy.
• Expert interviews on the future of connected glasses and the future of sextech.
• A list of weak signals for the next decade.

New Research Available

For workshops, research collaborations and speaking requests, visit the Future Today Institute website.

FTI In The News 

Business Insider: A top expert on disruption explains how Amazon, Google, and Apple will 'completely dismantle' the healthcare industry — and says the wheels are already in motion. Read here. 

Fast Company: Privacy in 2034: A corporation owns your DNA (and maybe your body). Read here.

The Financial Times: Is voice tech set to change the way we work? Read here. 

The New York Times: Prime Mover: How Amazon Wove Itself Into the Life of an American City.  Read here.

Axios: Retailers are guzzling data just like tech giants. Read here.