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Today's Topics
Happy Friday everyone, today we explore:
- The official temperature data for 2019 is in - was it another hot year?
- It's been over a decade since the global financial crisis, which investment bank has no other been able to catch?
- Just how much of a tumble has Aussie PM Scott Morrison taken in the polls over the bushfires?
The numbers behind the numbers:
3 charts, 653 words, 3 mins 50 seconds to read.
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According to the latest data from NASA, 2019 was officially the second hottest year on record, with temperatures on average +0.98°C warmer than they were in the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).
We've visualised this temperature data a few times before so we'll keep this short and sweet, but we've never lined up all the years from coldest to warmest before - and the results are pretty shocking. Of the 10 warmest years on record, 7 of them happened in the last decade (2010-19), and the 10 coldest years recorded were all before 1917.
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This week JPMorgan reported its annual earnings, which saw them print a whopping $36.4bn of net income for 2019. That's the largest profit number any bank has ever reported, and it underlines why JPMorgan's share price has left the other major investment banks in the dust since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.
Why is JPM doing so well?
Remember "too big to fail" - where the big banks were (for the most part) seen as too entrenched in the wider economy to be allowed to go bankrupt? Well, JPM epitomises that notion because not only does it play in the usual investment banking business of advising companies, raising capital for them and helping people to invest in them - but it also does a lot of more mundane stuff like bank accounts and credit cards.
In fact, almost 50% of JPM's revenue comes from doing some of the more "boring" stuff. That's allowed JPM to have a much smoother ride in the last decade, because the consumer side of the business has been able to pick up the slack when the investment banking business has been more volatile.
That stability - and cheap source of capital - has become the envy of the other big banks. Goldman Sachs is making a big push into consumer deposits and savings with its Marcus brand. But it's not easy playing catch up - as Jeremy Irons said in the brilliant film Margin Call: "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat". JPM was certainly first.
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In July 2019 Scott Morrison, the Australian Prime Minister, was seen by most as doing a decent enough job. According to data from The Australian Newspoll, his net satisfaction rating was +15%.
Then came the bushfire crisis that burned millions of acres of land, killed over a billion animals and made headlines all over the world. His handling of that crisis has not been well received - and it's seen his polling numbers get absolutely crushed.
His government's refusal to concede any sort of link between climate change and the fires, as well as a general lack of readiness for the bushfire season by not meeting with experts, have both been been criticised. That feeling of animosity is best summed up by his visit to a town in New South Wales that had been affected by the fires, where he was heckled and told to "p*** off".
Mercifully, there has been some rain recently in Australia, which has already put out 32 bushfires. Rain might put out the immediate bushfire problems, but for Scott Morrison the work starts now as he begins to try and win back the country.
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Data Snacks
1) The Disney+ launch has been absolutely stellar - with almost 41m downloads for the Disney+ app already.
2) Bernie Sanders will be loving the most recent polls, which have him tied with Biden on roughly 20% support, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos national poll.
3) The Iranian missile strikes that targeted US bases in Iraq last week have been revealed to have injured 11 US service members, with several being treated for concussions.
4) Alphabet has become the latest company to cross over the $1 trillion valuation.
5) We ran a poll on our Instagram about the Big Ben Brexit Bongs, with 80% of those answering that it was a "total waste" of £500k ($650k).
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We're all outta charts for now - see you next Wednesday.
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