Even though this project was specifically a NSW grant process, it is interesting to analyse what information needs to be addressed to give a realistic view on the future success of a green fields school, or a major expansion.
You may remember the film “Field of Dreams”, about an Iowa corn farmer who hears a voice telling him: "If you build it, they will come." He interprets this as an instruction to build a baseball diamond in his fields. After he does, Shoeless Joe Jackson and other dead baseball players emerge from the cornfields to play ball.
Well, building new schools is not as simple as the film portrays, and in the recent funding round, it was necessary to provide a demographic analysis to substantiate available enrolments will justify the building or expansion of the school.
The instructions included that you should be in high growth areas and areas where the demographic profile of the locations shows support for demand for independent schools and how this is applicable to enrolment growth for your school.
Whilst this can be interpreted in a few ways, the basics are about future enrolment demands, and a lack of supply of enough independent places in the future.
Whether applying for grants, or just thinking about future enrolments, these issues need to be addressed. Fortunately the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released in October 2019 their future population projections from 2017 (Census + 1 year) to 2032, and gave us access to this data in 5 year increments.
The general thoughts in relation to looking for student populations are that you need to use the increments 5 – 9, 10 – 14 and 15 – 19 years of age. This way you can start with current population estimates and look at how this grows, or in some areas reduces, over the next 12 years. Areas of high growth are traditionally the outer growth corridors.
It is interesting that we have areas forecasting a reduction in student numbers as well, and these are normally areas developed 20 – 30 years ago, where the nuclear family began (Mum, Dad and the kids), the kids grew up and have left home, and the parents are now empty nesters. This will remain until a new generation of people buy the houses, and the demographic starts to spread out, and not be such a concentrated age group. Examples of this are areas like Mill Park and Rowville in Melbourne and Menai and Emu Plains in Sydney.
If your school is struggling for enrolments, or planning a major growth strategy, you need to understand the demographics of your surrounding areas, and what you can expect in the future.
If you would like more information, please contact Peter Buckingham.
LinkedIn for Students and Graduates
Are you interested in making sure that your students connect with one another both at school and after school? (How are you tracking your alumni? They are one of your best sources of future enrolment referrals)
Are you aware of how important it is to start building a network from today? (There is no such thing as job security)
Did you know that the best time for students to create and then engage on LinkedIn is at the beginning of Year 11? (Well before the pressure of Year 12 exams and the end of school)
I have been fortunate to provide LinkedIn presentations to a variety of schools across Australia and at various conferences (Educate Plus, Catholic Development Network, National Association of Graduate Careers Advisory Services (NAGCAS), Career Development Association of Australia etc).
