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Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Feb. 7-14

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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Protesters gather in San Cristóbal, Venezuela, to demonstrate against Nicolás Maduro's government in February 2019. (Photo: Valentin Guerrero / Flickr)

A look ahead:

Feb. 7/ Lavrov in Venezuela: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will arrive in Venezuela on Friday for talks with President Nicolás Maduro and other government leaders on steps to "counteract illegal unilateral sanctions" imposed on the country. 

  • What's happened so far: Issues regarding energy, mining, transport, agriculture and defense are reportedly on the docket, as Lavrov wraps up a Latin American tour that also includes stops in Cuba and Mexico. His trip comes on the heels of a new round of U.S. sanctions on seven Venezuelan politicians, following an effort by Maduro backers to wrest control of the National Assembly
  • The impact: Lavrov's visit is meant to serve as a show of support for the Maduro government, in the face of more than 50 countries that recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country's leader. 

Feb. 8/ Ireland election: Ireland goes to the polls Saturday as the ruling center-right Fine Gael party seeks to secure a third term in government amid increasing support for a change.

Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar speaks at a Project Ireland 2040 event in June 2018.
(Photo: Merrion Street / Flickr)

Feb. 8/ New Delhi election: India’s capital, with a population of more than 20 million people, will hold a vote for its 70 legislative seats Saturday. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party is facing competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian National Congress.

  • What's happened so far: The vote will take place against the background of two controversial decisions by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government: the enactment of a new citizenship law, criticized as biased against the nation’s Muslim population, and canceling the semi-autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, the territory under dispute with neighbor Pakistan.
  • The impact: Modi is looking for a good showing, if not a win, to cement his mandate and drive forward more political and economic reforms in the face of increasing opposition. Still, recent polls show AAP has a solid lead among local voters, which would give the party five more years to continue its role as a centrist player in Indian politics. Results are expected to be announced on Feb. 11.

Feb. 9/ Legislative elections in Cameroon: Voters will head to the polls in Cameroon on Sunday for both legislative and local elections, despite a rash of violence and threats from separatist rebels to disrupt the polls. 

Feb. 9/ Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan: Azerbaijanis will vote Sunday to elect a new legislature, in a move designed to give the country’s president even more power.

  • What's happened so far: Since becoming president in 2003, Ilham Aliyev has taken several steps to cement his position as leader. In 2009, he scrapped a two-year presidential term limit. Then in 2016, he extended the presidential term to seven years from five. He also appointed his wife as vice president. In December, the nation’s lawmakers asked Aliyev to dissolve Parliament and call for a snap election in February, nine months before the scheduled election.
  • The impact: Opposition groups have slammed the snap election, saying it will be “fully engineered” and designed to repress participation. Watchdog groups say Azerbaijan is largely corrupt and “formal political opposition is weak” after years of persecution. The results of the election will likely help Aliyev put an even tighter stranglehold on power in the oil-rich country. It could also spark civilian protests.
A map of the coronavirus outbreak across China created by Johns Hopkins University. 

Feb. 9/ Travel, business begins to resume amid coronavirus outbreak:  Air travel to and from China remains in flux, as some airlines, like Australia’s Qantas, are suspending mainland China service starting Sunday while others, like Air France, are set to resume flying after the weekend.

  • What's happened so far: On Wednesday, deaths from the coronavirus totaled more than 500 worldwide, while more than 28,000 cases of the disease have been recorded. Most major cities in China are effectively closed off — economically and physically — from the rest of the world. Businesses in most of China’s provinces, municipalities and other regions are shut down until Monday. Governments around the world have issued travel restrictions and advisories, including quarantines, making travel planning tricky. 
  • The impact: It remains to be seen, however, how many will actually be able to pick up where they left off. For example, Taiwan’s Foxconn, which operates multiple factories in China, has told Bloomberg it is aiming to resume full China production by Monday. Meanwhile Reuters, citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter, is reporting that it could take Foxconn “one to two weeks from then to resume full production.” What’s certain is that investors will be watching closely.

Feb. 11/ New Hampshire primary: Democrats and Republicans will vote in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday as candidates vie for a share of delegates ahead of their national conventions.

A desert locust swarm is seen in Kitui County, Kenya. (Photo: ©FAO / Sven Torfinn)

What else matters:

Locust swarms: A massive infestation of desert locust is threatening crops in the Horn of Africa, according to a recent report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The situation, which the FAO is calling “extremely serious,” has prompted Somalia to declare a national emergency. Meanwhile, farmers in Kenya are already seeing heavy impacts on their crops. Even a small swarm can eat as much food in a day as 2,500 people.

  • Watch for: Millions of dollars will need to be mobilized quickly to help control the outbreak threatening the food security of people in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, according to the UN. The region's Intergovernmental Authority on Development is recommending, among other things, an immediate upscaling of aerial control operations and aggressive targeted spraying. At the same time, the FAO is warning of a potential situation on the coasts of the Red Sea, where an increase in locust is being seen in Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

New Iraqi prime minister: On Saturday, Iraq appointed former communications minister and lawmaker Mohammed Allawi to form a new government, months after violent protests demanding change broke out. The move has yet to calm tensions, as demonstrations against the decision continue in several cities, including the Baghdad.

Syria conflict: A Syrian government forces' campaign to liberate the final rebel-held strongholds in the country’s Idlib region has intensified in recent days. Although President Bashar al-Assad’s soldiers, backed by militias and reinforced by Russian firepower, have retook several large towns from opposition forces, the offensive has also angered Turkey by forcing refugees towards its border. According to the UN, some 520,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of December.

  • Watch for: As Syria and Turkey continue to trade airstrikes, Russia’s support of Assad’s offensive creates potential conflict with its ally Turkey. Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged to resolve the dispute with Russia amicably, Ankara’s position may harden if Moscow continues to support attacks on its forces. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is likely to deteriorate further. WHO says more than 50 healthcare facilities have suspended services in northwest Syria due to ongoing attacks and other humanitarian organizations may follow suit.

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Feb. 7: Lavrov visits Venezuela; eighth Democratic presidential debate

Feb. 8: Ireland general election; New Delhi election; Sri Lanka PM Rajapaksa visits India

Feb. 9: Legislative elections in Cameroon; parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan; some airlines expected to begin travel to China; 92nd Academy Awards

Feb. 11: New Hampshire primary

Feb. 15: Phase one U.S.-China trade deal takes effect

Feb. 16: Legislative elections in Guinea

Feb. 17: EU hosts donors' conference for Albania

Feb. 18: Greek civil servants strike against pension bill

Feb. 19: Ninth Democratic presidential debate

Feb. 20: Roger Stone's sentencing

Feb. 21: Iranian legislative elections

Feb. 22: Nevada Democratic caucus; Togo presidential election


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