Trump's Plan - Regional Reactions & Initial Observations
President Trump presented his plan to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Attendees included Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, senior US officials, ambassadors of Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates.
What are the Initial Responses in the Middle East?
One camp - the Palestinians, Hezbollah, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Tunisia - oppose.
A second camp - including Gulf Monarchies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates), Jordan, and Egypt - support.
Israeli public opinion seems to generally support the plan. Israeli Arabs, the Israeli left, the Israeli far-right parties oppose.
The Responses Indicate two Major Aspects of the Geopolitical Reality of the Middle East
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Inside The Middle East
Zoom-In: The Red Sea
There are two recent significant developments to follow related to the Red Sea.
Council of Red Sea Shore and Gulf of Aden Countries On January 8, 2020, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, overlooking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, eight Arab countries signed a treaty to establish a new organization called the “Council of Red Sea Shore and Gulf of Aden Countries.” The eight members are Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Yemen, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
Egypt Expands Military Presence on the Red Sea On January 15, 2020, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated one of the largest military bases in the Middle East called Berenice (Barnis). It is one of three identical navy bases currently being built in Egypt. When each project is completed, Egypt will have seven maritime military installations.
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The Eastern Mediterranean: The Civil War in Libya & Turkish-Egyptian Tensions Deepen
The Civil War in Libya began in 2011 following the ousting of Libyan Dictator, Muammar al-Gaddafi.
Since then, various Libyan factors have been fighting for power and control. Since 2015, Libya has been divided between two competing governments. Each government claims it is the true representative of the Libyan people, and each government has its own parliament, ministers, militias, and military forces.
The Civil War has also become a platform for a regional power struggle which includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (as well as the US & Russia) on one side and Qatar and Turkey on the other.
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Iranian Retaliation:
A Prelude to A Diplomatic Process?
Some in the West argue the killing of Soleimani boosts instability and is leading to an escalation. Others even describe it as “war crimes.”
The elimination of Soleimani is not the reason for the escalation, but rather the result of years of a bloody escalation for which Soleimani was personally responsible
Dr. Abdel Aziz Abu Hamad Aluwaisheg, @abuhamad1, the Assistant Secretary-General for Foreign Affairs at the Gulf Cooperation Council, writes in his article “Will the Killing of Soleimani Increases the Odds for Negotiations with Iran?"
Saudi columnist, Mashari Al-Thydi (@MAlthaydy) writes in his article “How Can Any Reasonable Mind Contest the Killing of Soleimani?”
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