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Welcome to the Safeture newsletter. This time a China expert shares her analysis on current situation. We are introducing our unique Corona exposure tracker. Scroll down to read.
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China analyst shares her view of the current COVID-19 outbreak
Kristina Sandklef is an independent China analyst with a degree in China studies, political science, and economics from Lund University. She has worked at Ericsson and with the Swedish Armed Forces, as well as a macro economist focusing on China at the asset fund manager East Capital. Now she works as a Senior advisor at Consilio International focusing on security and is a frequent commentator on Swedish media.
The main difficulties with predicting the development of the new Coronavirus, COVID-19, are the facts that we do not yet know how contagious or how deadly it is. These factors most likely delayed the containment of the virus when the outbreak started in Wuhan in December 2019. As science is not yet sure how to cure it and there is no vaccine, the best way for travelers to handle the situation is to temporarily avoid China, South Korea, northern Italy, Iran, and other countries that have been hit.
Expect more countries to be hit within the next couple of weeks as people have travelled to areas where nobody knew that there was a COVID-19 outbreak, like northern Italy, Iran or places not yet aware.
It will be very hard to contain the spread of virus globally, due to global mobility, and the fact that several countries cannot trace patient zero, i.e., the first person that spread the virus there, which has made containment close to impossible. A country to watch closely is Iran, where the number of official deaths does not match the number of infected, and statistics appear to be inaccurate.
"...This virus is not influenza. We are in unchartered territory.”
What we know for sure is that the statistics on COVID-19 coming from China are not correct. It was hard to diagnose the virus initially, due to lack of test kits and accuracy of test methods. Many people have been diagnosed with pneumonia. Some people, especially younger adults and children, appear not to fall ill, whereas others, older people and people with chronic diseases get very ill.
As the Wuhan statistics most likely are not totally correct, it is dangerous to make strict conclusions of how the virus mutates, spreads, and kills. To quote the WHO director general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on March 2nd: “(…) this a unique virus with unique features. This virus is not influenza. We are in unchartered territory.”
For example, some authorities claim that children appear to not spread the virus, based on a WHO report on the Wuhan sample. It is important to take into account that the Wuhan children were on winter holidays on January 15th, before the big outbreak. Chinese children are supposed to study at home even during holidays.
As most families only have one child, the single child is treasured as a jewel. Wuhan children have most likely been in isolation before the general public went into lockdown in the area, maybe even before going on holidays. It is impossible to say much about how contagious children are based on the Wuhan sample.
In Hokkaido Japan, where most of the infections have occurred, the authorities are now suspecting that young Chinese ski tourists are the source. These young people might have had a mild version of COVID-19 and unwittingly spread the virus to older Japanese people that have fallen ill.
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The Chinese government has been doing its best to handle the situation. But the inherent secrecy of the party state together with lack of freedom of speech have worsened the outbreak in Hubei. Such as not reporting all facts in the early stage and harassing the first whistleblowers instead of seeing them as early warning signals of a crisis. It is a huge challenge for the Xi Jinping administration to handle the situation.
Already several local party cadres and bureaucrats have lost their jobs as they have mishandled the outbreak. Currently, the lockdown of Wuhan and Hubei appears to continue, whereas people are returning to work in other less affected areas in China.
"It is impossible to forecast if the COVID-19 outbreak will be contained in China or globally."
Many Chinese people are working from home instead of commuting to the office, but for migrant workers in factories it is harder to get to work as some people might be stranded in their home villages after their Chinese New Year Holiday. Currently everyone should be in quarantine for two weeks after returning to their place of residence before going back to work.
The transport network is not working as normal in China. Many Western airlines have cancelled their flights to mainland China until end of March. Manufacturing and supply chains will be severely hit by the lock down, as will the global economy due to the dependence on China in global supply chains. For the Communist Party, it is important to start economic activity again as it has promised to double GDP between 2010 and 2020, as there is only one year left.
It is impossible to forecast if the COVID-19 outbreak will be contained in China or globally. Signs to look out for in China are when schools open again (now everybody is studying at home). A date is set for when the National People’s Congress will take place, and Xi Jinping will visit Wuhan.
Given that we still do not know the degree of contagiousness and that the disease is now spreading in new countries, the world should be prepared for the outbreak to continue for a while. There have already been reports of a Chinese tourist returning to China from northern Italy with the virus. COVID-19 is much more contagious than SARS, and far more people have fallen ill from it. The Chinese are more international than they were during SARS, which started in November 2002 and was contained by July 2003.
The economic consequences will be tough. It show us how dependent western countries are on China for our supply chains, including essentials like generic pharmaceuticals and components for the auto industry.
Wuhan is a hub for auto industry. Apple has already issued a profit warning. The outbreak will also show how China will prioritize its citizens’ access to products before exporting them.
By Kristina Sandklef
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Unique Coronavirus exposure tracker
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Safeture launches a Coronavirus exposure tracker that correlates each employee’s travel patterns with the latest Covid-19 reported cases in real time.
The tool tracks daily Corona exposure into 5,000 global subregions and checks with your employee’s historical, current, and future locations using both real-time GPS tracking and travel booking data.
The tool enables Security, HR, and Risk Management to get daily reports on Corona risk exposure of each employee, based on each employee’s unique travel pattern. This is a vital tool to mitigate and manage the Coronavirus spread within a company in case the virus becomes pandemic.
Since the outbreak, many companies have tried to identify which employees may have been at risk of contagion when traveling in vulnerable areas, an often difficult and time-consuming job, especially in global organizations.
With this new unique tool, anyone who uses the Safeture security platform can quickly gain control over the situation and directly contact people at risk, make an assessment of the necessary actions or cancel the trip.
Read more here
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From around the world:
Women unite in global strikes and rallies for International Women’s Day on 8 March. Get updated on what is happening this month. Read our new Preview of the month.
March
1 Commemorative events in South Korea. Parliamentary elections in Tajikistan. Parliamentary elections in Guinea
2 Legislative election in Israel. Presidential election in Guyana
3 Super Tuesday for primary elections and caucuses in the United States
8 International Women’s Day marches globally
9-10 Holi Festival in India
15 Start of Formula 1 2020 Season in Melbourne, Australia
17 St Patrick’s Day in Ireland
19 Presidential election in Vanuatu
20 Nowruz (Persian New Year) celebrations in Iran and parts of Middle East, South Asia
29 First round of legislative elections in Mali
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