Viral outbreaks are always with us. Fortunately, so are extremely clever scientists. Let’s take a Deep Dive.
😷 Right now everyone is panicking about 2019-nCov, the novel strain of the coronavirus that is gradually spreading around the world after it first emerged in Wuhan, China. But while the virus is particularly infectious, it’s not officially a pandemic yet—at least not at the time of hitting send on this email—and infectious diseases have the potential to be far more virulent and life threatening.
🤧 Sars, Mers, H1N1, H5N1, Ebola, Zika: there seems to be a new candidate for a humanity threatening infection every year. But there have been pandemics throughout history—see the Timeline, below—many of them far more devastating than anything we’ve faced this century.
🦇 The uniquely globalised nature of the modern world means that diseases now have the capacity to spread faster than ever before; plus deforestation and factory farming raise the chances of nasty infections jumping the species barrier from animal to human. Another reason there seem to be more of them these days is that we’re getting better at detecting them.
💉 We’ve beaten pandemics before and we can do so again, including the outbreaks mentioned above. The most effective ways of doing so involve early identification, swift development of appropriate diagnostics, absolute transparency in reporting cases, interaction and information sharing between international public health experts and authorities, and appropriate isolation and quarantining.
QUOTABLE
“Getting ready for a global pandemic is every bit as important as nuclear deterrence and avoiding a climate catastrophe.”
—Bill Gates
BY THE NUMBERS
50 million plus
The Black Death plague outbreak of the 14th century was probably the worst pandemic in history, killing at least 50 million people and possibly as many as 200 million, including between 30 and 60 percent of Europe’s entire population, with the global population taking about 200 years to return to previous levels. The disease probably spread to Europe along the Silk Road from China.
2007
The confusingly named "2005 International Health Regulations" were introduced into international law in 2007, detailing best practice in preventing the international spread of a disease. There have been challenges implementing them, though, including countries’ ability to identify outbreaks; the effects of trade and travel restrictions, which are sometimes unnecessary and can hamper aid efforts; and the obvious disincentive for countries to report outbreaks promptly.
32 days
During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, vaccines were developed and made available within 32 days of the WHO declaring a public health emergency of international concern.
50%
The stock prices of small to medium sized drug companies Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Moderna and Novavax have risen by as much as 50 percent as a result of 2019-nCov.
US$322 million
The World Bank raised $322 million in 2017 when it launched the world’s first-ever pandemic bond.
QUIZ
How many people die globally during the winter influenza season in a typical year?
A. 5,000
B. 50,000
C. 500,000
Scroll to the bottom of the email for the answer.
DID YOU KNOW?
The 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic infected about 500 million people, killing somewhere between 50 million and 100 million of them, or between three and five percent of the world’s population at the time. By comparison, the First World War killed about 20 million. Caused by H1N1, the same subtype of flu virus that also caused a 2009 outbreak, it resulted in US life expectancy falling by about 12 years.
TIMELINE
There have been plenty of far worse pandemics throughout history, most of them occurring before both the advent of modern medicine and the realisation that hygiene played a role in spreading them. Here are some of the most significant.
430 to 426 BC Plague of Athens; 75,000 to 100,000 deaths; cause unknown
165 to 180 AD Antonine Plague; about five million deaths; probably smallpox
541 to 542 Plague of Justinian; 25 million to 50 million deaths; plague
1331 to 1353 Black Death; 50 million to 200 million deaths; plague
1918 to 1920 Spanish Flu; 50 million to 100 million deaths; H1N1 influenza virus
1920 to the present day Aids; 32 million deaths as of the end of 2018; human immunodeficiency virus
Vice heads to Uganda, where the Zika virus was first discovered, to analyse just how vulnerable humans really are to a new pandemic, and what options we have to beat them.
THE FULL PICTURE
Where The Coronavirus Is At
These are the places that have recorded confirmed cases of 2019-nCov, according to the Centers For Disease Control.
Source: CDC
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Fighting Infection With Science
The Pioneer W Ian Lipkin W Ian Lipkin has pioneered advances that have made it possible to study new pathogens more quickly. The John Snow Professor of Epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity of Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, he has been in China helping with the battle against 2019-nCov, and was similarly involved in the fights against Sars, Mers and West Nile Virus.
The Chairman Larry Brilliant Epidemiologist, technologist, philanthropist and author of the memoir Sometimes Brilliant, Larry Brilliant is the chairman of the Board of Ending Pandemics. In the 1970s, he was involved in the World Health Organization’s successful campaign to eradicate smallpox.
The Communicator Laurie Garrett
The leading public communicator of how infectious diseases spread and can be contained, science writer Laurie Garrett was awarded a Pulitzer Prize in 1996 for her articles about the Ebola outbreak in Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of the Congo. She is the author of books including The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases In A World Out Of Balance.
Gen.T Spotlight
Two Honourees To Follow
Jasmin Jalil HIV/Aids is the global pandemic the world has been living with for decades, and Jasmin Jalil is one of the people trying to blunt its impact. The executive director of the Malaysian Aids Foundation, and a former banker who started with the organisation as a volunteer, he takes a harm reduction, public health approach to improving conditions for people with the virus, including working with Islamic authorities to reduce taboo and stigma. READ MORE
Dean Ho Dean Ho is using artificial intelligence to come up with new ways of treating infectious diseases. He is director of the The N.1 Institute for Health at the National University of Singapore, which is using its Curate.AI platform to develop personalised medicines for a range of conditions. READ MORE
FROM THE ARCHIVES
Did you miss our Deep Dive on How To Build A Team That Wins? Read it here.
ONE FINAL THING
Do Your Research
Since the outbreak of 2019-nCov, there has been a surge in interest in the 2011 film Contagion, directed by Steven Soderbergh, which depicts the rapid spread and eventual containment of a deadly virus, and was widely praised on release for its scientific accuracy.
NEXT WEEK
Unlocking Your Potential: Productivity
That's it for this issue. Have a productive week!
The Deep Dive is a weekly close-up look at an idea, issue or trend that’s shaping Asia’s future. This issue was written by Richard Lord, with production by Samantha Topp and Denise Ng. It was edited by Lee Williamson.
We’d love to know what you think of this issue, and future topics you’d like us to cover. Please send your comments to editor@generationt.asia. And if you missed it, don’t forget to check out last week’s Deep Dive, on Building A Team That Wins.
