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Cumberland Advisors Week in Review ( Feb 10, 2020 - Feb 14, 2020)
Feb 15, 2020

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors' Weekly Recap

This week we feature a quick recap on equities and John Mousseau gives us an analysis on bonds:

-Busy Day!
-Bloomberg's Mike McKee joined us at our annual event, Understanding Global Markets and Finance - Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day, and we're sharing his interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (see below)
-Matt says equities had a little softness. We had 1-2% range in equity markets this week.

-With new accounts, we're only putting a portion of money to work, we're looking for better risk-reward conditions

-John was on a bond panel today with Jay Bryson of Wells Fargo, look for that panel video next week

-John thinks we're seeing money park in the safety of treasuries over coronavirus worries - he explains

-Happy Valentines Day!

Please reach out to me with any questions/comments you may have about this week's video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week's update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/lMu_-buZNlQ

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

In the News…

Fourth annual Financial Literacy Day

Quoted: John Mousseau | Posted on: 02/14/2020 read more

Mester Says Fed Working With Private Sector to Develop Faster Payment System

Quoted: Loretta Mester at Cumberland Conference | Posted on: 02/14/2020 read more

Bloomberg – Fed Leaves Main Rate Unchanged, Saying Policy Is Appropriate – Kotok (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/07/2020 read more

Cumberland’s Kotok Bullish on Stocks But Says Virus Could Be Game Changer

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/06/2020 read more

This Stock Market Surge Could Have a Ridiculously Surprising Catalyst

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/05/2020 read more

Goldilocks Is Back, With a Face Mask On. Bears Beware

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/04/2020 read more

Morning Money – 2020 finally gets real

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/03/2020 read more

Bracing for Bernie: Why Sanders could be a nightmare for Wall Street

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/03/2020 read more

Friendly Mention....

I have said repeatedly for the last three or four years that I don’t expect recession within 12 months (you can’t really see much further than that in the data) barring some “exogenous shock” from outside the US. I usually cite Europe and China as the main possibilities. My 2020 forecast was for slower growth but no recession. But now we may be getting that exogenous shock via China’s coronavirus. Good friend and fishing buddy David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors has long been a keen epidemic watcher. It’s kind of his personal thing. He was all over SARS, Ebola, Zika and others. Now he says what we all know: China is lying about the data. China cannot be trusted on any statistic. We have suspected that for years, with plenty of evidence. Now we have absolute proof. It is literally impossible for epidemiologists, even without government pressure, to accurately know the number of deaths caused by the virus until after the fact. They can make guesses, but they do it without good data. In this case, it seems they were making politically pressured lowball guesses and now are trying to catch up.

- By John Mauldin, February 14, 2020

Read more: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/depending-on-the-undependable

Cumberland Commentaries

Virus Death Count

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 14, 2020

Markets were dealt a surprise on February 12, when changes to the way coronavirus cases in Hubei Province are counted resulted in a dramatic surge in the number of new cases reported in China (“Coronavirus: Hubei Province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria,” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed). For epidemiologists and for [Continued…]

The Virus and Cruise Ships

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 12, 2020

Virus news continues to erupt worldwide and financial markets seem divided, with bonds saying lower interest rates for longer, slower global growth, and a downward inflation outlook. Stock markets, on the other hand, like the low interest rates more than they fear the virus. The headline stock index changes masks the industry-specific impacts. The stock [Continued…]

Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing, Washington: Case Studies in Gov’t Failure under Viral Conditions

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 11, 2020

Let’s summarize the Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing cover-up and aftermath: October and November – flu-like symptoms, sickness and deaths attributed to flu. December – whistleblower doctor joins other doctors in alerting colleagues of novel coronavirus. Whistle-blower and other doctors punished by China government and silenced. China later attributes source of virus to seafood market (this is now believed to [Continued…]

The Fed — What Next?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 10, 2020

With the no-change decision by the FOMC, rendered as the impeachment finale was playing out, and with the next FOMC meeting about a month away, the most important upcoming event for the Fed is Chairman Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress this week. The Board’s report is already out, and it provides a fairly clear indication [Continued…]

See Mike McKee's interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Loretta was our keynote speaker or our annual conference, "Understanding Global Markets & Finance". Mike joined us for the day at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee and conducted this interview on site.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Video

To watch, click above or follow this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-02-14/fed-s-mester-on-u-s-economy-coronavirus-risk-and-rates-video

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