Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of March 6-13

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look ahead:

March 5/ Putin-Erdogan meeting on Syria: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Moscow on Thursday as their countries edge closer to direct military conflict in the Syrian civil war.

• What's happened so far: Turkey launched operation Spring Shield, bombing multiple Syrian-regime targets in Idlib in a major escalation in the nine-year civil war. Turkey says they are seeking to avenge the killing of 34 Turkish soldiers in Idlib by Syrian-regime forces, but their renewed military action is the result of months of tensions after Russian-backed Syrian forces began an all out assault on the last remaining opposition strongholds in Idlib, violating the 2018 Russia-Turkey-backed ceasefire. The assault has caused the largest exodus of refugees since the war began, with almost 950,000 people fleeing northwest Syria since December.
• The impact: Experts say Russia is worried about being dragged into a real war with Turkey, and it will aim to achieve a ceasefire at the meeting but expects Turkey to give up something in return. Turkey’s latest offensive is partly motivated by domestic concerns about more Syrian refugees settling in the country and it lifted controls on migrants exiting for the EU on Friday, putting pressure on Greece at the European Union. A short-term compromise between NATO’s second-largest military and Russia is possible but unlikely to resolve the overall problem in Syria.

March 6/ Trump visits tornado-hit Tennessee: U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Tennessee on Friday — days after tornadoes ravaged Nashville and its surrounding counties, leaving at least 25 people dead. 

• What's happened so far: Tennessee is currently under a state of emergency after the deadliest day from tornadoes in seven years, CNN reports. At least 25 people were killed in four counties, according to Wednesday’s figures, and at least 38 people remain unaccounted for, officials say. On Wednesday afternoon, about 30,000 people were still without power. Wilson County schools and Putnam County schools canceled classes for the remainder of the week. Around 50 structures collapsed or were destroyed during the storms, according to Nashville fire officials.
• The impact: Trump is set to visit the Nashville area on Friday, but details of his visit are still unclear. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has warned the death toll from Tuesday’s storms is expected to rise as authorities search for missing people. Forecasters also warn this week’s storm is only the beginning of an active twister season — AccuWeather predicts Tennessee will see more than double the average 75 tornadoes in March.

March 8/ International Women’s Day:  Numerous events are taking place across the globe Sunday to commemorate International Women’s Day, an annual celebration that lauds the social, economic, cultural and political achievements of women.

• What's happened so far: This year’s theme is #EachforEqual, which organizers say is drawn from the notion of collective individualism and calls for personal actions towards the societal goal of equality. No widespread strike action is expected, but marches are taking place in cities including London, Kuala Lumpur and New York. India’s President Narendra Modi has vowed to give away his social media accounts to an inspiring woman for the day, while Apple is holding a series of over 5,000 women-led creative sessions online and in stores across the world.
• The impact: It’s unlikely any International Women’s Day event will draw large crowds given the global coronavirus outbreak — Switzerland and France have banned gatherings of more than 1,000 and 5,000 people respectively in a bid to prevent the virus from spreading. Organizers of the Women’s March Malaysia have asked attendees to wear face masks, both as protection from coronavirus and to conceal their identities, as some participants of last year’s event were reportedly subjected to online abuse and property vandalism.

March 9/ National strike in Mexico against femicide: Women in Mexico will “disappear” for 24 hours on Monday in response to two gender-based murders that have shocked the nation.

• What's happened so far: Feminist activism has gained new energy in Mexico over the past year. In 2019, the country registered 1,006 incidents of femicide, a 10% increase over the year before. The issue came to a head last month when 25-year-old Ingrid Escamilla and 7-year-old Fátima Cecilia Aldrighett Antón were brutally killed within a few days of each other. Activist groups decided to protest with a “Day Without Women,” urging millions of women to stay home.
• The impact: The strike is expected to cost the Mexican economy $1.3 billion, according to a national business group. Despite that, many corporations and politicians have voiced their support for the strike. It could shift how Mexico treats its women, and organizers say they want this to lead to concrete action.

March 10/ Democrats in six states head to polls: On Tuesday, one week after Super Tuesday, voters in six more states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Washington and North Dakota — will weigh in in the Democratic presidential primary. 

• What's happened so far: Former Vice President Joe Biden won at least 10 of the 14 states that voted Tuesday, including Texas, while Sen. Bernie Sanders earned a key victory in delegate-rich California. The once substantial field of candidates has winnowed dramatically since the South Carolina primary, with Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar all suspending their campaigns in the following days. Mike Bloomberg joined that group on Wednesday after a disappointing showing on Super Tuesday, while Elizabeth Warren was reportedly meeting with her team to "assess the path forward," after failing to hit viability benchmarks in many states.
• The impact: While races have been all but decided in years past before voters in many states weighed in, the unsettled nature of the 2020 race has given increased importance to states outside the traditional first four and Super Tuesday. 

March 11/ U.K. Budget: The biggest fiscal event in the United Kingdom will take place Wednesday, with the new chancellor expected to set out this government’s financial agenda for the coming year for the first time since coming into power and delivering Brexit.

• What's happened so far: This year’s budget comes just four weeks after chancellor Rishi Sunak took office following the resignation of Sajid Javid, leaving him with little time to prepare. But the tight deadline is not the main issue that Sunak is facing. Instead, he has to weigh fears that coronavirus could trigger a global economic downturn, the impact of flooding across the country over the last few weeks, and the fact that the U.K. is no longer part of the European Union.
• The impact: The budget was expected to set out the government’s vision for the country post-Brexit and deliver on promises from last year’s elections. Sunak, however, will likely delay some of the biggest decisions on tax, spending and borrowing until the autumn amid growth forecast downgrades and the coronavirus outbreak. Labour MP Rachel Reeves has warned the chancellor must not use the current uncertainty “as an excuse to further delay the investment that the north and our public services so badly need.”

What else matters:

Coronavirus in the United States: The first domestic case of coronavirus in the United States was confirmed on Jan. 21, involving a man in Snohomish County, Wash., who had returned from Wuhan, China, six days earlier.  Since then, the virus has been found in at least 16 states and health officials have confirmed at least 121 cases. Some of those cases, like the one from Jan. 21, have been found to be travel-related. Others have been transmitted person-to-person within the states. What’s more, research suggests the virus, at least in Washington state, may have been spreading unpredicted for weeks. At least 11 people have died from COVID-19 in the United States.

• Watch for: Federal, state, and local health officials are working to ramp up testing. In previous weeks, testing was only done by the CDC and was reserved for people with certain travel history or exposure to someone who tested positive. As local testing efforts get underway, expect to see the number of cases rise. Accordingly, officials may start calling for interventions, like school and event cancellations, work-from-home policies, or travel restrictions. In short, if large clusters of cases are found, watch for the same type of social distancing tactics other countries have implemented in attempts to control the spread of infection.

Afghanistan conflict: Despite the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban, the Islamist militant group that controls most of the country, Afghanistan appears no closer to a lasting cessation of violence. After a week-long ceasefire, fighting erupted between Taliban fighters and Afghan forces in multiple provinces this week, with President Ashraf Ghani refusing to release Taliban prisoners as stipulated in the U.S.-Taliban deal.

• Watch for: The clashes are combining with Afghanistan’s disputed presidential election to increase the risk of further instability in the central Asian nation. The planned March 9 inauguration of Ghani, who has claimed victory with just over 50 percent of the vote, is awaiting mediation by a U.S. envoy that is uncertain to end the dispute with runner-up Abdullah Abdullah — who has vowed to set up a parallel government. With the United States set to begin withdrawal of its 12,000 troops, the Taliban moves a step closer to accomplishing its objective of expanding control over the rest of the country and imposing its brand of Islamic law.

Coronavirus impacts on air travel: Numerous airlines have moved to cancel flights or curtail service to destinations across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, with United the latest to announce both international and domestic cuts through April due to reduced demand. Increasingly, travelers entering the United States have been faced with more intensive screenings upon their arrival from locales where the virus has taken hold.

• Watch for: A survey released late last month by the Global Business Travel Association suggested the outbreak could cost the travel industry approximately $47 billion per month. Some experts believe the significant disruption in operations may ultimately be too much for some smaller airlines to bear. Meanwhile, airline stocks have also taken a hit, but the biggest losers have not been carriers with substantial Asian operations but those with higher debt loads, hinting at the potential for a larger coronavirus-linked economic downturn.  

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

March 5: OPEC meeting in Vienna; NASA announces name of Mars 2020 rover; Putin-Erdogan meeting on Syria; Inaugural Spotify Awards hosted in Mexico City

March 6: Trump surveys storm damage in Tennessee; EU health ministers meeting on coronavirus; SpaceX and NASA send supplies to ISS

March 8: International Women’s Day; Daylight saving time begins in U.S.

March 9: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani inauguration; national strike in Mexico against femicide; $1.2 billion Eurobond due date for Lebanon

March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Washington primaries; North Dakota Democratic caucus

March 11: UK Budget

March 12: Virgin Islands Republican caucus

March 13: Guam Republican caucus, Northern Marianas Democratic convention, Wyoming Republican conventions

March 15: Christchurch mosque attack anniversary; NCAA Selection Sunday

March 17: Arizona Democratic primary; Florida, Illinois and Ohio primaries; Northern Marianas Republican convention; Netanyahu trial begins; St. Patrick’s Day

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