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Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of Feb. 28-March 6

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com

A look ahead:

Feb. 29/ Parliamentary elections in Slovakia: The long-ruling center-left Smer party will try to keep its hold on Slovakia's National Council in elections on Saturday, despite slipping poll numbers and the rise of the far-right People's Party-Our Slovakia (LSNS).

March 1/ Guinea elections and referendum: Guineans will go to the polls Sunday for a dual vote in which they will select 114 new parliamentarians and decide in a referendum on whether to abolish the current presidential two-term limit.

  • What's happened so far: Widespread protests broke out across Guinea in October 2019 when the country’s current president, Alpha Condé, announced that he would be seeking to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third five-year term. Security forces have been accused of using excessive force to quash the demonstrations, which have killed at least 37 people.
  • The impact: Opposition groups have called further demonstrations in the days leading up to the vote, which carry the potential for violence. The United States has voiced concerns as to whether the vote will be free, fair and transparent. The International Organisation of La Francophonie has raised questions over the credibility of Guinea’s electoral register, which it says includes approximately 2.5 million “problematic” names.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the inauguration of the Stephen Jay Harper Patient Center at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in Jerusalem on Nov. 5, 2019. (Photo: Amos Ben Gershom / GPO)

March 2/ Israeli legislative elections: On Monday, for the third time in less than 12 months, Israelis will head to the polls to try to produce a clear winner and functioning government.

  • What's happened so far:  In April 2019, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party received the most votes, but he wasn’t able to form a majority coalition in the Knesset. In September’s election, the centrist Blue and White Party, led by former General Benny Gantz, won the most votes. Gantz has also been unable to form a coalition. In January, Netanyahu was indicted for fraud, bribery and breach of trust but has refused to step down. Even if Netanyahu is reelected, his trial is scheduled to begin on March 17. Netanyahu and Gantz have also endorsed a widely panned Israeli-Palestinian peace plan put forward by U.S. President Trump.
  • The impact: A new poll shows Likud and Blue and White neck-and-neck, with each party projected to get fewer than 40 seats in the 120-seat parliament. It’s possible that, once again, no one will be able to form a coalition. Israel’s Supreme Court has said that the Knesset is unable to pass any major laws or even a budget until a coalition is in place, which could put pressure on the parties to make a deal.

March 2/ Protests in Chile: A number of anti-government protests are planned across Chile during the first week of March, starting on Monday, as students return to school after their February break.

  • What's happened so far: Protests against a proposed metro fare hike in Santiago have since escalated into clashes that left more than two dozen dead, with people continuing to take to the streets over significant income inequality in the country. Over the weekend, violent clashes between police and protesters overshadowed the opening night of Latin America's biggest music festival in Viña del Mar. On Monday, a “Reno Piñera” protest  — calling for President Sebastián Piñera to resign — is expected to bring thousands of people to the streets.
  • The impact: The government is worried about the new wave of protests just over a month before the scheduled referendum on whether to change the constitution, which dates back to the years of military rule under Gen. Augusto Pinochet. The economy minister has called for the end of violence to improve the country’s economic situation, warning further unrest will have a negative impact on employment and commerce. People also plan to take to the streets on March 11, marking two years since Piñera took office.

March 3/ Super TuesdayVoters in 14 U.S. states will cast their ballots on Tuesday in Democratic primaries. Nearly a third of the 4,000 delegates at the Democratic National Convention are up for grabs on what's known as "Super Tuesday."

Pro-choice and anti-abortion demonstrators stage concurrent events outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington, D.C., on  April 26, 1989.
(Photo: Lorie Shaull / Flickr)

March 4/ U.S. Supreme Court hears abortion case: The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments Wednesday on June Medical Services LLC v. Russo, a case that challenges a 2014 Louisiana law requiring abortion providers to have admitting privileges at a hospital within 30 miles.

March 5/ OPEC meeting in Vienna: OPEC and its allies will meet in Vienna starting on Thursday for a two-day summit amid tensions over whether to cut oil production.

What else matters:

Coronavirus escalation: Concerns about the spread of coronavirus (members’ link) outside its epicenter in China are growing, after South Korea, Italy and Iran reported a surge in cases and more than 30 deaths in a matter of days. The World Health Organization says nations need to prepare for a possible pandemic, or when an infectious disease spreads between people in multiple regions of the world.

  • Watch for: Travel disruptions are on the rise, while senior American health officials say they “ultimately” expect the virus to spread among communities in the United States. The city of San Francisco has declared a state of emergency in anticipation. Although macroeconomic indicators have yet to show the impact of the epidemic on global output, investors are already pricing in the risk, with the S&P 500 wiping out gains since the start of the year and safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds on the rise.
Protesters place blockades across Canadian National Railway tracks outside of Edmonton, Alberta, in solidarity with the Wet'suwet'en. (Photo: @C4Wetsuweten / Twitter)

Canadian rail blockades: Rail and other transit disruptions across Canada have stretched into a third week amid an ongoing dispute over a natural gas pipeline that would run through historically native land in northern British Columbia. The Coastal GasLink project is opposed by Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs, while others across the country have blocked railways and shut down major roadways in solidarity. 

  • Watch for: While some rail blockades — including ones in Belleville, Ontario, and Saint-Lambert, Quebec — have come down, others have sprouted up across various provinces. Transport Minister Marc Garneau said on Tuesday that provincial police will "move in" on any new blockades in response to court injunctions, but there's no telling whether the threat of police action will prevent protestors from continuing to set up on railways. For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the focus remains on a "peaceful and lasting resolution," but said late last week that all attempts at dialogue with the hereditary chiefs have yet to deliver results.

East Africa locusts: One of the world’s poorest regions is battling a locust infestation that is “unprecedented in modern times,” according to the United Nations. In all, at least eight countries with a combined population of about 290 million people are facing the risk of exasperating existing food shortages as the locusts wipe out vital crops (members’ link).

  • Watch for: The locust invasion, which has so far mainly impacted Nile basin countries from Tanzania northward, is widening, with swarms seen entering DR Congo. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization continues to appeal for money to fight the insects, having raised less than a quarter of the $138 million needed to fight off the insects. The agency is warning of locust eggs that have already been laid in the region, which would produce a wave of mature insects that “could devastate East Africa’s most important crop of the year, right when it is at its most vulnerable.”

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

Feb. 27: Malaysia to announce stimulus package; Vice President Mike Pence speaks at CPAC

Feb. 28: Trump rally in North Charleston, S.C.

Feb. 29: Parliamentary elections in Slovakia; South Carolina Democratic primary

March 1: Legislative elections in Guinea; parliamentary elections in Tajikistan

March 2: Guyanese general election; Israeli legislative elections; Trump rally in Charlotte, N.C.; protests planned in Chile

March 3: U.S. Super Tuesday

March 4: U.S. Supreme Court hears major abortion case; Nik Wallenda attempts hire-wire walk over active Masaya Volcano in Nicaragua

March 5: OPEC meeting in Vienna; NASA announces name of Mars 2020 rover

March 9: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani inauguration; national strike in Mexico against femicide

March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Washington primaries; North Dakota Democratic caucus

March 11: UK Budget

March 12: Virgin Islands Republican caucus

March 13: Guam Republican caucus, Northern Marianas Democratic convention, Wyoming Republican conventions


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