Special Analysis
Friday, March 13, 2020 (after the close)
We can see that COST is below the 200 day SMA. When a stock is below its 200 day line there is a higher probability that it could go lower. If it looks like COST is going to close below 271.82, then it's probably going lower and needs to be closed. Thus, if one opens a position now, they will need to watch it daily, and especially during the last 30 minutes of trade each day to make sure it doesn't fail below 271.82. If it looks like it's going to close below 271.82, best to immediately close the position that same day before the close of the market. One could consider buying a long position once the stock is back over the 200 day line and has held above this level for a couple of days.
Below is MSFT. Best to wait for it to get back over 152.37 where it holds above this level for a couple of days. If it starts to fail and falls back below the 200 day line or 133.20, then close it. The other option is to buy it if it gets near 133.20; that is you are buying it near the major support level of 133.20. Close it if it looks like it's going to close below 133.20.
Two options with CVS. One is to buy it when it's down near the low of 51.96. If it looks like it's going to close below this level, then immediately close the position. The other option is to wait for it to get back over the 200 day line and 66.67. Once it's over this level, the probabilities increase that it's going to move higher and retest 76.
Two options with HD. One is to buy it when it's down near the bottom of the channel near of 181.36. If it looks like it's going to close below this level, then immediately close the position because it's probably going down to 160. The other option is to wait for it to get back over the top of the channel at 212.30. With this said, right now even if it gets over 212.30 it's still below the 200 day line, which is not optimum.
For VWAPY, it's below 15.3, so it's difficult to know how low it can go. One option is to buy it where it's currently at and then set a stop loss where if it were to fall 10% or 15% then you close it. This is the "catching a falling knife" type of setup and can be dangerous. The safer option is to wait for it to close back over 15.3 and to hold above 15.3 for a couple of days before opening a position.
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