Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of March 20-27

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. This week, we’re taking a look at the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on some of the sectors we’ve been covering the most — business, education, travel, politics and more. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

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A look at coronavirus' impacts:

Education: On Wednesday, the United Kingdom became the latest country to shutter schools, joining a growing number of nations to close schools nationwide due to coronavirus. The United States, however, has taken a more piecemeal approach, with each state acting on its own. As of Wednesday, nearly 40 states had closed public schools, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggesting an eight-week closure to stem the spread of coronavirus.

• Watch for: On Tuesday, Kansas became the first state to close schools for the remainder of the school year, a move other states may make in the coming days. Meanwhile, school districts have scrambled to figure out how to get food to students that qualify for free or reduced cost lunch — approximately 30 million children nationwide — while some have warned that the absence of child care could take health care workers off the front lines. For high school seniors, states like Washington have moved to allow for emergency waivers if closures prevent the completion of core classes required to graduate.

Markets and economy: Central banks around the world are rushing to keep their economies from falling into recession due to the unprecedented travel restrictions and bans on business activities (members' link) imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus. The scramble to print money and cut interest rates has done little to calm investor fears of a prolonged decline in global economic output and a credit crisis similar in magnitude to the Great Depression.

• Watch for: As Western governments continue to impose stricter quarantine measures — some like Italy, France and Spain, on a national level — equity and bond markets, which normally move in opposite directions, are serving as a gauge for how investors are perceiving their effectiveness. Major U.S. and European indexes have already lost more than a quarter of their value, as officials warn the United States is at least several weeks away from peak transmission of the virus. April is likely to see more market volatility as nations release their first-quarter output figures, with China projected to see a contraction of 9 percent and the United States expected to post zero growth, according to Goldman Sachs. Here’s the calendar of upcoming U.S. economic releases, some of which may impact markets.

Travel: Many countries have decided to close their borders indefinitely in a bid to prevent further spread of the coronavirus. The United States imposed a travel ban on Europe, while Canada closed its borders to all foreigners. Due to these travel restrictions (members’ link), airlines have begun to take a severe hit — Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, has cut seat capacity by 80 percent and is being forced to cut jobs.

• Watch for: Italy said it plans to re-nationalize the bankrupt Alitalia airline under an emergency economic rescue plan, and more countries could follow the lead. U.S. airlines are seeking a $50 billion bailout, and the British aviation industry has warned it may not survive the coronavirus pandemic without emergency financial support. Meanwhile, more countries are expected to implement border controls and city lockdowns. The U.K. has so far declined to impose tougher travel measures, but the faster-than-expected spread of coronavirus across the country will likely lead to travel bans and border closures. 

Elections: While Arizona, Florida and Illinois pushed ahead with their primary elections on March 17, five other U.S. states postponed polls, citing health risks to both voters and election workers. In France, the second round of municipal elections, scheduled for March 22, have been delayed. The United Kingdom, meanwhile, postponed local and London mayoral elections, due to take place on May 7, for one year.

• Watch for:  Primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are currently scheduled to go ahead as planned on April 28, although this is highly likely to change. Depending on how long the coronavirus outbreak persists in the United States, voting in this November’s presidential election could be impacted. Some Democratic lawmakers are planning for this eventuality by introducing legislation requiring states to offer early in-person voting, no-excuse absentee and vote-by-mail options.

Health care: With coronavirus now in all 50 states in the United States, hospitals in the hardest-hit areas are warning of dire situations in health care facilities. In Seattle, a shortage of masks and medical supplies is leaving doctors and nurses dangerously exposed, while New York is estimating a need for 100,000 more beds. Testing for the virus is expected to increase in coming days, but experts say the U.S. testing capacity remains "extraordinarily limited."

• Watch for: A recent Harvard analysis suggested that even with a “moderate” spread, hospitals will soon run out of room. A variety of solutions, including a field hospital in a Seattle-area soccer field and two hospital ships in New York, are popping up in response and are likely to be case studies for the rest of the country. In an attempt to address the shortage of medical supplies, President Donald Trump invoked the Defense Production Act, giving the White House the authority to order the manufacturing of necessary products. Despite this, public health officials say the only real way to avoid shortages is “flattening the curve,” or slowing the spread.

What else matters:

U.S. tornado season: With a string of deadly tornadoes in Tennessee on the books, the 2020 tornado season is already underway in the United States. March typically brings an average of 80 tornadoes before the season ramps up in April and peaks in early June.

• Watch for: Meteorologists are looking at this month as an indicator for what the season holds. AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok warns "things could get unstable quickly" once cold weather shifts out of the central Plains and lower midwest  What’s more, this year’s storms could prove to be particularly problematic for local authorities already facing pressures from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Syria ceasefire: The uneasy truce that has held up in Syria’s Idlib province since March 5 appears to be at risk of collapse, as Russian and Turkish forces struggle to implement joint patrols aimed at curbing the violence and halting direct confrontations between the Turkish and Syrian armies. Meanwhile, Turkey has continued to work toward expelling Syrian government forces from the region, having failed to do so. Its attempts have already led to hundreds of deaths on both sides and the displacement of one million civilians, raising international alarm of a looming humanitarian crisis.

• Watch for: The stalemate is now drawing intervention from European leaders who are worried about the influx of refugees into the continent if Turkey allows them to reach Greek borders as it did earlier this month. A permanent ceasefire would require the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria, a scenario that appears unlikely with the conflict having drawn several outside actors, including Russia, Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, several Gulf states and the United States.

Cape Town wildfire: Strong winds fueled a large wildfire in the Table Mountain National Park area of Cape Town, South Africa, over the weekend. Aerial support and more than 200 firefighters were able to extinguish the blaze on Monday, not before the fire forced the evacuation of one of the wealthiest streets in Cape Town, injured seven firefighters, and destroyed property.

• Watch for: South African police are now investigating the cause of the fire as a case of arson, with residents providing footage that reportedly showed that the fire was deliberately lit. This is the latest in a series of fires to affect the area, with 63 fires recorded in the national park last year. South African National Parks say more than a third of Table Mountain fires are a result of arson.  

Coronavirus resources:

What we're looking at as we cover the outbreak

Johns Hopkins outbreak map: Map is updated regularly and shows cases worldwide

COVID Tracking Project:Information on U.S. cases and death tolls

WHO Twitter: Includes live streams of daily press briefings 

WHO Twitter list of health journalists: Nearly 100 journalists covering the outbreak and other health news

CDC, Public Health Agency of Canada, Santé Publique France: Information on how to protect yourself, plus other community resources

Factal coronavirus feed

Live blogs: El Pais (Spain), BFM TV (France), Guardian (UK), Washington Post (US), Agenzia ANZA (Italy), Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), Fars (Iran), G1 (Brazil)

Extended outlook:

What's on our radar in the coming weeks

April 1: Census Day

April 4: Alaska and Hawaii Democratic primaries; Wyoming Democratic caucuses

April 7: Wisconsin primaries

April 13: Syrian parliamentary elections

April 15: South Korea National Assembly election

April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island primaries

May 2: Guam Democratic caucus, Kansas Democratic primary

May 3: Bolivia general election

May 5: Indiana primaries

May 12: Nebraska and West Virginia primaries

May 19: Oregon primaries

May 20: Burundi presidential election

June 2: DC, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries

June 6: Virgin Islands Democratic caucuses

June 10: G7 meeting at Camp David

July 13: Democratic National Convention

July 24: Olympics opening ceremony

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