SPERT® News, Tips & Tricks.

Hi <<First Name>>!
Welcome to the Statistical PERT® April newsletter!

I'm sorry if this email arrives at a bad time for you because of Covid-19.  My prayers are for you and the whole world that this pandemic may quickly pass over us.

The Free April Webinar

Want to learn how to estimate using Monte Carlo simulation? In this month's free webinar, I will introduce you to Monte Carlo simulation, which many people have heard about but not many people know how to do. 

We'll use the built-in functions inside Microsoft Excel to build a simulation spreadsheet from scratch, and we'll also look at the new Monte Carlo simulation worksheet inside Version 4 of the Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. We'll remove the veil of mystery surrounding Monte Carlo simulation and equip you to run your own simulations using just a SPERT spreadsheet.  Here's are the questions we'll address:

• What is Monte Carlo simulation?
• Why would I want to use Monte Carlo simulation?
• How do I use Monte Carlo simulation to solve estimation problems?
• How can I use native Excel to build a simulation model?
• How does Statistical PERT implement Monte Carlo simulation?
• What other simulation software is available?

Click here to register for this FREE, one-hour webinar on Tuesday, March 17 from 12P-1P (Eastern USA).

Histogram Charts in Excel & SPERT® Normal Edition

A few SPERT users contacted me recently about a problem they had using the Monte Carlo simulation in Version 4 of the SPERT Normal Edition.  The chart wouldn't render properly, and instead of seeing a distribution histogram, they saw an error message.

After a little research, I think I've discovered the problem.  Microsoft added the histogram chart to Excel 2016; Excel 2010 and Excel 2013 don't have this relatively new chart.

If you can't see the histogram on the Monte Carlo simulation worksheet in Version 4 of SPERT Normal Edition, check to see if you're running either Excel 2010 or Excel 2013.  If so, you're not out-of-luck.  Read this blog post for more information and to find links on how to manually create a histogram chart in older versions of Excel.

Microsoft To End Support for Excel 2010

Microsoft will end its support for all Office 2010 products, including Excel 2010, later this year. Microsoft's extended support service ensures older products still receive bug fixes and security updates, but that service will end for Excel 2010 on October 13, 2020.  

I will continue to support Microsoft Excel 2010 users after October 13, 2020; however, there are some older functions used by Statistical PERT that Microsoft has deprecated (the CONCATENATE function, for example).

Eventually, I will stop supporting older versions of Excel and update SPERT to use only the currently-supported functions (like, the CONCAT function).  If you are an Excel 2010 or Excel 2013 user, you might consider upgrading to the latest release of Excel to get all the latest functions, charts, and capabilities, and to ensure your product is protected with Microsoft's security updates.

Office 365 is now Microsoft 365

I use Microsoft Office 365 but I won't be after April 21, 2020. Microsoft is rebranding Office 365 to become Microsoft 365. Same price and things you love (and hate) about Office products, including Excel 365, remain unchanged. 

SPERT Tips & Tricks

Here are some tips & tricks when using any SPERT spreadsheet:

• Use "Automatic Except Data Tables"  This is the same tip as last month, but since this month I'm doing a webinar on Monte Carlo simulation, this tip bears repeating.  In Version 4 of SPERT Normal Edition, there's a new Monte Carlo simulation worksheet that randomly samples a single random variable 10,000 times using an Excel data table.  But if your application setting for formula recalculation is set to "Automatic", the whole spreadsheet will act sluggishly.  Be sure to read the README (the 2nd worksheet from the left in Version 4) to learn how to choose "Automatic Except Data Tables" so your Version 4 of the SPERT Normal Edition calculates quickly.  You can also safely delete the Monte Carlo simulation worksheet, too, if you don't find it useful. Re-calculating formulas is an application-level setting, not a spreadsheet setting, so your choice affects all Excel spreadsheets, not just the SPERT spreadsheets.
   
• Sharing your SPERT spreadsheet.  All spreadsheet files downloaded from the Statistical PERT website are freely licensed under the GNU General Public License (GPL).  The GNU GPL is a "copyleft" license that gives you the right to use, modify and redistribute a SPERT spreadsheet.  But that license stipulates how you can do that.  To modify and then share your SPERT spreadsheet with others, you must 1) retain the original copyright notice, 2) make clear how you've change the spreadsheet (do that in the "Change Log" worksheet), and 3) keep the notice that the spreadsheet is licensed under the GNU GPL. If you make a significant change to a SPERT spreadsheet, you'll also need to remove the trademark names ("Statistical PERT®" and "SPERT®").
   
• Scroll down to see the 10,000 simulated trials.  On the "SPERT® Normal MC Simulation" worksheet, you can see the 10,000 simulated trials by scrolling to row 61.  In columns B and C, you'll see the trial number and the simulated values for the random variable you're simulating.  These 10,000 data values are input to the histogram chart on this worksheet.