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Today's Topics

3 charts today:

  • As testing rates vary considerably we've switched to tracking fatalities in our latest coronavirus tracker.
  • Warren Buffett has been slowly building up a mountain of cash, what could his company buy with it?
  • US weekly unemployment claims have hit levels never seen before.
The United States officially has the most coronavirus cases, with almost 86,000 confirmed at the latest count. Sadly, because deaths are mounting and testing rates vary so substantially from country to country, it's becoming more prudent to track fatalities, rather than confirmed cases.

This latest version of our tracker, inspired by the work of John Burn-Murdoch, tracks the fatalities of those countries most affected. As always it reveals some hopeful, and some worrying, trends about the spread of coronavirus.

The good news

1) Italy's death count has crossed 8000, but crucially the curve is flattening, showing the effects of almost 3 weeks of full lockdown. Iran's is also slowing.

2) Australia & Canada are a fair bit earlier in their infection cycle, and may be able to flatten their curve by implementing some best practice policies (testing, social distancing) a bit earlier than other countries.

The bad news

1) The US will probably win the race that no-one wants to win, by likely becoming the first country with 100,000 cases. Its fatality curve also appears to be steepening, not getting flatter. Deaths have increased from 200 to 1209 in just 1 week, equivalent to daily growth of 29%.

2) Many other countries on lockdown, including the UK where Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for coronavirus, remain on trajectories similar to that of Italy and Iran.

3) Brazil has now recorded almost 100 fatalities, with president Jair Bolsonaro arguably taking the most anti-scientific line of any world leader, arguing that Brazilians "never catch anything".

Our advice? Same as ever, keep self-isolating, keep sticking to the advice of trusted professionals and epidemiologists.
Back in November we explored the mounting cash pile that Berkshire Hathaway, run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, was building up. That cash pile has slowly but surely grown over the last decade, as Warren and his partner Charlie Munger haven't seen the opportunity to do any major deals. 

In November stock prices were generally at, or very close to, all-time highs. Today that's not the case, with many stocks having fallen 25%+ in the last few weeks. That could mean Warren gets out his pen and starts writing some very big cheques.

What could Berkshire buy?

Because $125bn is an absurd amount of money to get your head around, we've tried to give it some, totally hypothetical, context. With about $125bn, and at the latest market prices, Berkshire could theoretically buy Uber, Lululemon, Spotify, Chipotle, Domino's Pizza and Ralph Lauren.

In reality that's an absurd proposition, for a multitude of reasons, not least of all because acquirers usually need to offer 20-40% above market price in order to get shareholders to go for the deal. But it does give a sense of the kind of magnitude of deal that Berkshire could go for.

Despite producing stellar returns for more than 50 years, Buffett took criticism from some commentators for having had a relatively more modest decade from 2010-2019, with some suggesting the "Oracle of Omaha" had lost his touch. With most companies significantly cheaper than they were just a few months ago, it looks once again like Buffett was ahead of the game by keeping some dry powder.
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Until now there have been few hard data points that reveal anything about the true economic impact of coronavirus. Economists have opined, journalists have guessed, and the stock market has reacted.

Then on Thursday the weekly unemployment claims data from the US was published, revealing that almost 3.3 million people had filed for unemployment benefit.

Truly "off the charts"

That number of claims is truly unprecedented. It's about 5 times the largest number of claims seen during the worst week of the global financial crisis, which peaked at 665,000 back in early 2009.

A number of states even reported their websites were crashing under the strain of people filing, which frighteningly could mean this number was a bit low, as people gave up on crashed sites.

What does this mean?

It's a confirmation of just how bad, and how quickly, things have changed for the global economy. It adds to the weight of evidence that governments needed to intervene with substantial stimulus packages, which many have now done.

Data Snacks


1) Google search trends for "how to cut your own hair" have jumped ~400% as thousands are in lockdown with hair they aren't happy with.

2) Scientists have discovered a type of bacteria that appears to feed on polyurethane, a widely used plastic that globally we produce about 20 million tonnes of every year.

3) Hedge fund Pershing Square, run by billionaire Bill Ackman, made a $27m bet that markets would tank due to coronavirus, a bet which has now profited to the tune of $2.6bn.

4) It's never been easier to do your homework on which stocks or companies you should invest in thanks to Atom Finance's free cutting-edge tools and data. **

5) Nintendo game Animal Crossing: New Horizons has sold 1.88 million copies in its first 3 days of sales in Japan. The game is relaxing, not exciting, as it sees you live a virtual life on a deserted island. 

6) Coronavirus is undoubtedly a depressing topic, but it is truly bringing out the best in some people. Here are 5 uplifting stories for you: Italians singing on balconies, half a million UK volunteers for the NHS, a decline in air pollution, hotels offering free rooms to key-workers, celebrities donating millions.

**This is a sponsored snack.

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