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Welcome to Factal Forecast

For the week of March 27-April 3

Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories and what they mean from the editors at Factal. This week, we’re taking a look at the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on some of the regions it's hit hardest: Spain, Italy, China and New York. If this email was forwarded to you, and you like what you see, you can subscribe for free.

Have feedback, suggestions or events we’ve missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.com

New York's Grand Central Terminal has an unusually sparse crowd during the coronavirus outbreak on March 18. (Photo: UN Photo / Evan Schneider)

A look ahead:

New York: New York state’s coronavirus cases continue to rise rapidly, now topping 30,000 as officials work to ramp up testing. More than half of the cases are in New York City, where 18,000 people are sick, and the majority of the reported deaths. The state has formed a pact with its neighbors, notably Connecticut and New Jersey, to enforce restrictions in an effort to slow spread. White House experts have also asked those who have recently left the city to self-quarantine for 14 days to limit spread elsewhere.

Italy: Europe has become the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the World Health Organization, with the death toll in Italy surpassing China's last week. On Saturday, the country reported a record 793 deaths in a single 24-hour period. A two-day period of decline in the death rate earlier this week suggested Italy may have hit its peak, but those hopes were short-lived. The number of new cases, however, declined since Monday, suggesting stringent restrictions on movement may be working.

Spain: Since confirming its first coronavirus cases in early February, Spain has registered more than 4,000 deaths, surpassing the death toll in China and becoming the second worst-hit country in Europe. According to officials, more than 5,000 of Spain’s health workers have been infected with the virus. Spain has been in lockdown since March 14, one day after declaring a state of emergency. The border with neighboring Portugal will also be closed for at least a month.

More than 70 firefighters worked March 24 to fully clean the Wuhan Railway Station in China as the city prepares to reopen public spaces amid the coronavirus outbreak. (Photo: He Han / Xinhua News Agency)

China's recovery: China’s Communist Party is beginning to ease the unprecedented lockdown measures it imposed in January to limit the spread of coronavirus. With the number of new infections slowing to a trickle at ground zero of the outbreak, the Hubei province, Beijing said its containment efforts have succeeded, justifying a gradual reversal on the restriction of movement and business operations.

  • Watch for: Most of Hubei’s 60 million residents were allowed this week to resume travel outside the province, while restrictions in Wuhan are set to be lifted April 8. The push to return people to work is raising concerns about a possible second wave, especially as Chinese authorities continue to eliminate asymptomatic infections from their official tally. China’s moves over the next two weeks will also likely be closely watched by the Trump administration, which is increasingly promoting the resumption of normal economic activity even as U.S. infections and deaths continue to grow at a rapid pace.

Healthcare impact: As the number of coronavirus cases continues to rise, medical professionals and government officials alike have expressed widespread concern over a lack of necessities. Face masks, surgical gowns and other personal protective equipment is in short supply, while a shortage of ventilators forcing doctors in cities such as Seattle to plan for difficult decisions over who gets treatment priority at hospitals now at risk of being overwhelmed if cases spike

  • Watch for: On Tuesday, Ford announced it was working with 3M and GE to produce medical equipment and protective gear, as companies shift gears to address shortages. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how piecemeal social distancing measures enacted on the state and local level will impact figures, as officials hope to "flatten the curve" to suppress infections and keep hospitals under capacity.  

Markets and economy: U.S. and European equities remain in bear market territory amid uncertainty over the damage coronavirus is inflicting on their combined $40 trillion economies, or almost half of global output. Even in Asia, where signs of possible containment are emerging, stocks are down about 20 percent over the past month. Safe haven assets, such as gold and the U.S. dollar, remain strong, reflecting the lack of clarity and doubt regarding the effectiveness of government stimulus programs being announced to alleviate the economic fallout.

  • Watch for: Investors are keeping a close eye on a potential $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package that aims to provide a lifeline for airlines, industries, small businesses and workers whose incomes were severely cut or eliminated by the halt in economic activity over the past two weeks. It’s also unclear whether U.S. President Trump will be able to achieve his goal of getting the “country opened” by Easter. Markets are watching Europe for a potential peak in the spread of the virus, although Italy, Spain and France continue to report rising figures.
Travel: Multiple countries have introduced nationwide lockdowns (members’ link) in the past week. In India, President Modi confined the country’s 1.3 billion people to their homes for at least 21 days. In the United Kingdom, police can fine those leaving their homes for non-essential reasons. Countries throughout South America closed borders, and both Australia and New Zealand are tightening travel restrictions. Flights have been halted or drastically reduced at key transit hubs such as United Arab Emirates and Singapore, and flight operators continue to struggle with the economic fallout.
  • Watch for: As much of the world goes into lockdown, China has begun relaxing its own travel restrictions to and from the Hubei province. Meanwhile, European budget airline Ryanair said it does not expect to operate for up to three months and offered its aircrafts to European Union governments for essential flights. On Friday, Russia will suspend all regular and charter flights in and out of the country. Pakistan, meanwhile, imposed widespread travel restrictions but has so far held off declaring a lockdown, despite reports it is on the cusp of a major outbreak.

Guinea President Alpha Conde meets with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue on Sept. 18, 2019 in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Tom Witham / USDA)

What else matters:

Guinea protests: Months of protests in Guinea culminated Sunday in deadly clashes as the West African nation moved toward a constitutional referendum. Officials said two people were killed, but some opposition figures have the death toll as high as 15. While President Alpha Conde claims the constitutional referendum is intended to enshrine gender equality by banning underage marriage, among other things, critics say it is merely an attempt to prolong his stay in power, as he has signaled is his intention.

  • Watch for: More clashes are likely depending upon the outcome of the referendum, as well as an uptick in religious and ethnic violence. On Sunday, residents of Nzerekore claimed assailants attacked mosques and churches. Internationally, Guinea represents a potential geopolitical flashpoint. While the United States and European Union urged Conde to respect his term limits, China, which imports more than half of its bauxite from Guinea, has remained quiet. 

Boko Haram offensive: Nearly 100 Chadian soldiers were killed in a seven-hour attack on Sunday, which the country’s president has called the “deadliest ever.” Multiple army vehicles were destroyed in the Lake Chad area, while militants carried off a cache of weapons in speedboats. It came a day after at least 50 Nigerian soldiers were killed in an ambush by Boko Haram near the northern town of Goneri.

  • Watch for: The latest attack is part of an expanding Boko Haram campaign in the Lake Chad area, which is located between Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon. Chad’s president visited the site Tuesday and said the areas defenses had been seriously damaged. The Nigerian ambush has been described as a huge setback for the Nigerian Army, which had just launched a large scale offensive against the group.

U.S. Census: As of March 21, approximately 17 percent of U.S. households had responded to the 2020 Census, as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to upend field operations.

Coronavirus resources:

What we're looking at as we cover the outbreak

Johns Hopkins outbreak map: Map is updated regularly and shows cases worldwide

COVID Tracking Project: Information on U.S. cases and death tolls

WHO Twitter: Includes live streams of daily press briefings 

WHO Twitter list of health journalists: Nearly 100 journalists covering the outbreak and other health news

CDCPublic Health Agency of CanadaSanté Publique France: Information on how to protect yourself, plus other community resources

Factal coronavirus feed

Live blogs: El Pais (Spain), BFM TV (France), Guardian (UK), Washington Post (US), Agenzia ANZA (Italy), Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), Fars (Iran), G1 (Brazil)

Extended outlook:

What’s on our radar in the coming weeks

April 1: Census Day

April 4Alaska and Hawaii Democratic primaries; Wyoming Democratic caucuses

April 7: Wisconsin primaries

April 13Syrian parliamentary elections

April 15: South Korea National Assembly election

April 28: New York primary

May 2: Guam Democratic caucus, Kansas Democratic primary

May 3Bolivia general election

May 12Nebraska and West Virginia primaries

May 19: Oregon primaries

May 20Burundi presidential election

June 2: DC, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and South Dakota primaries

June 6: Virgin Islands Democratic caucuses

June 20Louisiana primary

June 23: Kentucky primary

July 13: Democratic National Convention

Our members can subscribe to our full editorial calendar. Please email us at members@factal.com for access.

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