LFI Key Issues: Netanyahu-Gantz talks go down to the wire

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Analysis: Netanyahu-Gantz talks go down to the wire
LFI News and Campaigns: Watch our video about LFI's work
This Week: Warning of coronavirus spike in Arab towns as Israel cases rise to 12,000; Number of Palestinian coronavirus cases tops 300 amid row over incitement; Hamas and Israel engaged in indirect prisoner exchange talks
Essential Reading: Israel's many coronavirus exit strategies fail to address its most basic failure; After a promising start as Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer deserves to be taken seriously; Leaked report shows bitter Labour party splits; Pro-Israel US group warns Israeli leaders annexation would damage alliance; Hamas arrests Gaza peace activists for Zoom chat with Israelis; Israel to play key role in giant Google fiber optic cable project; From Stephen De Wijze to Matthew Levitt, Fathom writers share their favourite books and films
Tweet of the Week: The BDS founder who has "no problem" cooperating with Israel if it helps develop a coronavirus cure

Analysis
Netanyahu-Gantz talks go down to the wire

The roller-coaster path to the formation of a new Israeli government took new twists and turns over the last week, with Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz today locked in last-ditch negotiations ahead of a midnight deadline.

Gantz’s 28-day mandate to form a government – issued to him by President Reuven Rivlin last month after the country’s third inconclusive general election in less than a year – formally expired on Monday night.

The former IDF chief – who fought Netanyahu to a virtual draw in elections held in April 2019, September 2019 and on 2 March – was refused permission by the president on Sunday to have the mandate extended by a further 14 days. The request was turned down, Rivlin’s office said, because Netanyahu had told the president that the two men were not close to signing an agreement on forming an emergency unity government.

However, after a televised address on Monday night in which he offered the stark choice between “an emergency national unity government and a redundant fourth election”, Gantz met again with Netanyahu. The two men later issued a statement saying they had made “significant progress” in their talks. On the back of that statement, Rivlin then granted them a further 48 hours. The president’s office made clear, however, that the two-day extension to Gantz’s mandate, which expires tonight, had been agreed “on the understanding that they are very close to reaching an agreement between them”.

A unity government is expected to see a “rotation” of the premiership with Netanyahu serving as prime minister for the first 18 months of the government, before passing the baton to Gantz to serve the second half its term. Such an arrangement is not unprecedented: Labor and Likud shared power in the mid-1980s with Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir each leading the government for two years.

Rivlin has already indicated that, if the current negotiations fail, he will not pass the mandate to Netanyahu and give him 28 days to form a government. That decision is based on the fact that the prime minister currently has the backing of only 59 MKs. Instead, the president would shift the decision to the Knesset. It would have 21 days in which any member of parliament able to win the support of 61 – a majority – of his or her colleagues would be granted the mandate to attempt to assemble a government. If no MK wins that backing, Israel would be forced into a fourth election.

Gantz stunned the political world two weeks ago when he announced he was planning to go into government with Netanyahu, despite repeated pledges not to do a deal with the prime minister, who is due to appear in court later next month on multiple corruption charges.

The move led to the collapse of the Blue and White alliance – a coalition of three centrist parties formed early last year – as his erstwhile allies, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and Telem head Moshe Ya’alon, denounced the apparent end of Gantz’s efforts to eject Netanyahu from effort. After the 2 March election, Gantz had won the backing to become prime minister of a narrow majority of MKs. But, though united in their opposition to Netanyahu, the coalition supporting him – which ranged from anti-Zionist parties of the Arab-Israeli Joint List to the right-wing nationalist former defence minister Avigdor Liberman – proved too disparate to form a government. Nonetheless, until Gantz’s abrupt about-turn, the opposition parties had been poised to seize control of the Knesset’s agenda and pass legislation preventing an individual facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. The move – which would have brought the rules for the prime minister into line with other ministers – would have effectively excluded Netanyahu from office. Although that legislation has been tabled, it was effectively stilled when, with the backing of Netanyahu and his allies, Gantz was elected as Knesset speaker. The speaker controls the Knesset timetable and, before Gantz threw his lot in with the prime minister, the opposition parties had succeeded in ejecting Likud MK Yuli Edelstein from the post.

The threat that he may use his position as speaker to allow the opposition to advance this legislative process remains one of the few – if highly potent – weapons that Gantz has left in his armoury as he negotiates with Netanyahu.

Judicial appointments key

Despite cries of betrayal from much of the Israeli left, Gantz and Netanyahu had appeared close to sealing a coalition deal last week. However, the talks broke down when the prime minister made a last-minute demand that his Likud party should have greater control of judicial appointments. Under Netanyahu, the Israeli right has repeatedly accused the courts of being controlled by a left-leaning elite which seeks to impose its own agenda in place of the democratic will of the people.

Netanyahu had previously agreed that Gantz's party would run the justice ministry and that his own Likud party would not have a seat on the powerful judicial appointments committee. The issue is vital to Gantz. Having broken his promise not to serve under him, the opposition leader needs to show that the prime minister and his allies will not be able to manipulate the courts to escape his corruption trial.

That apparent pothole in the road to an agreement has been supplemented in recent days by a growing fear on Netanyahu’s part that Israel’s Supreme Court will wait until he and Gantz have inked their deal and then rule that he cannot serve as prime minister while facing criminal charges. Such a ruling would leave Gantz heading the government for its entire term. Gantz and Netanyahu have thus reportedly discussed inserting a clause into the coalition agreement which would automatically dissolve the Knesset and trigger elections if the court sought to block Netanyahu continuing in office. Referring to previous attempts by Netanyahu – which were fiercely condemned at the time by Gantz – to halt the judicial proceedings against him while he remained prime minister, Lapid attacked the notion of such a clause. “This has a name. It’s called an immunity law,” he suggested.

Competing pressures and changing political calculations

Netanyahu’s manouvering reflects a mix of competing pressures and changing political calculations. On the one hand, the pro-settler Yamina party which is part of his right-wing bloc is particularly exercised about judicial “over-reach” and is believed to be considering quitting the government and returning to the opposition benches. Although this would not impact the numbers needed to form. unity government, Netanyahu will fear the prospect of being outflanked on the right.

On the other, the wily Netanyahu has a long history of co-opting and then neutering political opponents. He will be acutely aware that – boosted by his handling of the coronavirus crisis – Likud is surging in the polls. A new Channel 12 poll this week showed that, if elections were held today, the party would jump from 36 to 40 seats. Blue and White, meanwhile, would slump from 33 to 19. Overall, Netanyahu and his right-wing allies would have a clear majority in the Knesset with 64 seats.

The poll also showed that Labor would lose its three Knesset seats. The party, which had indicated a willingness to follow Gantz into a unity government with Netanyahu in return for control of key socio-economic ministries, has formally separated from the left-wing Meretz party, with which it ran on a joint slate in the March elections. Meretz refuses to countenance any agreement with the prime minister. On Monday, Labor told Rivlin that it would not recommend Netanyahu becoming prime minister and would only join a unity government along with Gantz. “We won’t betray Gantz and our camp,” Labor MK Itzik Shmuli suggested. “Bibi [Netanyahu] has to decide if he wants to face the coronavirus and its harsh repercussions together or alone. We won’t be the sixty-first vote that allows him to evade justice and harm the rule of law in return for a job.” That Likud has apparently been seeking to woo opposition parties, and potential defectors from Gantz’s own ranks, in the event of unity government negotiations breaking down underlines the prime minister’s political ruthlessness.

As Haaretz columnist Yossi Verter noted this week: “It is unnecessary to remind Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi of what tribal elders like Avigdor Lieberman, Dan Meridor, Ehud Barak and others told them: You should never buy a used car from Netanyahu. You should not even buy a brand new one, still wrapped up in plastic with zero miles on the odometer and the intoxicating smell of new leather upholstery. Fraud and breach of trust are not just what he is accused of; for Netanyahu they are a way of life.”

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This Week

Warning of coronavirus spike in Arab towns as Israel cases rise to 12,000
Israel's Health Ministry warned of a spike in coronavirus cases in Arab towns in the north of the country on Wednesday, and asked residents to remain indoors while contact tracing was carried out. There have been 31 cases in the towns of Deir al-Asad (pictured), Nahf, Bi'ina and Majd al-Krum. A drive through testing facility - agreed between Joint List MK Ahmed Tibi and the Magen David Adom (Israel's national emergency medical service) - opened in Deir al-Asad on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the government extended the lockdown on the ultra-Orthodox city of Bnei Brak, a coronavirus hotspot, and extended the curfew on Jerusalem neighbourhoods with a high infection rate. As of Wednesday, 12,200 Israelis have tested positive for the coronavirus and 126 have died. Fourteen of the fatalities are residents of a Be'er Sheva nursing home. Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, has twice apologised after breaking the government's social distancing rules by hosting his daughter and her children over the Passover holiday at his Jerusalem residence. "You were angry with me this week about a wrong decision I made and had no justification," the president tweeted. He also posted a shot of him talking with his family remotely.
Read full article

Number of Palestinian coronavirus cases tops 300 amid row over incitement
The number of Palestinians infected with the coronavirus has risen to 305. The news came amid a row between Israel and the Palestinian Authority after Ramallah accused the Jewish state of intentionally spreading the coronavirus in the West Bank. The PA Health Ministry lists on its website the cause of the confirmed Palestinian coronavirus cases in the West Bank as "the occupation state". Israel accused the PA of incitement. On Monday, Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh responded: "We will not bow to blackmail in any form." The PA charges stem from the fact that, according to Israel's Channel 12, the source of contagion of nearly 75 percent of cases that have tested positive for coronavirus in the PA has been traced to Palestinian workers employed in Israel. PA government spokesman Ibrahim Melhem claimed on Monday: "They [the Israelis] are not only exporting [the virus]. They are agents of this virus." Israel last month prevented all but essential Palestinian workers from entering the country. Such workers were stopped from commuting, with their employers required to provide them with accommodation. The UN has praised the cooperation between Israel and the PA to tackle the virus. Read full article

Hamas and Israel engaged in indirect prisoner exchange talks
Israel and Hamas are engaged in indirect negotiations over a prisoner exchange deal, it has been reported. The talks, negotiated by Egyptian mediators, are said to have seen the Gaza-based terror group hand over a list of 250 prisoners it wants to see released from Israeli prisons. In return for the release, Hamas would provide information about the fate of two Israelis - Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed - who are said to being held in Gaza. It would also hand over the remains of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 Gaza war - Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul (pitcured) - whose bodies it has held hostage. While the Egyptians are believed to be stepping up their efforts, Israel is reported to be "tepid" about the potential deal. Hamas has denied reports that it was attempting to link the prisoner exchange deal to the delivery of humanitarian aid by Israel to Gaza, specifically ventilators required to treat coronavirus patients. Separately, Israel's public broadcaster, Kan, reported last weekend that dozens of nurses, physicians and other medical personnel from the Gaza Strip have been trained in techniques to treat coronavirus patients at Ashkelon's Barzilai Medical Centre and at the Erez crossing between Israel and Gaza. Read full article

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