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With the latest COVID-19 model now predicting that Florida will reach its peak on May 6, we took a closer look at some of the critical public health metrics in Tampa Bay, to better understand the impact of a potential surge.
Here's what we found.
Based on recent modeling, and at its current capacity levels, it appears that Tampa Bay would likely have sufficient regional resources to manage peak COVID-19 case levels. But some areas of the region may be at greater risk.
COVID-19 Testing
Widespread testing will be key to understanding the full extent of the pandemic, and eventually reopening the economy.
- More than 35,000 COVID-19 tests have been administered in Tampa Bay, with over 60% of the tests conducted in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.
- This disproportionate testing may suggest a greater risk of underdiagnosis in counties such as Manatee, Polk and Sarasota.
COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths
Knowing when, where and how severely the virus is taking hold can help us measure and accelerate the flattening of the curve.
- Positive COVID-19 cases are concentrated among Tampa Bay’s older adults, less prevalent among its young, and generally adhere to the overall population distribution for ages 75 and up.
- Residents of Manatee and Sarasota counties may be more likely than the average Tampa Bay resident to have the coronavirus, and less likely to have been tested for it.
- Manatee and Sarasota counties, with a combined population roughly half that of Hillsborough, have seen a near equal count of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
- Tampa Bay counties with older and undertested populations account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 deaths.
Regional Healthcare System Capacity
Having a complete picture of our regional resources could allow us to more effectively manage an influx of patients throughout Tampa Bay.
- Tampa Bay’s hospital capacity has largely remained above 40% (with an estimated 5,000 available beds) since April 3, indicating that COVID-19 related inpatient medical care has not yet spiked in Tampa Bay.
- Tampa Bay’s ICU capacity has held steady at roughly 35% (with an estimated 500 available beds) since April 3, but capacity is trending down in recent days, and smaller counties are seeing larger fluctuations.
Keep reading to learn more.
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Analyzing the data on a regional level provides valuable context to the pandemic experience of each individual county.
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We started by taking a look at our overall population distribution. Tampa Bay is home to 4.8 million residents. More than half (51%) of our regional population is concentrated in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.
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More than 35,000 COVID-19 tests have been administered in Tampa Bay, with over 60% of the tests conducted in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. This disproportionate testing may suggest a greater risk of underdiagnosis in counties such as Manatee, Polk and Sarasota.
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While Hillsborough and Pinellas account for 51% of the population, 60% of regional tests (more than 21,400 of 35,555) have been administered in these two counties. At the other end of the testing spectrum, counties such as Manatee, Polk and Sarasota have seen relatively fewer tests administered than their population would suggest. This, in and of itself, is not a true disparity, as CDC and Florida Department of Health guidelines suggest only select individuals be tested. However, as cases can only be confirmed via a test, the disproportionate testing may suggest a greater risk of underdiagnosis. Manatee and Sarasota, in particular, are home to a proportionately larger share of individuals age 65 and over (a respective 26.5% and 36.5%) who, if symptomatic, are a higher priority for testing.
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COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths
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Positive COVID-19 cases are concentrated among Tampa Bay’s older adults, less prevalent among its young, and generally adhere to the overall population distribution for ages 75 and up.
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In Tampa Bay, residents between the ages of 45 to 74 number 1.9 million and account for 39.3% of the population. However, this age range comprises 1,200 (or 50.8% of) COVID-19 cases in the region. This skewed distribution of cases is mostly counterweighed by residents between the ages of 0 to 24, who number 1.3 million and account for 26.7% of the population, while comprising only 231 (or 9.8% of) cases. At the upper reaches of the age distribution – residents age 75 and older – the case distribution by age is a near mirror reflection, as the share of population in this age group is 10.6% (nearly 512,000 residents) and the share of diagnosed cases is 10.9% (258 cases).
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Residents of Manatee and Sarasota counties may be more likely to have the coronavirus than the average Tampa Bay resident, and less likely to have been tested for it.
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Having examined the region’s counties by population and testing share, the distribution of case data provides another lens to observe the spread of the pandemic and its potential effect on healthcare delivery. In doing so, we found that Tampa Bay’s confirmed COVID-19 cases do not clearly align with distribution of population or testing, especially in the southern part of the region. Three counties are home to a larger share of confirmed cases (totaling 2,356 as of April 13) than their share of population: Hillsborough (+5%), Manatee (+3%) and Sarasota (+1%). Similarly, two counties are home to a larger share of confirmed cases than their share of tests: Manatee (+6%), and Sarasota (+3%). In other words, individuals in Manatee and Sarasota counties may be more likely than the typical Tampa Bay resident to have the coronavirus, despite the fact that testing has been less prevalent in these communities.
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Sarasota and Manatee counties, with a combined population roughly half that of Hillsborough, have seen a near equal count of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
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Of the 500 COVID-19 hospitalizations that have occurred in Tampa Bay through April 13, Hillsborough’s 129 outpace the other communities in the region and account for 26% of the total. In that same period, Sarasota (77) and Manatee (49), have nearly equaled that amount, with 126 coronavirus-related hospitalizations. This is despite the fact that these two counties collectively account for just 17% of the population, compared to Hillsborough’s 30%, and further underscored by the relatively low prevalence of testing described earlier. The volatility of available hospital and ICU beds in these smaller counties makes it even more important to observe the COVID-19 trends closely.
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Tampa Bay counties with relatively older populations, as well as the relatively undertested, account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 deaths.
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Through April 13, seventy-nine Tampa Bay residents have succumbed to COVID-19. These deaths, by and large, have occurred in the counties with a relatively large share of the population age 65+. Citrus, Manatee and Sarasota have combined for 56% of regional coronavirus deaths, despite representing just 20% of the population, 15% of administered tests, 24% of confirmed cases and 30% of hospitalizations.
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Regional Healthcare System Capacity
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The region’s hospitals have consistently maintained over 5,000 available beds since April 3, indicating that COVID-19 related inpatient medical care has not yet spiked in Tampa Bay.
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The number of Tampa Bay’s available hospital beds has remained relatively flat over the period from April 3 to present, signaling stability in the face of a potential influx of coronavirus-related hospitalizations. Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties account for 53% of total hospital beds in the region, and to date, they have accounted for an average daily census approaching 54% of total occupied beds. This data is evidence that coronavirus-related inpatient medical care – at least through present – has not spiked in the region’s two most populous counties.
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Tampa Bay’s hospital capacity has largely remained above 40% since April 3, but Hillsborough is trending below the region, and Manatee and Sarasota are showing greater signs of volatility.
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On a daily basis, Tampa Bay’s regional hospital capacity has fluctuated between a low of 38.8% (April 7) and a high of 43.4% (April 11), showing relatively low volatility in the ability of our hospitals to admit patients on the basis of bed availability. However, Manatee and Sarasota counties have seen their capacity figure drop to the low 30% level in the period examined. While Manatee rebounded within a relatively short period to near 50% capacity, Sarasota continues to maintain an average of 35% capacity in the period examined. Hillsborough’s hospital capacity, while stable, is consistently trending below the region.
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Tampa Bay has maintained about 500 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds since early April, but the availability can be volatile at any given moment, and it’s trending down in recent days.
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Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds account for a much smaller share of hospital capacity, and as such, are subject to the larger fluctuations relative to availability and capacity. Through the period for which the Agency for Healthcare Administration (AHCA) has provided data, Tampa Bay’s count of available ICU beds, on a daily basis, has ranged from a low of 429 (April 7) to a high of 581 (April 8). Notably, this 152-bed swing – driven by an increase in beds in Manatee County – occurred in a 24-hour period, demonstrating the volatility of ICU bed availability at a given moment. While the availability over the measured period has averaged around 500 beds, availability in more recent days has remained in the 400s.
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Tampa Bay has maintained a regional capacity of ICU beds of roughly 35% since early April, but smaller counties are experiencing larger fluctuations.
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Relatively smaller counties, with fewer ICU beds – including Citrus, Hernando and Manatee – have seen larger fluctuations in the number of available beds. Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, which are home to roughly 53.5% of all ICU beds in the region, have generally seen smaller fluctuations in capacity.
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COVID-19 Case Data is from the Executive Office of the Governor of Florida, Florida Division of Emergency Management. Data was measured for the period of March 20-April 13, 2020.
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Hospital/ICU Bed Capacity Data is from the Executive Office of the Governor of Florida, Agency for Health Care Administration. Data was measured for the period of April 3-13, 2020.
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On Monday, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest update, projecting a peak in fatal coronavirus cases in Florida on May 6, with 128 deaths per day. At that time, it’s estimated that Florida would need 4,076 total hospital beds and 1,081 ICU beds. This could indicate that, at its current capacity levels, Tampa Bay would likely have sufficient regional resources to manage peak COVID-19 case levels.
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