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Today's Topics

Today we explore:

How are people coping with lockdown? We're back with part 2 of our exploration of Google's data that reveals how we're all living differently.
Harry Potter is a classic candidate for a rewatch at the moment - but which characters got the most screen time?
Wages and productivity have been diverging for years, why?

We loved your responses (and suggestions) to our first set of quarantine queries, so we decided to make another using the data from Google trends to map out 9 other ways we're all living differently.

First up you've got the "what is zoom" crowd, who now make up part of the 200 million user base of the company that just a few months ago had only 10 million users. Or maybe they're not part of the user base, maybe they never worked it out.

The "bars near me" folks have started googling "wine delivery" and the people who want a puzzle may also be digging out their old copy of the sims -- hoping to lead an exciting virtual life if they can't lead an exciting actual life.

Meanwhile, the "gym membership" people have quietly taken up online yoga, online fashion has undoubtedly taken a hit, as no-one is after a hot outfit for a date, and pretty much no-one is searching for a "weekend getaway", despite probably wanting one more than ever.

Some honourable mentions that didn't make the chart: people no longer searching for bus or train timetables, people looking to buy a desk, people no longer wanting to buy a suitcase and people searching for how to watch Harry Potter...

For a lot of people Harry Potter is the ultimate in childhood nostalgia and comfort -- so it makes sense that it's one of the series that a lot of people are rewatching during quarantine. So we're hitting pause on the corona-content for a minute to dive into the world of HP.

I solemnly swear that I am up to no good...

We've plotted the number of mentions from the Harry Potter books against the screen time of those characters from all 8 movies to see which characters were relatively promoted during the transition from book to film, and which were a little bit left behind.

The first observation to make is that the film adaptations did a pretty stellar job. Most of the main characters are pretty close to this line of best fit, suggesting the producers stayed relatively faithful to the books -- probably because of how personally involved JK Rowling was in the making of the films.

That said, some did come off better. In the books Lucius Malfoy was mentioned 249 times, which according to our simple model, should have equated to about 6 minutes of screen time. Instead he got more than 15. Another member of the Malfoy clan, Narcissa, also punched above her weight, while many of the Weasley family (Bill, Percy & Molly) weren't so lucky (did the Malfoys pay JK Rowling off?).

This chart shows the 100 most mentioned characters that had at least 1 minute of screen time, but many didn't make it into the films at all. Ludo Bagman, who racked up about 250 mentions in the books as the head of the Department of Magical Games and Sports, never made the cut. Neither does Peeves (ghost), Winky (Crouch family elf) or Charlie Weasley (except for about 2 seconds in a photo of the family).

Mad-Eye Moody is also hard done by the movies. But that's only [Spoilers] because we think his screen time is technically attributed to Barty Crouch Jr, who was pretending to be him for most of the Goblet of Fire. Overall though the data suggests a pretty decent adaptation of over 4200 pages of source material. Mischief managed.

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The last few weeks of quarantine have probably made us all more grateful for technology than ever before, but rapid technological progress does come with unintended consequences.

Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals an interesting trend from the last 45 years. The amount of "stuff" produced in the US per hour (what an economist would call productivity) has gone up almost 120% since 1975, but the real compensation of workers has only gone up by a little over 50%. You might expect these two things to move more closely together, and before 1975 that was indeed the case. So what's going on?

The first thing to say is that this is a really complicated topic, and we're only skimming the surface here by discussing the impact of technology, when in reality globalisation, bargaining power, minimum wages, public policy and legislation all impact how wages are determined.

The robots are coming

As technology progresses tasks that were once done by a human can be replaced with a machine or a piece of software. In its simplest sense, this is a very good thing. We've freed up a factory worker to go and pursue their dreams, and the new car they want to buy is cheaper because it was made by a robot that can work more productively for 24 hours a day.

However, if retraining is difficult, or competition in that industry is scarce, then the company may simply reap all of the benefits of the innovation, resulting in a transfer of income from labour to capital owners. Indeed, studies consistently offer evidence that technological change decouples wages from productivity (OECD).

We mean to make no overt political point with this chart, but hope that it stimulates some helpful debate at a time when many jobs often deemed "lower-skill" now seem absolutely essential to our survival.

Finally, a study from Mckinsey suggests that "about half of all the activities people are paid to do in the world’s workforce could potentially be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies". Automation is coming, and if we manage it properly it could be wonderful for millions of people. If.

Data Snacks

1) Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has announced his intention to donate $1bn to help fight COVID-19, tracking his donations in a Google spreadsheet.

2) A US mental health helpline has seen its call volume increase 9x year-on-year as quarantine takes its toll.

3) UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has now spent 2 consecutive nights in intensive care.

4) Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million people, has ended its lockdown after 76 days.

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6) Despite criticisms of his initial response to coronavirus Donald Trump appears to have had a small bump in the polls, with his net approval rating improving from around -11% to around -5%.

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