GEM TOPIQS Newsletter May-Jun 2020

GEM partners with Nasdaq and AIR Worldwide to provide earthquake risk models to the financial risk management sector

GEM is pleased to announce its partnerships with Nasdaq and AIR Worldwide, which are expected to pave the way for GEM Foundation’s seismic hazard and risk models to become available via the Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes and AIR Touchstone platforms. GEM’s OpenQuake models will be rendered into their respective OASIS LMF format, an open-source format developed by OASIS LMF, and Touchstone format using AIR’s Model Builder. The resulting models will support financial risk analysis including (re)insurance portfolios. Nasdaq and AIR will act as non-exclusive distributors of GEM models to their customers.
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GEM: 10 years of OpenQuake Engine (OQ)
Last July 21st 2020 marked the 10th year anniversary of GEM’s flagship product – the OpenQuake Engine, a state-of-the-art, and open seismic hazard and risk analysis software. This would not have been possible without the generous support and commitment of its users, our public and private sponsors, project partners and academic collaborators from around the world. Read More >>

Since 2014, the papers OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard and Risk Software for the Global Earthquake Model and Development of the OpenQuake engine, and the Global Earthquake Model's open-source software for seismic risk assessment have been cited more than 450 times by peer-reviewed studies and conference proceedings, helping advance seismic hazard and risk science globally. The papers have been cited from more than 70 countries around the world (refer to the global map above.)

Governing Board meeting highlights

The Governing Board meeting was held from June 17 -19, 2020 virtually. This is the first virtual meeting organized by the GEM Secretariat in its 11 years of operation due to the... | Read more >>

Potential Impact of Earthquakes during a Pandemic

The threat of an earthquake occurring during a pandemic is very real, and can pose a problematic management of COVID-19 cases and health emergencies. The occurrence of... | Read more >>

GEM stakeholder survey preliminary results

GEM completed the first leg of its stakeholder survey conducted from May 29th to June 11th 2020. GEM received a total of 80 responses (OQ, 22 and Global Maps, 58) from at... | Read more >>

TREQ project trains participants online on OpenQuake

The TREQ project team successfully conducted online OpenQuake training workshops. The training comprises two modules: one for ground motion generation, one for... | Read more >>

Willis and GEM to work together on new project by ADB

GEM has started a new project “Developing a Disaster Risk Transfer Facility in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Region” supported by the ADB... | Read more >>

GEM and EdF to work on probabilistic safety assessment

GEM is set to start a 3-year project called METIS or Methods and Tools Innovation for Seismic Risk Assessment funded by the European Commission. The project is part of the Safe... | Read more >>

In this story, Earthquake Risk Modelling: a bridge between knowledge and action, GEM interviewed Murray Journeay of Geological Survey of Canada to get to know his insights, perspectives on the impact of GEM on earthquake risk model development in Canada. (Photo credit: Jill Dobkin)

“GEM is a change agent in many ways – the most important are the principles on which it's based- the open collaborative nature of GEM is a game changer I think in the field of earthquake risk modeling...” - Murray Journeay | Read more >>

GEM moves to boost the availability of its Products and Services to a wider range of stakeholders

Exposure model for European seismic risk assessment
Crowley, H. et al. provides details of the development of the first versions of the European exposure model that describe the distribution of the main residential, industrial and commercial building classes across all countries in Europe, as well as their occupants and replacement costs. The v0.1 of the European exposure model has been integrated within the Global Earthquake Model’s global exposure and risk maps. Preliminary analyses using the model show that almost 35% of the residential population in Europe is exposed to a 475-year return period peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard of at least 0.1 g, thus highlighting the importance of European seismic risk modeling and mitigation.

GEM's contributions focus on taxonomy and exposure of residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Europe; physical vulnerability assessment for buildings; integrated earthquake risk analysis using the risk assessment framework and OpenQuake software developed by the GEM.

Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
GEM’s Vitor Silva is a co-author in this paper that explores the possible impact that earthquakes can have on the city of Santiago in Chile from various potential near-field and distant earthquake sources. The study uses high-resolution stereo satellite imagery and imagery-derived digital elevation models to accurately map the trace of the San Ramón Fault, a recently recognized active fault located along the eastern margins of the city; and scenario-based seismic-risk analysis to compare and contrast the estimated damage and losses to the city from several potential earthquake sources and one past event.

The study finds that there is a strong magnitude–distance trade-off in terms of damage and losses to the city, with smaller magnitude earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6–7.5 on more local faults producing 9 to 17 times more damage to the city and estimated fatalities compared to the great magnitude 8+ earthquakes located offshore in the subduction zone. The calculations for this part of Chile show that unreinforced-masonry structures are the most vulnerable to these types of earthquake shaking.

Application of open tools and datasets probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage
This study, led by GEM’s Catarina Costa analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network.

The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily.

The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well‐known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.

Seismology, Global Earthquake Model
GEM has contributed an article to the new edition of Seismology, Global Earthquake Model - in the Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics edited by Harsh K. Gupta and distributed by Springer Link. The new edition was released on July 10, 2020. The article presents a general overview of GEM from its foundation to present day. It discusses GEM’s scientific and institutional frameworks; milestones and scientific products; and current status. The paper then gives a glimpse into future opportunities to address more complex risk issues, and to collaborate more extensively with other communities to make OpenQuake tools and models useful for multi-hazard risk assessment.

Nasdaq press release: Nasdaq Adds The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) to its Risk Modelling Service
Nasdaq (NDAQ) announced that The Global Earthquake Model (GEM), a leading non-profit, public-private partnership for earthquake risk information, has become the latest catastrophe risk model provider to offer its range of models via the Nasdaq Risk Modelling service. The Colombia earthquake model will be the first of GEM’s models available through the service.

The event will be led by SRSG Mami Mizutori (UNDRR), Dr. Heide Hackmann (ISC), Prof. Virginia Murray (Public Health England and Chair of the working group), and members of the Technical Working Group. The event will present the report findings and discuss next steps. Register to participate in the event.

Join the GEM Foundation webinar: An overview of 10 years of OpenQuake on September 23, 2020 1400 - 1730 CET. This year marks the 10th year anniversary of GEM’s flagship product – the OpenQuake engine, a state-of-the-art, open seismic hazard and risk analysis software.

Artificial intelligence in seismology: Advent, performance and future trends
In this focus paper, authors provide an overview of the recent AI studies in seismology and evaluate the performance of the major AI techniques including machine learning and deep learning in seismic data analysis. Furthermore, the authors envision the future direction of the AI methods in earthquake engineering which will involve deep learning-enhanced seismology in an internet-of-things (IoT) platform.

Earthquake Risk in Taiwan 100 Years After Hualien
AIR’s Stelios Minas article looks back at the 1920 Hualien earthquake, a devastating M8.1 event (recently revised to Mw7.8) and the largest temblor ever recorded instrumentally in Taiwan. Stelios also notes the seismic activity in Taiwan in the last century.

Continuing Business Operations After an Earthquake
Depending on an earthquake’s magnitude, a seismic event can damage business facilities and curtail power, transportation and communications networks. If the disruption persists for a long period of time, the impact on business revenue can be devastating.

To mitigate such dire outcomes, a company’s disaster plan should account for worst-case scenarios, beginning with a facility’s physical vulnerability to earthquake damage. The plan also must consider the impact of the event on the functions and processes performed by employees, and the ability of suppliers and other vendors to ship parts and provide services.

Injection-Induced Seismic Risk Management Using Machine Learning Methodology – A Perspective Study
In recent years, machine learning, an advanced inductive and analytical method, has been widely used in seismology. In this paper, the authors review research gaps associated with the identification and management of induced seismicity, as well as the current achievements of machine learning in addressing induced seismicity problems to meet the increasing needs for safe mining of energy at production sites.

How medieval Europe recovered from earthquakes
Earthquakes were a cause of devastation in medieval Europe. The 1117 earthquake in northern Italy hit what was possibly the most densely populated area in Europe at the time. An earthquake in 1456 in southern Italy caused total or almost complete destruction over an area of about 6000km² and claimed around 30,000 lives.

Paolo Forlin with Chris Gerrard and others at Durham University (Risk and resilience: exploring historic responses to earthquakes in Europe: 1200-1755) shows that medieval societies in Europe developed complex responses to seismic disasters. Communities affected by seismic activity were able to put strategies in place that often resemble modern risk management, organized around relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and forward planning.

Insurance against earthquake risks — recent developments and future challenges
This paper by Klime Poposki, University St. Kliment Ohridski, Faculty of Tourism and Organizational Sciences, Ohrid, Macedonia addresses the protection gap for extreme events by focusing on natural catastrophe ('nat cat') perils, and specifically by analyzing the property insurance market.

A key contribution of this paper is identifying the specific challenges for increasing the availability and take-up of earthquake insurance, including the significant potential for severe, correlated losses from earthquake, the challenges in quantifying earthquake exposure and the limited willingness-to-pay for insurance coverage among households and businesses. It provides an overview of measures that can be implemented to reduce the size of expected losses and facilitate the purchase of insurance coverage.

Earthquake safety: retrofitting homes and planning for multiple risks in Puerto Rico and communities at risk
In April 2020, Enterprise hosted a webinar entitled, “Why is Puerto Rico Shaking? How to Keep Homes and Communities Safe from Earthquakes,” which was attended by more than 1,400 participants from throughout Puerto Rico and around the world.

The webinar available on Facebook, offered practical information on resilient housing design and construction, including:

TOP STORY

GEM partners with Nasdaq and AIR Worldwide to provide earthquake risk models to the financial risk management sector