Tuesday, December 18, 2018

U.S., Ukraine Press Europe to Increase Russia Sanctions 

U.S. and Ukrainian officials called for tougher measures against Russia on Monday over its seizing of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea last month. The incident caused Kiev to declare martial law but drew little more than condemnations from Western capitals. Speaking to reporters Monday afternoon, Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative for Ukraine, advocated, at a minimum, for targeted sanctions against certain Russian officials. Ukraine Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman backed combining those measures with broader economic sanctions.
 
The European Union, which is set to extend long standing economic sanctions against Russia by another six months, has so far taken no action on the incident, which U.S. officials described as a reckless escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The EU imposed its sanctions in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea and Sebastopol, but deep divisions within the bloc over its Russia policy have limited further significant pressure. EU powerhouses Germany and France have hesitated to increase European pressure on Russia over the incident, with European diplomats saying their focus was on the release of Ukraine’s sailors and the easing of tensions. EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini said Monday the bloc was looking at fresh ways to help Ukraine’s economy after disbursing half a billion euros of new loans to Kiev last week. Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Hill
 
 

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The cryptocurrency-terrorism connection is too big to ignore: “Cryptocurrency has come to terrorism, with an array of terrorist organizations exploiting the anonymity afforded by blockchain technology for fundraising and finances, yet U.S. counterterrorism officials appear to have been slow to grasp the extent the problem,” writes Steven Stalinsky in the Washington Post  “More leadership from those working worldwide against terrorist fundraising is urgently needed. It should not take a major terrorist attack, planned on an encrypted apps and financed with cryptocurrency, to get their attention.”
 
Don’t tear up this treaty: “Although the pantheon of arms control agreements isn’t perfect — not surprising given the complexity of the weapons systems and the calculations involved in balancing risk —  they have enabled the United States and Russia for decades to manage their strategic competition without going to war,” writes the editorial board of the New York Times. “But unilaterally abrogating one of the most consequential arms agreements in history would be dangerous and cause new tensions with European allies who are already skeptical of Mr. Trump’s commitments to the continent’s security and don’t want the United States to abandon the treaty.”
 
A false choice on Saudi Arabia: Sanctioning Riyadh’s military-intelligence sectors is a workable option: “The Trump administration’s current appeasement of MBS is dangerously emboldening Riyadh and other authoritarians abroad. America should be sending precisely the opposite message: that, whether friend, foe, or something in between, engaging in brutal human rights violations will prompt serious repercussions from Washington,” writes Joshua Geltzer  in Just Security.  “Specifically, Congress should pass legislation requiring the administration to impose ‘sectoral sanctions on Saudi Arabia focused on the defense and intelligence elements of the country’s economy.”

China’s hybrid warfare against Taiwan: The specter of war across the Taiwan Strait has animated military planners since 1949, when Gen. Chiang Kai-shek fled here with his nationalist army after the Communist Party gained control of mainland China,” writes David Ignatius in the Washington Post.  “But traditional military combat may be the least of Taiwan’s worries. More immediate, and potentially threatening, is the daily campaign to undermine Taiwan’s democracy and promote fealty to Beijing.”
 

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Former Michael Flynn business associates indicted in Turkey lobbying case: Two former business associates of Michael Flynn, President Trump’s former national security adviser, have been indicted as part of a federal investigation into Turkey’s 2016 lobbying campaign to pressure the United States to expel Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, a rival of President Erdogan. Charges against the two former associates, Bijan Kian and Ekim Alptekin, were unsealed on Monday in an Alexandria courtroom. The two men were indicted last week as part of a conspiracy to violate federal lobbying rules, and Alptekin was also charged with making false statements to FBI investigators.
 
The indictment also demonstrates the extent to which Flynn was secretly working to advance the interests of his Turkish clients while publicly serving as a key surrogate to then-candidate Trump. According to the newly unsealed court document, Flynn was texting and emailing frequently about how to advance the Turkish agenda throughout the final weeks of the presidential campaign. New York Times, Washington Post, The Hill
 
Meanwhile, Flynn will appear in D.C. federal court before U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan today to be sentenced for lying to the FBI. He is unlikely to be sentenced to significant prison time. Citing his “substantial assistance” in ongoing investigations,  special counsel Robert Mueller recommended a lenient sentence for Flynn and has not asked for any jail time. The Hill, Associated Press
 
White House says Trump did not tell Erdogan he would extradite Gülen: Contradicting earlier reports regarding the meeting between President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan at the G20 summit two weeks ago, Trump reportedly did not commit to extradite Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, a Muslim cleric based in the United States. On Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Trump told Erdogan at their meeting in Buenos Aires that the United States “was working on extraditing Gulen and other people.” As reported, Erdogan blames Gulen for a failed coup in 2016. Reuters
 
Russian disinformation teams targeted Robert Mueller: According to a report prepared for the U.S. Senate, months after President Trump took office Russia’s disinformation teams trained their sights on special counsel Robert Mueller. The Russian operatives unloaded on Mueller through fake accounts on Facebook, Twitter and beyond, falsely claiming that the former FBI director was corrupt and that the allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election were crackpot conspiracies. One post on Instagram, which emerged as an especially potent weapon in the Russian social media arsenal, claimed that Mueller had worked in the past with “radical Islamic groups.” A Clemson University research team, not affiliated with either of the reports released Monday, found that the Russians tweeted about Mueller more than 5,000 times, including retweets first posted by others. Some called for his firing, while others mocked him as incompetent and still others campaigned for the end of his “entire fake investigation.” Washington Post
 
FBI wiretap recorded suspect on eve of bike path terror attack: Sayfullo Saipov, the man charged with using a truck to kill eight people on a Manhattan bike path last year, was recorded on an FBI wiretap the day before the attack and was heard on other calls going back three years, according to two court filings by defense lawyers. The filings do not reveal the contents of the conversations or whether Saipov was overheard making threats or talking about an impending attack. Still, the filings suggested that Saipov was in touch with other people under FBI surveillance. Regarding the use of surveillance and the failure to stop Saipov ahead of time, Karen J. Greenberg, director of the Center on National Security at Fordham University School of Law, said, “The question it raises in my mind is no matter how much surveillance there is, even right up to the eve of an attack, we still have not figured out exactly what it is that we’re looking for as a sign of immediate danger beyond ‘I have a gun in my pocket’ or ‘a bomb strapped to my chest.’” New York Times
 
DHS tells lawmakers they can't interview agents who detained migrant girl before she died: The Department of Homeland Security reportedly told members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus that they will not be permitted to interview Customs and Border Protection agents involved in detaining the young migrant girl who died after being taken into federal custody. Lawmakers in the caucus are scheduled to visit a remote station where Jakelin Caal Maquin, a 7-year-old Guatemalan girl, was first treated for her illness. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX) reportedly said that if lawmakers were not allowed to talk with agents during their visit on Tuesday then they could expect to be called before Congress after Democrats are back in the majority next month. The Hill, Buzzfeed
 
Schumer: no talks with Trump on shutdown: Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) on Monday said there has not been any talk with President Trump or GOP leaders on how to avoid a government shutdown, adding that Senate Republicans have “no idea what President Trump wants.” Schumer said he and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) are still waiting to hear back on the offer they made to Trump last week: either a one-year stopgap funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security or a one-year stopgap for the seven unfinished appropriations bills, which cover nearly 25 percent of the federal government. Schumer told reporters in the hallway Monday that the White House has yet to give Democrats any counter-offers to their proposals. The Hill
 
Comey criticizes GOP over Trump’s continued attacks on FBI: Former FBI director James Comey accused President Trump on Monday of trying “to burn down the entire FBI” and charged that congressional Republicans were willing accomplices for failing to challenge him. “The FBI’s reputation has taken a big hit because the president with his acolytes has lied about it constantly,” Comey told reporters, following his second closed-door interview this month with House lawmakers. Washington Post, CNN
 
U.S. sportswear traced to factory in China’s internment camps: Chinese men and women locked in a mass detention camp where authorities are “re-educating” ethnic minorities are sewing clothes that have been imported all year by a U.S. sportswear company. The Associated Press tracked recent ongoing shipments from one such factory, Hetian Taida Apparel, located inside an internment camp, to Badger Sportswear, a leading supplier in Statesville, North Carolina. Badger’s clothes are sold on college campuses and to sports teams across the country. Hetian Taida’s chairman Wu Hongbo confirmed that the company has a factory inside a re-education compound, and said they provide employment to those trainees who were deemed by the government to be “unproblematic.” Associated Press
 


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Russia, Iran, and Turkey seek deal on new Syrian constitutional body: Russia, Iran and Turkey are close to agreement on the composition of a Syrian constitutional committee that could pave the way for the drafting of a new charter followed by national elections. The foreign ministers of the three nations, who support opposing sides in Syria’s nearly eight-year war, meet for talks today in Geneva, where they are expected to seek the United Nations’ blessing for their joint proposal. Reuters
 
Erdogan renews threat to launch offensive against Kurds in U.S.-controlled territory in Syria: President Erdogan escalated his threats of a military attack on U.S.-controlled territory in northeastern Syria on Monday, while the U.S. military insisted that the two countries were “making progress” in resolving their differences. Erdogan said that President Trump had “responded positively” in a Friday telephone call to one Turkish demand - that U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish forces be moved out of the Syrian town of Manbij. But Erdogan said that Turkish operations farther to the east, where Kurdish fighters occupy a series of Syrian border towns, were ready to start an offensive “at any moment now.” Washington Post
 
Speaking to CNBC in Doha Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu maintained that Ankara would not accept continued Kurdish paramilitary presence in the area. He argued that contrary to Pentagon warnings, Turkish actions would not endanger U.S. troops working alongside the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) that his government views as a primary enemy. "But if America believes that they are the shelter, the protector of this terrorist organization, that is something else," the minister said. "And we have the channels between the militaries to avert any friendly fire or accident, we have this channel and we have good (military-to-military) cooperation as well." CNBC
 
Taliban appear ready to discuss peace talks, except with Afghan officials: Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said late Monday that Taliban representatives had “no plans to meet and will not meet with the representatives of the Kabul administration.” The Taliban have long refused to hold formal talks with the Afghan government. The militants have insisted on first brokering an agreement with the United States, which the group sees as the force that toppled their government in 2001. Afghan officials, however, said late Monday that conversations to arrange a meeting were continuing. Senior officials met the other delegations and discussed the need for “direct engagement of the Afghan government with the Taliban,” said Afghan national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib. New York Times
Related:
Washington Post: U.S. Diplomats Hold Talks with Taliban on Ending Afghanistan War
 


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Covert Saudi outreach to Israel sputters after Khashoggi's murder: A secretive U.S.-backed initiative to forge closer ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel faces setbacks after the crown prince, who spearheaded the effort, was implicated the killing of  journalist Jamal Khashoggi along with two of his aides. The two aides, former royal court adviser Saud al-Qahtani and former deputy intelligence chief Ahmed al-Assiri, reportedly played important roles in the clandestine outreach to Israel. Qahtani, as media adviser, issued directives to the Saudi press to help soften Israel’s image in the kingdom. He was also reportedly involved in the kingdom’s purchase of advanced surveillance technology from Israeli firms. Qahtani was also reportedly involved in monitoring critics and stifling dissent in Saudi Arabia, which included the hacking of electronic communications. Wall Street Journal
 
UN Security Council mulls Myanmar action: The UN Security Council is considering action to push Myanmar to work with the United Nations to address the Rohingya refugee crisis, although China and Russia have so far boycotted talks on the British-drafted resolution. The draft resolution reportedly aims to put a timeline on Myanmar to allow the return of more than 700,000 Rohingya Muslim refugees from neighboring Bangladesh. The draft resolution would warn that the UN Security Council could consider further steps, including sanctions, if there was not enough progress made by Myanmar.  It would also ask UN officials to report back on Myanmar’s progress regularly to the council. Reuters
 
Russia to move troops into new barracks on disputed islands near Japan: Russia said on Monday that it has built new barracks for troops on a disputed chain of islands near Japan and would build more facilities for armored vehicles, a move likely to anger Tokyo after it urged Moscow to reduce its military activity there. The news came after the Kremlin said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might visit Russia on January 21 as the two countries work to defuse the territorial dispute in a manner that would allow them to sign a World War II peace treaty, something the disagreement over the Pacific islands has long prevented. Soviet forces seized the four islands at the end of World War II and Moscow and Tokyo both claim sovereignty over them. Diplomats on both sides have spoken of the possibility of reviving a Soviet-era draft agreement that envisaged returning two of the four islands as part of a peace deal. Reuters
 




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Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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