Monkey / Monthly Trades

2019 Predictions

It's that time of the year when everybody has an opinion about what's going to happen in the next twelve months. At this game, one of us will be right, that's guaranteed. A bit like running a coin-flipping competition. Somebody will surely win. And that somebody will then gain the guru status of the year.

Now, if you ask for my 2019 forecast, it's going to be pretty dull: I don't know.
But how can you possibly invest without having an opinion? It's called having a process that scans everything that is traded on the planet, from international equities to commodities, real estate and bonds.
So wherever the next trend is, chances are that, on average, we will be riding it.
And no need to predict anything. So trust the process and beat the monkey.

2018

Unless you were heavily invested in Qatar (QAT) or Saudi Arabia (KSA), don't look at your 2018 statements, it is going to be bad. US (SPY) is down -4.5%, Europe (VGK) -14.9%, Emerging countries (EEM) -15.3%, Oil (USO) -19.6%, Gold (GLD) -1.9%. Only International bonds (BNDX) are positive with +2.8%.

How Did We Do?

As you can see, there was essentially no place to hide. So let's take a look at how our ETF Portfolios navigated 2018.
Remember back in November and December, our portfolios had already started to shift from equities to bonds and defensive sectors. That rebalancing helped a lot during the December's plunge.
The key takeaway for 2018 is that all our portfolios outperforms their benchmarks. In other words, they all have offered some downside protection, which is exactly what they are supposed to do in these dire situations.
On average, the three USD portfolios returned -1.70% and -2.03% for the three CAD portfolios, compared to -4.57% for S&P500 (SPY) and -8.73% for TSX60 (XIC.TO). Clearly, it paid off to follow our portfolios.

What's next for January? A lot. Our ETF Portfolios will essentially move to fixed-income with a pinch of that shiny thing.
Which ETFs? Our subscribers know! Feel free to join us for less than a cappuccino a week!

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